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Reform and Plaid neck-and-neck in new Senedd poll as Greens poised for historic gains

By Emily Price
L: Reform Wales leader Dan Thomas - Image Andrew Matthews / R: Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth - Image Plaid Cymru

Emily Price

A new poll on voting intention for the Senedd election puts Plaid Cymru and Reform UK neck-and-neck with the Greens poised for historic gains.

The new survey by More in Common showed the Senedd race tightening ahead of the election on May 7.

Compared to February 10, Reform UK has dropped 5 percentage points, while Plaid Cymru has gained two - putting the two parties level on 26 per cent of the vote.

Labour remains in third place on 20 per cent and the Greens have doubled their support.

Since early February, the Green Party’s vote share has risen from 5 per cent to 10 per cent - now tying with the Welsh Conservatives.

The full results of the More in Common poll (with changes from 10 February 2026)  have Reform UK on 26% (-5), Plaid Cymru at 26% (+2), Labour on 20% (nc), the Welsh Conservative at 10% (–3), the Green Party on 10% (+5) and the Liberal Democrats on 7% (+1).

The polling was conducted using a different question wording to the language used in More in Common's February 10 survey.

Participants were asked how they plan to vote in the May 7 Senedd election, rather than how they would vote in a hypothetical Senedd election held tomorrow.

The election is considered to be the most significant in Welsh politics since devolution began in 1999.

It's marked with a shift in how Wales is governed due to a massive expansion of Wales' parliament and a total overhaul of the voting system.

Based on the voting intention polling, More in Common used the D'Hondt model to estimate how these results would play out in a real Senedd election.

Reform and Plaid Cymru are tied, each with 28 seats. Meanwhile Labour would be allocated 26 seats.

We would therefore see the first non-Labour First Minister since devolution, with Plaid Cymru leading a coalition government.

Greens could be set to win 5 seats, seeing the party represented in Wales' parliament for the first time in the Senedd’s history.

The poll's full seat breakdown shows Reform UK winning 28, Plaid Cymru on 28, Labour on 26, Welsh Conservatives on 7, the Green Party winning 5 and the Liberal Democrats on 2.

The results are based on a nationally representative survey of 851 Welsh adults (16+) fielded by More in Common from February 15 - March 3, 2026.

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31 comments

theoriginalmark

Why the hell are people in Wales voting for Reform are they really that stupid that they will vote for a rabid english nationalist party.

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David J

A lot of the voters here are english, and they don't want Cymru to be free.

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theoriginalmark

according to the 2021 Census 21.2% of the population was born in England, 660,000 and 71% born in Wales 2.2 million, Interestingly 55.2% identify as Welsh only, 16.9% identify as British only and 9.1% English only and predictably age plays a big part as well, under 50s tend to identify as Welsh while over 50s are a mixed bag, make up your own minds as to what these figures show but it doesn't look good for Welsh born and bred voters??

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Rob

I don't like Reform but I also cannot understand why some people still want to stick with Labour.

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theoriginalmark

who said anything about Labour?

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Roger

Many would very reasonably stick with Labour over Reform. But without a preference voting system it's not possible to make this preference choice.

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FloatingVoter

Its because the agenda Labour has followed for almost 30 years has long since run out of road. Change is needed. I suspect Reform won't offer a genuine fresh start but it at least claims it will. Plaid has a rather strange offering in that they propose following the same agenda as Labour but are labelling it up as "change", "fresh start", "new direction" etc. It'll be very interesting to see how this "Labour Agenda without Labour" fares when put before voters.

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Ian

851 people over 2 weeks for the whole of Wales? I will await a more substantial poll from a more trusted source.

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John Brooks

851 is quite a high sample. Polls for the whole of the UK ate typically +/- 1,,000.

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Cadwgan

No, reputable pollsters such as youGov have 2000, and use panels . YouGov is given an A rating. More in common days a D rating

Reply
Adam

If I found out that any of my family or freinds hated Wales and it's people enough to vote reform, they'd be permanently disowned. Whilst I respect a person's political choices, knowingly supporting someone this evil, sinister and messed up is just over the level.

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Jeff

Reform, where racist have a safe haven. Nige will be ok https://bylinetimes.com/2026/03/05/revealed-the-staggering-amount-of-time-nigel-farage-has-spent-on-on-second-jobs-since-becoming-an-mp/

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Rob W

Compared to other pollsters, More in Common do seem to have a track record for underestimating the Plaid vote and overestimating the Labour vote in past polls, and I suspect we'll see that again in this poll when we see other more substantial polls come out in the coming weeks.

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Rob

I worry that support for Labour may not be as weak in Wales as previously suggested. It could be people say they will vote Plaid or Green to give Starmer a bloody nose, but still revert back to them on polling day. Moreover recent events in Iran and Trump's insults towards Starmer could give Labour a boost (rally around the flag affect). It is imperative that Plaid target disillusioned Labour voters, the last thing we want is for Reform to finish as the largest party and for Plaid to be dependant on Labour to form a government.

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John Young

Well Plaid could join with the Greens ?

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Llond bôl

That would be a disaster. A radical left party joining up with far left extremists. Putin would be laughing his socks off.

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Rob W

Fortunately, there was little evidence of that happening in Caerphilly or Gorton and Denton. As for Trump and Netanyahu's illegal Iranian War, if it drags on for a long time, there is a real risk of mission creep dragging the UK further and further into taking part in the conflict, which will be very unpopular with the public (especially left leaning voters). On the other hand, if it finishes quickly, people will have largely forgotten about in a few weeks time and Trump and Starmer will be best buddies again in no time at all.

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Y Cymro

On May 7th, the Welsh electorate has a choice. If you wish to self-harm, vote Reform UK. If you want to change Wales for the better, vote Plaid Cymru. It’s quite a straightforward premise.

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Paul ap Gareth

Given that More in Common has been the polling company that has Reform doing the best. The fact they now have Reform and Plaid level is really interesting. I can't wait to see the next YouGov polling - as they publish their methodology.

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Agoriad drws

It's going to be a Plaid, Green coalition because their policies reflect the will of the people of Cymru. The Greens can win in areas where Plaid is weak.

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Llond bôl

What a disaster that would be.

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Roger

It won't be popular in some quarters but with London Labour in Westminster the smart move is to have Welsh Labour as a junior coalition partner, and deputy FM, to meditate and facilitate with the purse holders.

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theoriginalmark

we have labour in westminster and labour in Cardiff, I haven't seen any benefit from that set up, refusing devolution of crown estate, no money from hs2 & more rail improvements announced for england being declared a englandwales project, no devolution of policing & law, can't see what having labour as a coalition partner would do for wales, they've had 26 years to improve our position and have failed miserably.

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In reply to theoriginalmark

Roger

Because Welsh Labour are a regional chapter of UK Labour so aren't free to speak freely or stand up for Wales without appearing disloyal and being punished for that disloyalty by being ignored even more. Meanwhile a Plaid-only government is free to speak freely and appear stand up for Wales but will be ignored without consequence for UK Labour as the SNP were by Boris because there's no constitutional obligation to do the right thing. But a Plaid-led coalition government can say what needs to be said while their Welsh Labour junior partner works with UK Labour behind the scenes to "keep the peace" meaning doing deals to stop Plaid humiliating Starmer on prime time TV. Because central government isn't a serious government. It's a public schoolboy private members club that has to be treated like a naughty child to get anything done.

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Cadwgan

Well we see the Labour -Labour idiocy in Deeside. They are going to build a New Railway station 2km from the existing Hawarden Bridge station. No one uses Hawarden Bridge, because it has no car park. There are 2 private ones right next to the station. Could they just buy a car park back? No Labour are going to build a brand new station right next to the English border. Why?

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In reply to Cadwgan

Roger

Hawarden Bridge is too close to Shotton (which serves two lines) and too far from the industrial estae to be useful for anyone. And it's too badly connected by road to become an attractive park and ride for Liverpool. It makes sense to close it once the parkway station is built.

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Guess Again

Don't be stupid! Be a smartie! Join the Russian asset party!

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Richard Lice

Reform supporters must be itching to go canvassing en masse but probably aware without any declared candidates it wont sit well You can just imagine the bag of spanners they will be serving up The poor sap who is the No 6 choice for Reform in Ceredigion 😂

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Jeff

Reform run Kent council has started to flog off the family silver, works of art owned by the council has gone. What do you think reform will do with Wales.

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Roger

Abolish it

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Replying to Adam Cancel

If I found out that any of my family or freinds hated Wales and it's people enough to vote reform, they'd be permanently disowned. Whilst I respect a person's political choices, knowingly supporting someone this evil, sinister and messed u...

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