New HS2 scandal, with train delays between south Wales and London until 2032

Martin Shipton

Fresh concerns have been expressed about the negative impact of the HS2 rail route on Wales following confirmation that train services from south Wales to London will be disrupted during its construction phase.

There have been concerns for years about the decision of successive UK governments to designate HS2 - a new high speed route from London to Birmingham - as an England and Wales project, even though the route doesn’t pass through Wales at all. As a result, Wales is losing several billion pounds in rail infrastructure funding that it would be entitled to if HS2 was classed as an England-only project.

Now, it has become clear that the building of HS2 will lengthen journey times between London and south Wales until 2032.

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Disruption

Leading Welsh transport expert Professor Stuart Cole has set out in detail how that will happen: “Travellers on Great Western Railway trains between south Wales and London will have seen the extensive civil engineering works at Old Oak Common (OOC), a former railway and derelict industrial site just west of Paddington Station. Currently it is the stabling (parking) location for Heathrow Express, Elizabeth Line and Great Western Railway (GWR) trains and while we travellers see it largely empty during the day, at night it is filled with those trains. The new HS2 station to be built at OOC will see their removal elsewhere thus increasing train stabling costs and additional running time.

“One might wonder how does that affect travellers from south Wales bound for Paddington. Construction so far has had little effect on journey times. The new HS2 station (as yet unnamed) at OOC) will be built with a realigned east – west four-track route into Paddington’ This will cause most of the disruption during the construction phase; the increased journey times for south Wales passengers will be during blockades on the main line with service diversion.

“The disruption during construction until 2032 will, says HS2, be limited to each Christmas and at some weekends, starting November 19, during which Paddington station will be closed. The number of hourly train ‘paths’ reduces from around 50 to 15 and so a reduced service frequency with train speeds reduced from 125 mph to 60 mph will increase journey times. “Trains are to be diverted to Euston resulting in an additional 15-minute journey time. An unfamiliar station on an unfamiliar route and where in 2023 the Office of Rail and Road reported Euston as having ‘unacceptable levels of overcrowding’.

“That disruption may affect the hourly service from Swansea and half hourly from Cardiff which should continue but as yet [the UK Government’s] Department for Transport has not provided even the 2026 timetable. However, Wales again gets hit by a railway, the HS2, which so far has done nothing positive for Wales.

“The Sunday effect will be felt by the tourism industry as the railway is increasingly becoming a leisure business and trains from Wales and the west of England are often full and standing on summer Sundays.

“Once full operations resume one option seems to have GWR trains stopping at HS2 OOC only four minutes from Paddington. This may increase revenue forecasts, so improving the HS2 business case, but has no logic for long distance passengers, most of whom have Paddington as their destination. There will be a time disbenefit of three to 10 minutes dwell time so reducing the time saving following the nearly £3bn spent on reducing journey times between south Wales and London by 15 minutes.

“The Welsh Government and our south Wales representatives in Westminster who include the Secretary of State, Jo Stevens, now must ensure that Wales doesn’t receive any more negative consequences from HS2.”

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Negative impact

Plaid Cymru’s transport spokesperson at the Senedd, Peredur Owen Griffiths MS, said: "Plaid Cymru has long argued that the high speed rail HS2 project - an England-only project that Wales has to pay for despite not a single metre of track being laid here - would have a negative impact on our country but it seems that that impact will be even worse than we thought.

"Plaid Cymru's calls for the £4bn in cash that Wales is owed have been ignored for years by the Labour Party. Now we will see delays to our rail service because of it. You couldn’t make it up.

"The Department for Transport has not even considered the impact this will have on Wales any further than 2026 - a clear sign that for the UK Government, under Labour or the Conservatives, Wales is an afterthought.

"Labour have shown that they are unwilling to stand up for Wales. Plaid Cymru will. We will always stand up for Wales and continue to fight for the fairness we deserve."

Rail funding

Meanwhile Plaid’'s transport spokesperson in Westminster, Ann Davies MP, has told the Labour Welsh Government not to “settle for less” when it comes to rail funding in Labour’s first UK Government Budget on October 30.

After years of Labour calling for billions for Welsh railways while in opposition, the Caerfyrddin MP said the Budget was Labour’s opportunity to “put their money where their mouth is”.

On Thursday, October 3, Finance Secretary Mark Drakeford called for a fair application of the Barnett formula in relation to rail funding. However, there are hints that the Welsh Government’s previous position of reclassifying HS2 as an England-only project is being diluted.

During the general election, Welsh Labour claimed that the sum of money owed to Wales is only £350m, despite the then Shadow Wales Secretary Jo Stevens MP having called for the Conservative Government to deliver the “missing £4.6bn of rail funding for Wales” in 2022.

In March 2024, the Welsh Government reiterated its call for the then Conservative UK Government to reclassify the HS2 project as “England-only”, which would result in around £4bn of consequentials to Wales over the course of the project.

Last month, the Treasury reconfirmed that it will not revisit the classification of HS2 and will therefore not adjust Wales’ funding under the Barnett formula.

Crumbs

Ann Davies MP said: “This Budget is the first real test of Labour's commitment to Wales. After years of slamming the Conservatives for treating Wales unfairly on rail funding, it’s time for Labour to put their money where their mouth is.

“With HS2’s cost now estimated at £66bn, Wales should be seeing around £4bn in consequentials. If we’re treated fairly – like Scotland and Northern Ireland – it’s what we’re owed. The Welsh Government must stand firm and refuse to accept crumbs when billions are on the table.

“We’re not asking for a handout; we’re demanding fairness. Labour acknowledged the injustice while in opposition; it’s time for them to fix it in Government.

“If Labour fails to act, it’s not just a betrayal of their promises to Wales, it’s a slap in the face to their own colleagues in the Welsh Government, who have worked with Plaid Cymru to make the case for a fair deal for Welsh railways.

“Labour promised ‘change’ to the people of Wales. This Budget is their moment to deliver.”