Plaid Cymru leads new Senedd poll with Conservatives in 4th place

Let's not forget the point made in the article - margin of error. PC Labour and Reform are essentially tied. This does not surprise me. The real interest now is the prefence vote which this poll does not show. Polling technique needs to catch up.

By 2026 it is likely that Labour will be in quite a difficult situation so even more Labour voters will be jumping ship. The question will be will they go to a party like Reform that are about division and building walls or Plaid that is looking to address issues such as poverty and have a platform of inclusion.

Less than 1/4 of those asked support any one of the political parties, but less than 1/4 of those asked may not bother to turn up and vote. With the vast increase in members they'll soon outnumber the voters!

Rhun is the most talented leader of any political party in the UK. However, now that he has consolidated his position, he must tackle some sacred cows—chief among them, the perception that Plaid Cymru has a bias towards Welsh speakers. Whether or not this bias exists is beside the point; the perception undeniably does. To address this, all parties should come together to sign a concordat on supporting the Welsh language, allowing Plaid Cymru to disentangle itself from being seen as the sole custodian of it. Then, a major rebrand should follow, with The Party of Wales or another accessible name being adopted for English usage. Talk to people in pubs in the Valleys—they will tell you this matters. This approach would free the party to focus on broader issues and connect with a wider audience while ensuring the language remains a shared national priority.

The Welsh election in 2026 is going to be very interesting Plaid should push home Labour are only interested in your vote and then do nothing for Wales hence the denying of our share of the money for H S 2 on par with Scotland and Northern Ireland labour has the same stance as the Tories for us Tories in Wales are finished now the Spiv Farage and Reform former leader of the Fruitcake party that took us out if the E U always on that right wing Channel G B news on the subject of G B News my mate texted me this morning he said have a look at the Xmas trees in G B News the baubles are nothing to do with Xmas Blue for Tory Union jacks on them and G B on them still trying to figure out what the Great is G B news nothing great about it

A very promising poll, but still plenty of work for Plaid to do over the next 18 months.

As always in Wales there's a clear centre-left/left majority. However, if the Greens and Lib Dems get over 11% that maybe a wasted vote with no MSs. Voting Green in 2026 could do the same as voting Green in the 2000 US GE which split the vote and gave the Presidency to Bush - this time in favour of Reform. Problem for Plaid with their bending over backwards to the farmers, backing the crazy idea of slaughtering thousands of wild animals to combat TB and supporting the farmers in their pollution of rivers with phosphates, looks unlikely they'll be able to attract many Green voters.

Just another opinion poll. Plaid easily duped into thinking all is well, end up easing off on the effort and catch a serious cold on the only polling day that matters. Wakey wakey boys and girls. Time to start cranking up the effort and keep the pot boiling to the bitter end. That sounds too much like hard work.

It's very likely there will have to be some sort of coalition in 2026. Across Europe many progressive parties are working closely together to stop the populist far right from gaining power. It could well happen here too. Independence is a must but we are also at a crossroads - progressive parties must start delivering noticeable changes now to improve the quality of people's lives or face some very undesirable characters in power in the next few years. It's already happened in the States. Let that be a warning.

Drakeford must be rueing the day he agreed to the 96 seat closed list Senedd in the period of Spring 2022. He seriously miscalculated as he probably did not think Reform would rebound to their current levels in the polls. He assumed that Reform would not get more than 12% of the Senedd vote and hoped that this would keep them out completely. This latest poll confirms that so called 'Welsh Labour' have lost so much ground to Reform that remarkably Plaid Cymru now take top spot!

This is good but to continue to increase a lead and keep Reform out they need to build their policy platform and put forward a real, tangible vision for a new Wales. They need to counter the rightwing populism of Farage with a leftwing populism that will actually improve the lives of Welsh people.

There's lots to talk about here; Reform being where it is should be central to any discussion. They're clearly going to suck up the Labour discontent in the Valleys which makes it very difficult for Plaid; because the likelihood is Plaid will go into coalition or support Labour. That will count against them at the ballot box because Fartage will get up and tell voters thats what will happen. Why would discontent Labour voters support a party that will support the party they're unhappy with? There's also no reason for Labour to agree to a Plaid FM if in coalition. Labour has a better PR machine and while they're in power in Westminster they ultimately call the shots here. They can gatekeep essentially and there's nothing Plaid can do about that. Of course this all could be upset if Plaid create an agreement around the budget. That'll also feed the Reform vote.

Do you believe the earth is flat by any chance?

This bonkers voting system will inevitably lead to a permanent Plaid-Labour coalition.

By the time of the next Senedd election in 2026 cones around Welsh Labour being in power by then for 27 years will struggle to argue to voters than they can offer change with their record. With the recent polling showing Plaid Cymru in the lead, both Welsh Labour second , Liberals barely hanging on, and the Welsh Conservatives in the last resort saloon, has anyone asked what is Reform UK's policies baring in mind most who are candidates are likely ex-Conservatives or those hostile to devolution. One of a Reform UK's wishlist is their policy is scrapping net zero. They argue how they will use the money to reinvest in public services, but this can also mean allowing more open cast mining and exploiting our resources. They also state. We will build the M4 relief road. But out of what? If the Welsh Labour Government couldn't and Boris Johnson promised & lied, where out of the Welsh block is over £1.4 billion coming from? New train stations are promised but no mention of new lines or rail electrification. It's all very vague akin to me saying. If you vote for me I will give every voter free 60 in TV. Oh , and seeing they offer the Welsh voter a contract he would be duty-bound. Only problem with that is. The voters of Clacton voted Nigel Farage as their MP, and since then has refused to see his constituents falsely stating he was told not to fit security reasons, which is a lie, favouring campaigning stateside for Donald Trump when he should be serving those who elected him as their representative not Donald Tump. So a Welsh voter would you trust such a man who promises riches beyond your wildest dreams out of a briefcase in a pub. And regarding devolution. No mention of further powers to the Senedd, just indications that they want smaller government and wish to devolve powers away. Which to me means by stealth reversing devolution. The very policy that UKip & Brexit party favoured. They are also hostile to more Senedd members even though with the increase MSs and change of voting system will aid them as it did when they won 7 list seats. And who can recall how successful having UKip/Brexit Party AMs were. There was Infighting, corruption, with UKip/Brexit Party Senedd members often not even bothering to turn up to the Senedd chamber to work. And talking about UKip/Brexit party members. One Nathan Gill , so-called leader of Reform UK in Wales, a man who argued that immigrants who come to Britain should learn English, the very same hypocrite who arrogantly admitted he refused pointblank to learn Welsh when he migrated from England to Welsh speaking Ynys Mon. Nathan Gill will again be hoping to win a seat in 2026. The very same man as said who missed vital Senedd debates & votes opting to troll the EU with Nigel Farage whist still receiving a then Assembly as well as his EU parliament wage whilst undermined the Senedd often calling for its abolition and return of direct rule. So basically Reform UK is a rehash of the Brexit party, which is a rehash of UKip, which is an offshoot of the British Nationalist Party. Sure, voters in Wales can elect Reform UK, its self harm in a way but I can confidently predict the only ones who will benefit are Reform UK not Wales, the Welsh people, or indeed Welsh democracy. And I'll end on this. Remember. Nigel Farage has admitted, as he did when he led UKip & Brexit party, that the Senedd is merely a steppingstone to Westminster. So basically we are something to be trodden. Happy being a Reform doormat Wales? Wales only hope is a majority Plaid Cymru Welsh Government and a First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth in 2026, otherwise it's more of the same sloth Welsh Labour rule, or worse, a Reform UK/ Conservative coalition, and then watch the proverbial hit the fan.

Whilst this is indeed a positive sight, the combined vote for Reform and the Tories is deeply worrying. This is only driving my enthusiasm to help Plaid, to get the message out there that Plaid are the only party for Cymru and the ones who want an end to the plight of poverty here. We all must do our part. Be it big or small.