Plaid Cymru lead ahead of Caerphilly by-election - poll

Cliche I know but the only poll that matters is the one on polling day. But Plaid have a excellent local candidate in Lindsay Whittle - who would certainly contrast favourably with the notorious carpetbagger Mark Reckless (if Reform do select him).

Encouraging to see that it isn't Reform in the lead, at least if the findings of this poll are accurate.

Politics is changing rapidly and todays Reform conference will show their focus - sponsored by Heathrow Airport, so highlights no interest in Green / Sustainability issues. A lot can happen before the Senedd election next year - if there was a massive jobs boost to Wales from an international organisation choosing Wales for expansion then the political focus may change from flags / economic migrants on boats etc.

Not surprised by this news at all as I said yesterday only the thick and the traitors support the far right English Nationalist Party and there aren’t anywhere near enough of those in the Rhymney Valley.

This confirms what I suggested in a previous article, that this would be a two horse race between Plaid and Reform. So if anyone in Caerphilly is still considering voting for Labour, you know what you need to do if you don't want Reform to win. As things stand, Labour are toast, so it's no wonder they're having trouble finding a sacrificial lamb to stand for election.

That is not a good sign for Labour at all... and seems to tie in with current polling predictions of how the Senedd elections might go...

Nice to see the population of this area are far more civilised and intelligent than those in Llanelli.

Reform will outspend the other parties and bus in supporters from England. They will be relying on 'Google Maps' a lot as they will not know the area & struggle with Welsh names (genuinely!). Caerphilly as a constituency has a lot of challenges and the Senedd certainly needs to step up in delivery next year for such areas, but a Reform MS will only create division and offer zero hope.

Good news. The key question Caerffili electors should ask in relation to the Senedd by-election on October 23rd is: Which candidate will best – with enthusiasm, determination and integrity - stand up for Caerffili and Wales if elected? In view of local candidate Lindsey Whittle’s undisputed record of excellent and conscientious service to the electors of Caerffili and to Wales for decades, it is virtually impossible to imagine any other candidate becoming anywhere near to being so deserving of becoming Caerffili’s Senedd Member. 

Whilst the conclusions are perfectly plausible. The analysis here doesn’t really amount to much. Whilst polls are perfectly valid, the truth is in Wales there just aren’t really enough of them publicly available to establish much of a trend. The one cited was nearly 3 months ago compared to Uk wide polls that are published almost every day. It’s not even the most recent one, there have been two subsequent polls that arguably paint a different picture. Yes they had smaller sample sizes but seems strange to ignore them given that one it seems was actually commissioned by Nation Cymru. The 2021 comparator for national swing whilst also fine in theory also doesn’t really help us that much here as it doesn’t provide a particularly good indicator as to how well Reform will do as they pretty much weren’t on the scene then.

Good news, but Plaid cannot be complacent and take this for granted. Regarding Mark Reckless does he not live in England? Hasn't the law changed so that you now have to live in Wales to stand as a Senedd member?