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Plaid Cymru and Reform neck-and-neck in new Senedd poll

By Mark Mansfield
L: Reform Wales leader Dan Thomas - Image Andrew Matthews / R: Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth - Image Plaid Cymru

Reform UK has drawn level with Plaid Cymru in the race to become the largest party in the Senedd, according to a new ITV Cymru Wales poll.

The YouGov survey, carried out in partnership with Cardiff University, puts both parties on 29% of the vote, with Reform gaining two points and Plaid dropping four since the last poll.

Modelling based on the new d’Hondt electoral system suggests Reform would win 37 seats and Plaid Cymru 36, leaving both short of a majority just over two weeks before voters go to the polls on May 7.

Labour remains in third place on 13%, which would translate into 12 seats, although the projections suggest Welsh leader Eluned Morgan would lose her seat.

The Green Party is on 10%, equating to seven seats, while the Conservatives are on 8% and forecast to win three seats. The Liberal Democrats are on 6%, which would see leader Jane Dodds returned as the party’s sole MS.

Despite the tight race at the top, experts said the pathway to forming a government could differ significantly between the two leading parties.

Dr Jac Larner, of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, said: “This poll shows another small drop in support for Plaid Cymru, putting them level with Reform UK at 29%.

“But taken alongside the broader polling trend, the signal is clear: the race for the largest party remains between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, with every other party competing for a distant third place and below.

“What that framing obscures, however, is that finishing first may matter less than it appears. Whichever party leads on seats will face the same coalition arithmetic, and that arithmetic is far more favourable to Plaid than to Reform.”

Working majority

He added that Plaid could potentially form a working majority with Labour and the Greens, while Reform had fewer viable partners.

ITV Cymru Wales political editor Adrian Masters said the poll would “galvanise” both frontrunners.

“Reform UK will use it to urge its supporters to make its gain a reality in terms of votes,” he said.

“While Plaid Cymru’s drop won’t necessarily be unwelcome, it may shake up any complacency that has crept in.”

He added that the election appeared set to be a “change election”, with voters signalling a desire for something different.

'Defining moment'

A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said the poll reinforced the party’s view that the election had become a straight contest between Plaid and Reform.

“This is a defining moment – a choice between two very different futures,” they said.

“Plaid Cymru will be working hard to earn people’s support over the next two weeks and make the case for new leadership under Rhun ap Iorwerth.”

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31 comments

Llynn

There's 16 constituencies and just 7 Green seats meaning a majority of constituencies will see voting Green helping Reform. Plaid need to hammer this message.

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Rob

Its Labour voters that Plaid need to target

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Llynn

No as they will get seats in most constituencies.

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Leigh Richards

Which they did in the Caerphilly by-election

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Connoisseur of Understatement

Owing to the way votes get counted in the D'Hondt system, especially for the 6th seat to be decided in each superconstituency, some Plaid Cymru supporters will vote Green in order to stop Reform from getting the 6th seat (on the premise that all of Plaid Cymru's votes will have been used up in the first 5 rounds). Likewise, some Reform supporters will vote Conservative in order to stop Plaid Cymru from getting the 6th seat (on the equivalent premise about Reform's votes in the first 5 rounds). The choice — whether to vote *for* your favourite party or to vote tactically *against* your least favourite party — has to be made according to your best guess about how many of the people who share your political leanings have thought about this 6th-seat complexity. And your best guess about their best guesses…

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Charlie

Tactically voting Green to try and deny Reform a 6th seat is a gamble that may well fail but definitely increases the chance of them "winning" the election on vote share instead.

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Llynn

Plaid voters switching to the Greens a party which honestly has zero chance of getting a seat in most constituencies is crazy. Especially when polls are showing Plaid's vote is falling.

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Undecided

Not so everywhere. It’s perfectly possible for Plaid (or anyone) to pick up 6th seats depending upon the circumstances. There is also a danger of grossly over estimating the sophistication of the electorate. A probable majority don’t even understand how the new system basically operates, let alone the vagaries of d’Hondt and 6th seats.

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Undecided

Dr Larner is wrong. It matters very much who is the largest party. If it is Reform, then that sets a dire tone for the next five years and will undermine the functioning of the Senedd. We don’t need to be told (yet again) that Reform has few, if any, friends to form a government. That misses the central point completely.

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Charlie

They are desperate for a stolen election narrative.

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Crwtyddol

You're correct, A la Trump. If they do win, give them a go. The mess they'll make will teach the electorate an expensive but worthwhile, long lastig lesson

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In reply to Crwtyddol

Rob

That strategy didn't work for the Americans did it.

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In reply to Crwtyddol

Philip Evans

People haven’t learn the lessons of Brexit so why do you think they won’t shoot themselves in the foot once again.

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In reply to Crwtyddol

Padi Phillips

If there was the slack to be able to do that, then that might not be a bad thing,but coming on top of 16 years of ideological austerity which itself is built on nigh on half a century of neoliberal nonsense the last thing the Welsh people need is a ramshackle government of reprobates and crooks. It's one thing for the idiots who vote Reform to suffer, but when it takes down the rest of us too, then it's beyond a joke and there is no guarantee that the cretins who vote Reform wouldn't vote for that party again. As it is, if the polling is correct, Reform will still do untold damage to Cymru, even if they don't form a government. I think we're going to need a grassroots resistance movement to counter Reform.

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Leigh Richards

On these figures, and in every other poll in recent weeks. Reform have no pathway to power. Even if the tories jump into bed with them it would only give a Reform/tory alliance 40 Senedd seats.....some way short of the 49 required to have a bare majority. In contrast Plaid's pathway to power is very clear. So those people who are thinking of voting for Farage's party on May 7th might then want to ask themselves what is the point of doing so?

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Guess Again

The 'party of choice' sure likes to limit parental choice when it suits them... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8r46y1y83ro

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Rob

Rhun ap Iorwerth may be doing well in the debates and comes across as a credible alternative, but I do wonder about the strategy. A lot of the focus seems to be on attacking Reform UK, which is understandable, but the bigger opportunity might actually be with Welsh Labour voters who are on the fence. I’ve said this before, plenty of people say they will vote Plaid as a way of sending a message to Keir Starmer, but when it comes to polling day they drift back to Labour. Those are the voters that Plaid really need to go after. Make the case for a positive vision for Wales (which in fairness they have), but emphasise how it’s different, and contrast it with what feels like more of the same from Labour. If Plaid can win over that middle ground, it not only helps them come out on top, it also makes it harder for Reform to paint Plaid and Labour as basically the same thing. Feels like that’s where this election will be decided.

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Blinedig

The news media has played a large role in giving the obnoxious fascists free publicity. If they should win, I'm giving up on Cymru, and maybe on life too.

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Adam

The fact they have the media firmly in their pockets shows how deep their dangerous rabbit hole goes.

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Thepnr

There's every chance that this poll will be as wrong as the only poll before the Caerphilly by-election was. It gave Reform a 4 point lead at 43% to 38% just over a week before the election and yet on the day Plaid Cymru won by 47.4% to 36%. The simple truth is people don't particularly like Reform and when it comes down to it there could be tactical voting specifically to stop them winning.

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Jeff

Reform get their foot in the door, Wales is done. Farage wants to sell off the NHS, the people that own farage want to sell us medical care. You want A+E, comes with a price, you want meds, at a price. You want insulin, cheap now, it will put you in the price bracket where you will have to sell everything then die. Latest deal with the US is already going to cost the UK billions more, and farage is owned by the people that make that profit.

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Llawenydd

I'm a Welsh woman living in Staffordshire and have been living under a Reform controlled council for almost a year. Please, Cymru, do not believe what they say. They are recycled Tories who will cut public services to help their wealthy friends. They will try to reduce the little independence that Cymru has. If you want to vote out Labour then vote Plaid Cymru/Greens/Lib Dems but not Reform. I have the seen the damage they can do.

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Elfed75

I’m surprised how little the imprisoned former Welsh reform-ukip leader is being mentioned. Something that really cuts through to reform voters

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Gwyn Hopkins

To have as many as 39 Reform UK Members, nearly all with no political experience whatsoever at Senedd level, will very likely be disastrous for our Senedd. It's frightening to imagine the disruption that lot would cause. The party's election posters declare that "Wales needs Reform". Yes - like a hole in the head!

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Jeff

Don't forget that Senedd Committees will be staffed by people voted in even if they do not control the Senedd, that means Reform dragging their knuckles along the committee room corridors to sit gleefully on panels and try to wreck process and law following orders from the US think tanks. I have read the minutes of what one Tory was up to in one meeting on plastic pollution a few tears back. Really dim.

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Y Cymro

Plaid Cymru: nation builders. Reform UK: destroyers. It’s potential versus populism. Hope over hate. That’s the stark choice we all face on May 7th: self‑respect or self‑harm. Do we put Wales first - or Nigel Farage? Wales wins with Plaid; we lose with Reform.

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Karl

The BBC created what is now reform fascism. Evil Corp nobody should fund.

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Padi Phillips

The BBC certainly didn't help with their sometimes fawning coverage of Farage and his loons,but in fairness, they are required to cover all political persuasions who make the grade to be able to have broadcasts. The BBC did not create Reform fascism, Reform UK managed that all by themselves. Apart from sometimes dodgy news and current affairs coverage, the BBC is world class in terms of what it produces and at very reasonable cost. If you want an 'Evil Corp' try GB News or TalkTV

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Jeff

Add in Daily Heil, Telegraph, Murdoch empire Musk, Facebook. Networks are insidious and do not rely on a single in, they use multiple ways. Including lobbying governments, see Palantir in UK networks.

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Richard Lice

Don't believe that 1 poll for one moment reflects the current position Prior to Caerphilly, Plaid and Reform were chalked up as joint Evens money favs Post Caerphilly the odds on Plaid shortend dramatically and Reform pushed out to 2-1 By the time the underwhelming Thomas was appointed leader drifted to 3-1 Reform's odds further drifting with the selection of lightweight candidates. Plaid are today still nailed on short price favs by some margin 1-7 on. In bookies parlance they are already home and hosed but let's not be complacent . https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/welsh-politics/senedd-election/most-seats

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Adam

Unfortunately, seeing that the majority of voters were thick enough to support Farage for brexit, I've little faith that they'll get a magic dose of intelligence ready for the elections. It's obvious that Cymru ends completely if reform gain power.

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Dr Larner is wrong. It matters very much who is the largest party. If it is Reform, then that sets a dire tone for the next five years and will undermine the functioning of the Senedd. We don’t need to be told (yet again) that Reform has fe...

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