Poll shows support for Welsh independence running at 41%, excluding don't knows

Martin Shipton

A new poll commissioned by YesCymru has revealed some of the highest levels of support for Welsh independence ever recorded, with 41% of decided voters saying they would vote for independence if a referendum were held tomorrow.

The poll, conducted by Redfield and Wilton Strategies, showed wide discrepancies in support for independence according to the age of those polled.

While people aged between 25 and 34 would back a Yes vote by 72% to 28%, those aged 65 and over would vote No by 80% to 20%.

Other age groups also varied in their support for independence, with those aged 18 to 24 backing it by 53% to 47%; those aged 35-44 opposing it by 55% to 45%; those aged 45 to 54 opposing it by 65% to 35%; and those aged 55 to 64 opposing it by 59% to 41%.

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Conservative voters

Those who voted Conservative in the 2024 general election opposed independence by 75% to 25%; those who voted Labour were almost evenly split, with 49% backing independence and 51% opposing it; those who voted Plaid Cymru backing it by 89% to 11%; those who voted Lib Dem opposing it by 64% to 36%; those who voted for Reform UK opposing it by 89% to 11%; those who voted Green opposing it by 69% to 31%; those who backed other parties opposing independence by 83% to 17%; and non-voters being nearly evenly split with those who would vote No outnumbering those who would vote Yes by 51% to 49%.

Men would oppose independence by 59% to 41%, while women would oppose it by 58% to 42%.

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'Milestone moment'

Reacting to the poll results, YesCymru Chair Phyl Griffiths said: “This poll is a milestone moment for the Welsh independence movement. It shows that support is growing at a fast pace, up five points from the same company’s poll last year, and that nearly half of working-age adults now have confidence in Wales’s ability to govern itself. We’re witnessing a real shift in attitudes, and people across Wales are ready to have a serious conversation about independence.”

Kiera Marshall, aged 26, who hopes to be a Plaid Cymru Senedd candidate in 2026 and will be speaking at the next March for Independence in Barry on April 26, said: “As a young person living in Wales, I want a future where decisions about our lives are made here, not in Westminster.

"My generation has too often been overlooked and let down by decisions made far away, so it’s no surprise to me that 72% of people in my age group now support independence. It’s no longer a fringe idea, it’s now the majority view among my generation in Wales. We want a better, fairer future for our country.”

Mark Hooper, a Plaid councillor in Vale of Glamorgan who is one of the organisers of the March for Independence in Barry, said: “The energy behind this movement is growing, with every march, every conversation, and now, with this poll, the data backs it up. The March for Independence in Barry on 26 April, just three weeks away, will be a chance for people across Wales to come together and show that this support is real, it’s rising, and it’s unstoppable.”

Redfield & Wilton Strategies conducted an online poll for YesCymru of 1000 adults aged 18+ in Wales between March 24 and March 27 2025.