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New Senedd election poll puts Labour in the lead - with Reform snapping at their heels

By Mark Mansfield
Welsh Labour in the Senedd Chamber- Image Senedd Cymru

Martin Shipton

A new poll on voting intention at a Senedd election has put Labour in the lead, three percentage points ahead of Reform UK, with Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives six points and seven points further behind.

The poll, carried out for Nation.Cymru by Beaufort Research, saw Labour on 27%, Reform on 24%, Plaid Cymru on 18% and the Conservatives on 17%. Both the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party were polling at 6% and other parties were on a total of 2%.

It follows a recent YouGov poll that showed the four leading parties bunched together, with Plaid Cymru leading Labour by one percentage point, with Reform and the Conservatives not far behind.

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Variations

In our Beaufort poll, there were marked variations in voting intention according to the region where people live, as well as their gender, age, social grade and whether they could speak Welsh or not.

For the purposes of the poll, Wales was divided into three regions: North and Mid Wales (Wrexham, Flintshire, Denbighshire, Conwy, Ynys Môn, Gwynedd, Powys and Ceredigion), South West Wales and the Valleys (Carmarthenshire, Pembrokeshire, Swansea, Neath & Port Talbot, Bridgend, Rhondda Cynon Taf, Merthyr Tydfil, Caerphilly and Blaenau Gwent ) and Cardiff and South East Wales (Cardiff, Vale of Glamorgan, Torfaen, Monmouthshire and Newport).

In North and Mid Wales, Plaid Cymru and Reform jointly led with 24% each, Labour was on 21%, the Conservatives 18%, the Greens were on 8% and the Lib Dems on 4%.

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The Valleys

In South West Wales and the Valleys, Reform and Labour were very close on 28% and 27% each, followed by Plaid Cymru on 19%, the Conservatives on 13%, the Lib Dems on 6% and the Greens on 4%.

In Cardiff and South East Wales, Labour had a strong lead with 34%, the Conservatives were in second place with 23%, Reform were on 16%, Plaid Cymru on 10%, the Lib Dems on 8% and the Greens 6%.

Among male voters, Labour narrowly led with 28%, followed by Reform on 27%, the Conservatives on 20%, Plaid Cymru on 10%, the Lib Dems on 7% and the Greens on 6%.

Labour also narrowly led among women voters with 27%, with Plaid Cymru in close second place on 26%, Reform on 20%, the Conservatives on 15%, the Greens on 6% and the Lib Dems on 5%.

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Age group

There were also marked differences in voting intention according to which age group people were in.

In the 16-34 age range, Labour had a strong lead with 37% of the vote, followed by Plaid Cymru on 21%, Reform on 17%, the Conservatives on 9%, the Greens on 9% and the Lib Dems on 7%.

Among voters aged between 35 and 54 , Labour again led with 32% of the vote, followed by Plaid Cymru on 21%, Reform on 19%, the Conservatives on 15%, the Lib Dems on 8% and the Greens on 4%.

Reform led among those aged over 55 with 29%, followed by the Conservatives on 22%, Labour very close behind on 21%, Plaid Cymru on 15%, Greens on 6% and the Lib Dems on 5%.

In terms of social grade, Labour led among those in the more prosperous ABC1 category, with 28%, followed by the Conservatives on 23%, Plaid Cymru on 18%, Reform on 15%, the Greens on 7% and the Lib Dems on 6%.

Reform led among the less prosperous C2DE category with 34%, followed by Labour on 26%, Plaid Cymru on 17%, the Conservatives on 11%, the Lib Dems on 6% and the Greens on 5%.

Plaid Cymru had a lead among Welsh speakers with 31%, followed by Labour on 24%, Reform on 17%, the Conservatives on 16%, the Lib Dems on 6% and the Greens on 5%.

Among non-Welsh speakers, Labour led with 29%, Reform was in second place with 26%, the Conservatives were on 18%, Plaid Cymru was on 13% and the Greens and Lib Dems were both on 6%.

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Fieldwork

A total of 1,000 interviews were completed and analysed, with fieldwork taking place between November 4 and November 24 2024.The headline voting intention data is based on 500 respondents aged 16 and over who fulfilled all the following criteria:

Those who stated a preference for a party, excluding those who would not vote, don’t know how they would vote or prefer not to say;

Those who said they are 9 or 10 out of 10 in terms of their certainty to vote in a Senedd election (ie excluding those who say they are 8 out of 10 or below).

The next Senedd election is due to take place in May 2026 under a new, more proportional voting system where people will vote for a party instead of for an individual. Wales will be divided into 16 “super-constituencies”, each of which will elect six MSs.

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34 comments

Rhufawn Jones

Wel pa syndod. Gwlad mewn parlys marwol yn crwydro tuag at y diddymdra mawr.

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R W

I assume they didn't specifically ask respondents whether they would vote for the "Abolish" mob, unless they are polling at less than 2% of course, which I would be very surprised at! I suspect in reality they will get somewhere between 5 and 8%, taking votes away from the other Unionist parties. Very different result from the YouGov survey, who I suspect have a better track record of predicting election results in Cymru.

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Jeff

Let the far right in and they will wreck it. But maybe to see that mess the people that vote for them will need to see them in power. Perhaps Donny will show them up and people take a step back. I don't think any party is ready for the shenanigans reforms owner is prepared to stoop to and the truth that will be avoided.

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Padi Phillips

I think we can already see what is likely to happen should Frogage and his mob get into power anywhere. Already those who voted for Trump have been given cause to regret - look at the plight of US Steel workers who faithfully voted for Trump only to discover that he's on a nativist trip and is opposed to Nippon Steel taking over the American steelmaker, something that's needed as US Steel needs the investment that Nippon Steel is offering. Meanwhile in Argentina, the poor, who voted in their millions for Javier Millei are having paus for thought a they see their poverty turn to destitution with little prospect of any improvements. He claimed to be Maggie Thatcher on steroids, and that is just what he's proving to be. Sometimes it's best to believe what's printed on the tin. These bastards prey on the marginalised and poorly educated, but the mainstream is just as culpable in that they have been, and continue to be dismissive of the everyday concerns of millions of ordinary people. All of them, without exception represent wealth, and will seek to continue to divide us and sow discontent, playing one group of people off another in order to remain in control.

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Jeff

Argentina was in my thoughts when I typed that up. Not enough coverage here. The snippets I see are terrible. Speaking of the T dude, the M dude looks to be going for a government shut down through Mr T after bi partisan agreement on a gov funding deal that M doesn't like and ramped up opposition on his platform. That will be the mo in the UK with reform.

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In reply to Jeff

Adrian

You seem a little agitated Jeff: is everything OK?

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Geraint Owen

You talk through your back side America will rise not like UK under Labour no idea

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Geraint Owen

Think your totally wrong there just like poll results .Labour in Wales and UK need removing asap before UK is overrun by illegals and islamic laws . Reform will take more seats than Labour as the person you refer too cares about the UK and it's people

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Ernie The Smallholder

I don't see Wales being overrun as you put it. What we do see is Cymru Wales being overrun with British UK imperialism. We should stay clear of ReformUKIP, Conservative and Labour: Which they want to continue to build a centralised UK state and we know what centralised Eastern Europe looked like before 1990. We need our own country: Republic of Cymru. We have a great opportunity to get our freedom and independence. We must not lose this opportunity to be free of imperialism.

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Mab Meirion

There is the small matter of Asymmetrical Funding... One party is the current state... Another is the world's richest man's crossword puzzle... A third appears to be funded by God... We had better crowd fund Plaid... I thought there were laws but that was before the Fat Shanks 'Effect'...

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Geraint Owen

Plaid ???? Their as corrupt as Labour

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Dewi

If you need a prime example of how utterly unreliable this poll is, and just how insignificant the sampling size must be, look no further than these baffling figures: Among male voters, Labour narrowly led with 28%, followed by Reform on 27%, the Conservatives on 20%, Plaid Cymru on 10%, the Liberal Democrats on 7%, and the Greens on 6%. Labour also narrowly led among women voters with 27%, with Plaid Cymru in a close second place on 26%, Reform on 20%, the Conservatives on 15%, the Greens on 6%, and the Liberal Democrats on 5%. According to this data, women are more than twice as likely (at 26%) to vote for Plaid Cymru compared to men, who polled just 10%. Such a glaring discrepancy points to one unavoidable conclusion: the poll is based on a minuscule or poorly representative sample size. Far from offering meaningful insights, these results highlight the inherent weaknesses in the methodology used and serve as a cautionary reminder to approach such surveys with scepticism.

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R W

You're right Dewi, that very idea is absolutely laughable. Either that or we are suddenly in a situation where more people are now ready to actually vote for Labour, perhaps because of all the incredibly popular policies they are now implementing at Westminster!! If you believe that you'll believe anything!!

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Howie

The only poll that matters is the one on the day, where a myriad of other factors could come into play.

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hdavies15

Spot on there Howie. All the belching in the column above is hot air. If people are worried by some party or other they should get off their backsides and start communicating in their own neighborhood. That way they might get who or what they want by way of local representation. One thing for sure Not many will be guided by what they see on here. "We're doomed we're doomed" is not a good message, but a willingness to regularly send out clear succinct messages about your party's vision and how you intend to deliver might make a difference.

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Ash P

Welsh Labour have been great for Wales so...oh wait. It's our Aliens vs Predator moment: Whoever wins, we lose!

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G D

Has Beaufort joined the independent regulatory body of polling companies now? ie The British Polling Council? If not then this should be treated very cautiously.

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R W

No, it isn't. Makes you wonder why Nation.Cymru are using them for polling purposes.

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Barry Pandy

No but you will.

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Barry Pandy

My main takeaway from this poll is that the bigoted old g!t brigade are still loyal little doggies so far as Reform and the Tories go. The sooner the selfish baby boomers die off the better, they've consistently voted this country into the gutter. Or at least most of them have: apologies in advance to those baby boomers who don't vote Tory/Reform and I wish you a long and happy retirement.

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Garycymru

Harsh but completely fair, and exactly what most of the country feels. I don't think there has ever been such an awful generation that has caused so much damage. Its quite saddening to see a generation of grandchildren that won't even acknowledge their grand parents due to them being horrible people. To top it off, they're the ones costing the most to keep.

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Mab Meirion

Rubbish...

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Barry Pandy

How so?

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In reply to Barry Pandy

hdavies15

Your ageist prejudice stinks. If you had bad parenting or your grandparents deprived you in some way then that's down to those relationships. Don't tar everyone else with the same brush. Get out some more and see how the generations get on in other families.

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In reply to hdavies15

Barry Pandy

The baby boomers are the real ageists - always moaning about younger generations not working hard enough (when in reality they have to work far harder than the boomers ever did just to keep their heads above water) when the reality is that it is the baby boomer generation who have f*cked up the world. Sky high house prices that have mostly benefited the baby boomers whilst simultaneously pricing younger people out of decent housing being just one example. They made damn sure that their final salary pensions and their option for early retirement were protected but pulled the ladder up for younger generations. And don't even get me started on Brexit, f*cking up our future for the sake of their ridiculous Empire fantasies. I for one won't ever forgive them. Selfish lot.

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In reply to Barry Pandy

hdavies15

You reinforce my point perfectly. Myopic in the extreme.

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In reply to hdavies15

Barry Pandy

Everything I said about the boomers is true and you know it.

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In reply to Barry Pandy

hdavies15

May be true of some boomers, just as it's true of some younger folk. Twits come in all ages shapes and sizes. If you can't see that you might be one yourself.

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Alex

Reform doing well enough pretty much everywhere. Will be tight between them and Labour for largest party

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Owain Morgan

If we believe this poll.

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R W

Only the gullible will take this poll seriously.

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Ernie The Smallholder

This poll is a warning. Even the other poll is not enough to obtain a majority for freedom. Don't be complacent. Plaid Cymru must, and I repeat, must maximise its vote. We must ensure that we, in Wales, have a future and a majority of Cymru patriots for independence are elected to the Senedd, whether they are Plaid Cymru, Cymru Green Party and Gwlad.

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Richard Smith

Do you want to live in a Wales that is oppressed by a Labour party that is taking money from wherever it can get its grubby little hands on, so it can fill their Climate Agenda pot . Wales's essential services are in the state they are because Labour are skimming money meant for the likes of the Welsh NHS etc , and putting the money towards their Climate agenda. Labour would rather cause misery and risk Welsh people's health and lives and basically enforce financial difficulties on people and families, so that they appease their Masters in the WEF and WHO. How dangerous are Labour to Wales's economy and the Welsh public's Health and Wealth ? How deep does corruption go within Labour ? How many Financial laws have Labour broken ? How many times have Labour in Wales broken the Ministerial code ? When is Mark Drakeford going to hand over all the information from 20mph reports and surveys that he has withheld for the last 15 months minimum ? When will there be an investigation into Labour about everything they are suspected of doing whilst in power in Wales , Drakeford's 5 year tenure needs specific scrutiny, then the 20 previous years of Labour rule during Welsh Devolution. It's about time , before costs to the public increase even more that Labour get forced ( for a change ) to give answers the public want and have a right to hear . Does anyone honestly belive a poll ? Labour are dirty underhand players that will do anything to win . Aren't the 20mph lies not enough proof of that ? Save Wales , Save your Country , Save your families and their futures , Vote Labour Out ✊️🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿✊️

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Ernie The Smallholder

VOTE FOR A PARTY THAT WILL GIVE OUR NATION ITS INDEPENDENCE. Let's break away from the corrupt UK centralised system. Here is our chance. Yes Cymru ! Vote Plaid Cymru FOR an Independent free nation.

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Replying to Padi Phillips Cancel

I think we can already see what is likely to happen should Frogage and his mob get into power anywhere. Already those who voted for Trump have been given cause to regret - look at the plight of US Steel workers who faithfully voted for Trum...

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