Labour leads in latest Senedd election poll, suggesting it's wrong to write off the party's chances

Why is this poll so out of step with other polls? Either people haven’t made their minds up are swapping voting intentions or thiz poll is widely off the mark-i hope its the latter

Liebour have been a nightmare for Wales my personal preference is Plaid but anyone than Reform and of course Tories

Once again I take from this Plaid must start talking about the positive impact they would make to Wales, rather than going front and centre with our missing HS2 and Barnett consequentials which is clearly just not inspiring. And once again voting Green is simply helping Reform.

400 respondents from across Wales! I would question 400 over a constituency, yet the whole of Wales. Having a few 1000 across Wales over say a week would be more relevant, not 400 over 3 weeks.

Yeah but how many of their supporters have never voted before and will now not be auto-enrolled?

That reform are even in the running, that is great shame on a nation like Wales. Let them at power and it will be bad.

Quite right, they have been underestimated in every event election probably because so many voters are off the normal list that polling companies used. Around 3 to 5 points underestimated

Gotta say this poll seems like a bit of a outlier? Its completely at variance with every other poll taken in Wales since last Autumn. Either Beaufort Research knows something every other polling company doesn't.... or this polling company will have very red faces - and a lot of explaining to do - when the votes are counted in next year's Senedd election (my money's on the latter).

As a Plaid supporter and voter in South Wales, this doesn’t particularly surprise me. We can dismiss the size of the sample or see it as an outlier, but the simple factor is Plaid are not getting their message across. Those of us who are interested in politics are outrage by HS2 funding or lack of it, the Barnett formula, the crown estate, failure to devolve invest etc etc. But for everyone else which is the majority of votes it means very little. What is Plaids point point of difference. what are they actually going to do in government, not just tinkering around the edges? What is Plaids distinct and workable package for government. It isn't easy because whoever is in power are constrained by the devolution settlement and the will of Westminster which makes meaningful localised government neigh on impossible. But that doesn’t mean what currently exists and will be available to applied lead Welsh government can’t and shouldn’t be far far better managed … in fact if it isn’t we might as well all pack up and go off home because of labourers management over the last 20+ years has been appalling. Time is ticking away Plaid need to set out what they will do as the government in power now not in a manifesto launch a couple of months ahead of the election

" So far as age is concerned, Labour leads among 16-34 year-olds with 39%, followed by Plaid Cymru on 25%, Reform on 15%, Conservatives 10%, Lib Dems 6%, Greens 5% and Some other party 0%." Whatever the validity of the poll overall, that's an interesting result. Plaid are supposedly picking up the .youthful "idealists " desperate for change? They are the future?

In any decent persons opinion.

I wonder if any of these polls include Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party as an option? If not then this may inflate Reform's vote share

Labour were down on 18% on last YouGov poll in May, I fail to see what would have turned it around for them in that short time especially in Wales.

Because most of those 470k weren't in Wales.

In a survey published on BBC today, "The survey showed just 8% of 201 secondary school pupils asked could identify the Wales' first minister, and fewer than half recognised Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer." That's the reality.

Reform is on 25%. Let that sink in. When a party like Reform is on anything above 1% it should be obvious that devolution hasn't gone too well.

Ignoring the size of the sample, these polls just suggest that the allegiance of a very large part of the voting public is very fluid. Support for reform is in part because those people think that the "party" (limited company) offers something different from the neo-liberal clap trap that we have had since Thatcher, not realising that the "party" is funded by supporters and beneficiaries of that system. Remember that Sir James Goldsmith and the Referendum Party started the ball rolling and after his death Farage and UKIP continued to stir the pot and it is why Farage still wants to be seen as a personal "friend" of Trump.. Then the other partys still go along with that neo-liberal orthodoxy and offer nothing different, no hope, do only whatever the "markets" will allow. There needs to be an alternative story or philosophy and that seems to be lacking.

The most important poll is the one on the day of the vote.

Clutching at straws. Don't think this poor poll is going to rescue Labour.

Based on a sample of 400 voters over three weeks, I think this is an extremely poor sample and therefore cannot tell us anything. That said most 1000 voter polls are of limited use. As always the trends are what's important, but even then we need more 10000 voter polls and polling in the two or three closest marginal constituencies in order to understand which party is most likely to come out on top.