School standards in Wales 'to dip below Romania in 2040'

Martin Shipton

A report from a Tory-linked think tank claims that educational standards in Welsh schools are declining and that attainment levels are on course to be overtaken by Romania in 2040.

Onward UK says average Welsh pupils now perform at the same level as England’s most disadvantaged students..

The report - Devolved to Fail: The Decline of Welsh Education and the Urgent Case for Reform - states that:

PISA scores in Wales [measuring pupil performance internationally] are now lower than the OECD average in reading, science and maths – and far behind England.

Wales’ overall PISA scores are projected to fall below Romania by 2040 if current trends continue.

The average Welsh pupil performs at the same level as England’s poorest pupils, according to international benchmarks.

Wales is still using the discredited “cueing method” to teach reading – a practice abolished in England nearly two decades ago.

School absence in Wales is nearly 70% higher than in England (12% vs 7.1%), with over a third of pupils missing at least 10% of lessons.

Only half of Welsh secondary schools inspected last year had satisfactory teaching or attendance.

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Projections

Drawing on the latest OECD PISA scores and new projections to 2040, the report paints a stark picture of long-term educational decline.

This year's A-Level and GCSE results for Wales, claims the report, show a continuing and worrying trend in education outcomes in the country. The essential stagnation in A-level and GCSE pass rates are on course with Onward's findings that outcomes will continue to fall into the next decades, not only amongst UK nations, but internationally.

Wales currently ranks bottom of all UK nations across every key educational indicator. In the most recent PISA results, Welsh pupils scored 30 points lower in science, 30 points lower in reading, and 26 points lower in maths compared to pupils in England. These gaps represent the equivalent of an entire year of learning lost.

The report claims to identify key causes behind the worsening performance: the continued use of outdated literacy methods, an overly vague national curriculum, and poor school accountability due to the abolition of league tables.

Wales' school inspectorate, Estyn, found that over two-thirds of secondary schools need to improve self-evaluation, and half were found to have teaching or attendance problems.

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Reading

On the issue of teaching primary school pupils how to read, the report states: “A factor in these very different reading abilities by age 15 can be found right at the start of children’s education in the methods used to teach them to read. Wales still uses the discredited ‘cueing method’ to teach reading. This method encourages children to infer the meaning of words. Experts have found that the cueing method leads to children guessing words instead of sounding them out, with the technique being proven to damage the ability of children to learn to read.

“In fact, an ITV investigation highlighted in 2012 that Estyn had found a fifth of primary school children in Wales were functionally illiterate, and that the continued use of the cueing method risks putting more children in this position. Indeed, reading levels in Wales have significantly worsened since 2012.

“As part of this report, Freedom of Information requests were submitted to every local authority in Wales to enquire about the methods that they used to teach reading. Four local authorities then directed to the information being held only at individual primary school level, though many subsequently responded to say they did not hold the data either. Of the 73% of individual schools that responded from Newport, Blaenau Gwent, Conwy, and Flintshire, 77% reported using cuing strategies.”

Reforms

The report recommends three urgent reforms:

Turn failing schools into academies and re-introduce league tables – modelled on successful English reforms and local examples like Grŵp Llandrillo Menai in north Wales.

Replace Wales’ skills-based curriculum with a knowledge-rich one, including the mandatory use of solely phonics to improve reading.

Implement Estyn’s attendance improvement recommendations immediately to stem rising absenteeism.

Ellie Craven, senior researcher for Onward and author of the report, said: “Wales has the lowest education outcomes in the UK – and the gap is set to grow. This is not inevitable. But without urgent reform, Welsh pupils will be left behind their peers not just across the UK, but globally.”

Former Conservative Cabinet Minister Sir Simon Clarke, Director of Onward, said: “Children in Wales are being let down terribly by a system that avoids accountability and clings to failed methods. There is no reason Welsh children should achieve less than their peers elsewhere in the UK – but that will remain the case unless the Welsh Government is brave enough to deliver change, or is itself changed at next year’s elections to bring about new leadership.”

Shadow Secretary of State for Wales Mims Davies MP said: “Looking at education standards across the UK, there is a clear outlier – Wales. The UK is ranked 14th amongst OECD countries in the PISA tables. But if Wales were to be ranked as an individual country, it would come just above Vietnam in 34th place.

“A slew of reforms have been implemented in England in the last 20 years – the success of which are clear: 89% of schools in England are rated Good or Outstanding by Ofsted, compared to just 68% in 2009-10 when we came into power.

“But the Welsh Government continued with outdated practices and even made actively regressive decisions. While England moved away from cueing, Wales continues to teach with it. While England moved to a knowledge-based curriculum, Wales still uses a skills-based one. And while England introduced academies for failing schools, Wales has resisted and has even abolished league tables making it almost impossible for parents to identify which schools are failing children.

“On top of this, the impact of the pandemic means that all progress since 2012 has been wiped out.

“For over 25 years, the Labour government in Wales has overseen a deterioration of pupil performance and standards, and the difference between Wales and its neighbouring nations is only projected to get worse. “The need for change is not just urgent, but imperative, and this important report by Onward makes that crystal clear.”

'Progress'

A Welsh Government spokesperson said: “We don't recognise these claims. Our recent GCSE and A level results show improvements in attainment and record results in the top grades, and data from personalised assessments shows progress at primary stage learners.

“Wales’ education system is moving in the right direction thanks to the additional support we are providing to schools, continued investment and the hard work of school staff. We will continue working hard to raise education standards for all.”