Reform has narrow lead over Plaid in latest Senedd poll

Good grief. I assume much of that 29% think that it won’t be them that Farage wants to send down a coal mine, or that they’ll be relying on an Americanised health insurance system or have their public services slashed further by so-called DOGE. The way Labour and the Tories have fed the Reform monster is an absolute disgrace. So depressing. RS Thomas was right.

Well it looks like Plaid and Labour are going to eat humble pie and work together to keep some semblance of decency in the Senedd.

We should be concerned about the situation but there is still just under a year to go before the election and Reform have not yet been fully scrutinised by anyone. Farage may well be the face that's seen by the Welsh public but he is not the Reform Welsh leader - there isn't one. How exactly is Farage going to bring establish a new blast furnace or reopen coal mines? It's all false talk that could come back to haunt him. I'm sure other parties will put him under extreme pressure on these issues. The fight has not begun yet but when it does I'm sure Reform's BS will see it start to struggle.

Please enlighten us.

Confirms what we already suspected. Next year's election looks like a two horse race, and hopefully Plaid end up the biggest party when all the votes have been counted. It will be vital that all of Reform's opponents quote all of Farage's past comments (admiration for Thatcher, his wish to privatise the NHS, etc.) on their election leaflets to remind everyone what he's really like. It's all to play for.

So if we knew what Reform was all about then we would all be voting for them would we?

It’s only a poll I suppose; but the previous one suggested that disaffected Labour voters were moving to Plaid. This suggests that some of them at least are heading for Reform - and it puts a rightist coalition only 7 short of a majority. Moreover if I understand the new voting system correctly, any party going north of 30% sees a disproportionate increase in the number of seats won. End of days perhaps?

I have 2 questions for Nigel Farage or Reform UK members regarding their proposal for Wales.... 1) Who will own the coal mines and steelworks, and more importantly who will profit from them? Will Reform insist that they are Welsh owned (ie owned by the Welsh Government, or by a private Welsh company), so that they have a stake in the Welsh economy and that the profits STAY in Wales and not exploited by London or a foreign company? 2) How does Reform UK plan to address Wales' brain drain? Not everyone in a First world democracy wants to work in a coal mine. Just like factories and call centres, we in Wales have a history of getting the jobs on one else wants to do. Whilst there is nothing wrong in working in these industries, and bringing jobs to a community is in no way a bad thing, trying to rebuild the past does along with a low wage economy does not bring long term economic stability. Wales needs full autonomy over its economy. In the meantime the Welsh Government irrespective of party in power should use its current powers to wherever possible drive innovation and long-term economic durability by investing in regional research hubs, supporting homegrown businesses, and linking skills training to emerging sectors like advanced manufacturing and digital technology. By prioritising locally rooted industries and strategic infrastructure, we can create resilient jobs that keep talent in Wales and future-proof our economy. Will Reform get behind this?

Those voters must be gluttons for punishment if they trust Reform UK, a party with no leader, Senedd candidates or deliverable Welsh policies? Has anyone asked these would-be voters what do they want to see Reform do in Wales? Are they basing their opinion on reading English newspapers, watching GB News, or reacting to social media posts the reason why they'd vote for such a party? Those fronting Reform UK are responsible for the very problems we face now. After all, Brexit is Nigel Farage's baby. It's caused so many economic and political issues in Wales and Britain. And if voters are using issues affecting largely England, are not getting the true picture of what's occuring in their own backyard. The boat crossing are not affecting Wales as they are South East of England. Farage has admitted so. And less we forget. Any increase in English Channel boat crossings started to balloon after we voted to leave the EU in 2016. Farage is at fault. And when the Tories came to power in 2010 those asylum seekers waiting to be processed was around 16,000, and after Brexit, rose to over 224,742 as of June 2024. And anyway, asylum seekers awaiting processing have been sent to Wales by both Conservative & Labour governments in London, not the Welsh Government, although they and Welsh local authorities have to pick up the price tag to house these poor desperate people. Also, how do we think those asylum seekers who attempted to cross the border between Northern Ireland and Republic got there in the first place? They didn't paddle across the English channel in their dingies, past Wales , along the Irish Sea to Northern Ireland, only then cross into the Republic of Ireland out of fear they'd be deported to Rawana. They were bloody flown to Northern Ireland by the Home Office. Don't they understand this simple reality? Are they that stupid? And remember the 300+ asylum seekers transferred to that ex-army barracks in South Pembrokeshire? It was the the Home Office who bypassed the Senedd and sent them there during the height of the Covid pandemic providing them with inadequate PPE supplies, only then to remove them after protests later charging the Pembrokeshire rate payers the cost of housing & removing them. See, what Reform fail to admit that most migrants were contained in Calais in effectively tented cities , who often tried and failed to get to the UK via lorries because they often were caught by hauliers with CO2 detectors before they got to the Channel Tunnel then onto England to claim asylum. Fact! I look forward leading up to any Senedd TV debates seeing Nigel Farage interviewed and cross-examined by other party leaders, as in reality if he fronts Reform's campaign as leader should be made to stand as a Senedd candidate or Reform be disqualified unless they have an official leader before campaigning starts. If Welsh Labour have any sense they'd do it. It's said that Nigel Farage will announce a Welsh leader after the Senedd election? Hypothetically speaking. Say Reform are the largest party in the Senedd, god forbid, could impose a leader on Wales not scrutinised either by other party leaders or the voting public? This is totally undemocratic Note: This is the same man, Nigel Farage, who claimed the EU were full of faceless unelected bureaucrats. Hypocrite! A thing to ponder all. Farage abusing Welsh democracy is like him campaigning as the Reform UK candidate for Clacton in Essex, winning his seat, then standing down as their MP, handing over the reigns to Tommy Robinson. I see no difference.

Cult leader David Koresh of the Branch Davidians has charisma and looked what happened to his followers in Waco, Texas.

If Rhun ap Iorwerth had any sense he would be cosying up to the Welsh Tories and Lib Dems. A coalition of the damned with Labour will rightfully finish them off.

Pa syndod. Mae Cymru yn llawn dop i'r ymylon o wladychwyr a Chymry plastig.

Not sure whether scrutiny of Reform's 'policies' would make much difference to voting intentions. Farage is popular as Boris Johnson was popular, a celebrity politician with wide brand recognition. Labour and Plaid need a tightly focused campaign now, to spell out what American style Medicaid would mean for Wales.

Think you're absolutely right, the idea that polls will shift as a belated resistance campaign gets underway misunderstands the nature of the beast. It won't be reasoned arguments that will save the day. Pictures, not prose!

I think you make some valid points even if I dissent on some matters. The fixation with Reform’s Welsh Leader and policies is a giant red herring because (a) no party can absolutely guarantee who their leader is going to be - this poll has the FM losing her seat; but I don’t see anyone asking who might replace her; (b) political parties don’t set out all their policies 11 months before an election; and (c) if this poll shows anything, it demonstrates that those minded to vote Reform simply don’t care who the Leader will be.

I disagree, this poll confirms that Adam Price is very likely to hold on to his seat next year. Also, unlike the Tories and Labour, this poll shows Plaid Cymru winning at least one seat in every constituency in Wales, which would mark a major milestone for them.

The difference between Plaid and Reform is still within the margin of error.

It's going to be tough to explain to the hard of thinking that just coming first in this race isn't enough to govern.

I find the structure of Reform interesting and its change of names. Unlike most political parties that are owned at some measure by their members, Reform is owned by a company. Interestingly, the company that owns Reform is, itself, owned by another company. This is their Electoral Commission entry - https://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/English/Registrations/PP793 Reform’s Companies House entry for “Persons with Significant Control”  https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/11694875/persons-with-significant-control So Reform is owned by another Company, “Reform 2025 Ltd”. Who owns Reform 2025? https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/16260766/officers I suspect that they both own 50% but I have not dug that deep. Who is the other owner of Reform?  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zia_Yusuf Being an immigrant myself, the only aspect of Reform that I personally like is their commitment to multiculturism shown by the fact that they are 50% owned by a Muslim immigrant.