Reform UK has narrow lead in Caerphilly by-election poll

Unfortunately the polls indicate that this is the case and people are turning away from Labour as they feel let down. I am voting tactically and voting Plaid. Much better chance another socialist party than give it to the Thatcherites right wing Reform

reform are never held to account by the press in the main and have people like musk and zuckerberg bigging them up on their platforms, GBeebies a constan hate peddler and allowed to push lies. And if there is a low turn out, that works for them. The UK has managed to demonise a very small section of society to allow these carpet baggers and circus barkers of hate in. The paymasters for reform will want payback. There is nothing for us. Buyers remorse just around the corner for a lot of voters. See the US for how bad it can get.

I'm not sure many of their potential voters actually know what Reform really stand for. The smokescreen of the small boats issue masks their real intention to roll back the state.

Deform have already done just that in the councils they run in England in the space of a few months.

Very difficult for me to understand too - but we are talking about 800 years of mental colonization.

Caer voted 57.6% Brexit so two halves of the no brainer will fly Farage's flag in Wales... I guess there is no cure but death for the stupid, mean and nasty...

Hi Amir presume you are refering the the shameful Labour Party, they have become more and more anti Wales as the years go by, maybe it's complacency that they can do whatever they want, their own personal crusades and will always have the support of the Welsh public, I don't believe Reform are the long term answer but all the older parties and yes I include Plaid Cymru in that need a major shock and reset so maybe a term with Reform will be whats needed to re align the rest.

Plaid you mean? I agree.

True

That's hardly going to happen in advance of May 2026, perhaps they could quietly suggest supporters lend their votes to Plaid.

Is that another poll prediction ? You watch, come the day it will depend a great deal on whether any of the parties can get the roughly 50% non voting electorate off its collective backside.

Well done for admitting you're bigoted Adrian. That shows a level of self awareness I wasn't sure you'd be capable of.

Aameen.

I wouldn't wish the worst on anyone, but it is a long wait for this horrible part of a generation to depart.

There is a seismic shift on the horizon when the current older demographic starts to decline more rapidly, that’s true. But look at the damage much of that generation has already inflicted on our day to day lives, unfortunately they could make that infinitely worse for the rest of us by voting in a far-right government before they shuffle off this mortal coil. What a political legacy.

Have to agree with this. it's a long road back to the levels of economic growth/prosperity of 2008, and those weren't historically that amazing. At the last GE, anytime a major party tried introduce a dose of reality, they dropped points in the polls. Public have to take a lot responsibility for not wanting to face up the challenges the country faces. On the plus side, having reform majors, councils and in the senedd hopefully will allow people to see some sense before the GE in 2029, when a reform government could do some real damage.

Getting the vote out will be key, and older voters tend to actually get to the polling station.

Absolutely, I've argued this for ages. To paraphrase the Spooky Men's Chorus "Vote to keep the bastards out". Labour voters and Lib Dems, vote Plaid if you want to preserve decency in the Senedd.

Your slavish adoration of Reform is rather pathetic. I'm starting to think that you are an employee rather than a sad English bloke with time on his hands -and a strange desire to pretend to be Welsh.

'Why then, after all of that, are our people seemingly planning to vote for their unhinged, violent of intention, ultra far right hate wing?' My guess would be: (a) the widespread and increasing utter public disillusion with the politics and the politicians which the UK has experienced during most of the last two decades which has led more and more voters to yearn for something radically different. Summed up, for me at least, by chancing to see a middle-aged middle England woman cornered by a TV reporter for a vox pop who said, simply, something along the lines of 'things are that bad in this country these days that we just need a change, and someone different in charge'. Coupled with (b) Nigel Farage's singular personal skill as a communicator, and the fascination with him which the popular news media have cultivated because they see him as good for clicks and for viewers and listeners. Resulting in them giving him way more attention and publicity than any other non-mainstream opposition politician. Sadly, he's no more than a one-man band running a private business rather than a mass movement political party, and he's surrounded himself with non-entities and sheer numpties who'll do as they're told and won't challenge his absolute supremacy over his movement, because that's the way that he operates. If his faction does achieve power it's sure to end in tears, but it might well be that we end up having to go through that experience before enough folk realize the mistake that has been made.

I had exactly the same feelings for Llanelli from day one of Stradey Park Hotel.Not the Llanelli I ever knew a town historically on the right side of History from the 1911 Railway Workers Strike,The volunteers who fought against Franco for the International Brigade and their protests against South African Rugby teams during the apartheid era.

I think we're missing something here. Reform are adept at seeding community division, where in fact it's inequality that is the problem. I would rather doubt that Caerphilly is a hotbed of racism, more that it is subject to unfunded promises of a better future. When the trade unions were strong, this would never have been able to take hold.

I've voted Labour all my life but if I lived in Caerphilly I'd be voting Plaid, no question.

They might try that line but I can't see it working. If this vote was replicated at next year's Senedd election, Labour wouldn't win a single seat in this constituency!

I just wouldn't feel safe having my children live in a community with so many of those types.

I dispute that. Gwlad cares far more, as witnessed by the fact that all we talk about is Wales, not Gaza or the global climate or all the other things except Wales that Plaid talks about.

It's perfectly disputable. PC want to cut off Wales' nose to spite Wales' face and become mean and inward-looking, not to mention quasi-communist and tank the economy even further. That's ideology, not care.

Hit the nail on the head perfectly John. A sad but accurate truth that years of media conditioning and programming has turned so many good people into rather useful drones. Simply ask a reform supporter to give you a reason, and the same old record gets played, they don't know, and worst still, they dont know that they don't know.

If you don’t want another failing Plaid MS, then I IMPLORE all people who might even be considering voting Labour, Liberal Democrat or Green to vote Reform. (one could equally say)