Plaid Cymru leads Reform by 3% in new Senedd poll

Martin Shipton

Plaid Cymru lead Reform UK by three percentage points, according to a new Senedd election poll undertaken by Beaufort Research for Nation.Cymru.

The latest results show a slight increase in support for Plaid Cymru (up to 30% of the vote, from 29% in Beaufort’s last poll completed in February 2026), while Reform UK is unchanged on 27%, followed by Labour on 17% (down from 20%).

The Green Party is now polling at 11% (up from 7% in February) while the Conservatives have slipped back slightly to 9% (10% in February). The Liberal Democrats have increased their support a little to 6% (5% in January), while 2% say they would vote for some other party (1% in January).

The figures add up to 102% instead of 100% because of rounding.

The Beaufort poll, which asked ‘If there were a Senedd (Welsh Parliament) Election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?’ confirms that Plaid Cymru’s leader Rhun ap Iorwerth is on course to become First Minister after the Senedd election on May 7. Current First Minister Eluned Morgan is predicted to lose her seat.

As usual, levels of support for parties differ depending on region, gender, age, social grade and whether those polled are Welsh speakers or not.

In North and Mid Wales, Plaid Cymru leads with 34%, followed by Reform on 19%, the Conservatives on 13%, Labour on 12%, the Liberal Democrats and Greens both on 9% and others on 4%.

In South West Wales and the Valleys, Plaid leads with 35%, with Reform on 33%, Labour on 17%, the Greens and Conservatives both on 6%, the Lib Dems on 3% and others on 0%.

In Cardiff and South East Wales, Reform lead with 25%, ahead of Labour on 21%, the Greens on 20%, Plaid Cymru on 16%, the Conservatives on 10%, the Lib Dems on 6% and others 2%.

Among males, Reform and Plaid Cymru jointly lead with 29% each, , followed by Labour on 19%, Conservatives on 10%, Lib Dems and Greens on 6% each and others on 2%.

Females, on the other hand, put Plaid in the lead with 31%, followed byReform on 24%, the Greens on 16%, Labour on 14%, the Conservatives on 8%, the Lib Dems on 5% and others 1%.

Among those aged 16 to 34, Plaid leads with 36%, followed by the Greens on 27%, Labour 16%, Reform 11%, Lib Dems 6%, the Conservatives 4% and others 0%.

For people aged 35 to 54, Reform leads with 35%, ahead of Plaid Cymru on 21%, Labour on 16%, Greens 13%, the Conservatives and Lib Dems both on 6%, and others on 2%.

For people aged 55 and over, Plaid Cymru leads with 31%, followed by Reform on 28%, Labour 17%, Conservatives 12%, Lib Dems 6%, Greens 4% and others 2%.

Among those in the more prosperous ABC1 social grades, Plaid leads with 29%, followed by Reform on 23%, Labour on 19%, the Greens on 11%, the Conservatives on 9%, the Lib Dems on 7% and others 1%.

Meanwhile, among those in the less prosperous C2DE social grades, Reform leads with 32%, followed by Plaid on 30%, Labour 13%, Greens 10%, the Conservatives 9%, Lib Dems 3% and others 2%.

Welsh speakers

Among Welsh speakers, Plaid leads with 44%, followed by Reform on 21%, Labour 13%, the Greens on 8%, the Conservatives 7%, the Lib Dems 4% and others 3%.

But among those who cannot speak Welsh, Reform is in the lead with 29% support, followed by Plaid on 25%, Labour on 18%, the Greens 12%, the Conservatives 9%, Lib Dems 6% and others 1%.

A projection of seats based by Cavendish Cymru on the poll findings suggests that Plaid Cymru would win 37 seats, Reform UK 30, Labour 15, the Conservatives 6, the Green Party 6 and the Liberal Democrats 2.

A geographical breakdown would see seats in the 16 “super constituencies” distributed as follows:

Afan Ogwr Rhondda: Reform 2; Labour 2; Plaid Cymru 2.

Bangor Conwy Môn: Plaid Cymru 3; Reform 2; Conservatives 1.

Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni: Plaid Cymru 2; Labour 2; Reform 1; Green 1.

Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd: Reform 2; Plaid Cymru 2; Liberal Democrats 1; Labour 1,

Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf: Plaid Cymru 2; Reform 1, Labour 1, Green 1, Lib Dem 1.

Caerdydd Penarth: Plaid Cymru 2; Reform 2; Labour 1; Green 1,

Casnewydd Islwyn: Reform 2; Plaid Cymru 2; Labour 1; Green 1.

Ceredigion Penfro: Plaid Cymru 3; Reform 2; Conservatives 1.

Clwyd: Reform 2; Plaid Cymru 2; Labour 1; Conservatives 1/

Fflint Wrecsam: Reform 2; Plaid Cymru 2; Labour 1; Conservatives 1.

Gwynedd Maldwyn: Plaid Cymru 4; Reform 2.

Gŵyr Abertawe: Reform 2; Plaid Cymru 2; Labour 2.

Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg: Reform 2; Plaid Cymru 2; Labour 1; Conservative 1.

Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr: Reform 2; Plaid Cymru 2, Labour 2.

Sir Fynwy Torfaen: Reform 2; Labour 1; Plaid Cymru 1; Conservatives 1; Green 1.

Sir Gaerfyrddin: Plaid Cymru 4; Reform 2.

Fieldwork was undertaken between March 2 and March 22 2026. The voting intention data is based on 459 adults aged 16+ out of the total survey sample of 1,000 who expressed a preference for a party and were 9 or 10 out of 10 in terms of certainty to vote at a Senedd election, so it excludes those who would not vote, prefer not to say who they’d vote for, do not know how they’d vote or who scored 0-8 in terms of certainty to vote.