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Labour drops to fourth in Barry by-election as Reform UK gains another council seat in Wales

By Mark Mansfield
Brandon Dodd. Photo via Twitter

Reform UK has won a by-election in the Vale of Glamorgan, taking the Illtyd ward in Barry from Labour, which dropped to fourth place.

The new councillor is Reform’s Brandon Dodd, who topped the poll with 729 votes.

The runner-up was Plaid Cymru’s Taif Ball with 657 votes, while the Conservatives’ Vincent Bailey was third with 445 votes.

Labour’s Aled Blake was fourth with 414 votes while Green Party candidate Aoife Blight got 85 votes.

The result is the latest by-election victory for Reform in Wales, which has previously taken two seats in Carmarthenshire, another in Torfaen and one in Bridgend, all from Labour.

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Humiliation

Coming fourth in a seat it previously held is a particular humiliation for Labour and represents a massive turnaround from the last regular local authority election in Illtyd in 2022.

At that time Labour won two of the ward’s three seats and the Conservatives won one.

Labour’s Naomi Marshallsea topped the poll with 1,342 votes with party colleague Howard Hamilton, whose death in July triggered the by-election, in second place with 1,177 votes, Sitting Tory councillor Janice Charles was re-elected with 953 votes.

The top Plaid candidate was Taif Bell, who also stood in the by-election. In 2022 he got 589 votes, while the leading Green Party candidate got 396 votes.

There was no Reform candidate.

Following the by-election, Labour will continue to run a minority administration with 24 of the 54 seats. The Conservatives are the main opposition party with 13 seats, Plaid Cymru has 8 seats, there are 8 Independent councillors and now 1 from Reform UK.

Plaid Cymru, which holds two of the three Illtyd seats on Barry Town Council, is disappointed not to have won the by-election.

Cllr Mark Hooper represents the Baruc ward in Barry on Vale of Glamorgan council and will be Plaid Cymru’s lead candidate at next May’s Senedd election in the new super-constituency of Pen-y-Bont Morgannwg, which covers Bridgend and the Vale of Glamorgan.

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'Worrying'

Reflecting on the result of the by-election, he said: “I believe the Senedd election will end up being a contest between Plaid Cymru and Reform, with Labour and the Conservatives on the margins. People who want to stop Reform from leading Wales should vote for Plaid Cymru.

“At the Vale of Glamorgan level, the Illtyd ward has always been a Labour-Tory marginal, and this is the first time those parties haven’t taken first and second place. It will be very worrying for both parties, whose appeal is definitely waning.

“We had a good candidate who had the right messages and I don’t think I did anything wrong.

“But those who voted for Reform did so for reasons that have nothing to do with Vale of Glamorgan council. They were voting on the usual issues that Farage is given plenty of opportunity to air on the BBC and in papers like the Daily Mail, day after day, week after week.

“They were voting for Nigel Farage, not for the young Reform candidate whose name was on the ballot paper. I’m not one to criticise young people’s involvement in politics, but there's a need for councillors who are able to discuss and make decisions about issues like waste collection and education, which are important.

“I’m sure we can beat Reform in Wales, but it will take a lot of work. Onwards to Caerphilly!”

Caerphilly

A by-election will be held in Caerphilly on October 23 for a new MS to replace Labour’s Hefin David, who died tragically in August.

Labour is in turmoil in Caerphilly following the resignation of council leader Sean Morgan, who denounced the party and left it following the decision of Welsh Labour officials to block his deputy Cllr Jamie Pritchard from putting his name forward for the by-election because he had tweeted support for Jeremy Corbyn during the period when he was leading the party.

Cllr Morgan, who will sit as an Independent councillor, says he will vote for Plaid Cymru’s by-election candidate, Cllr Lindsay Whittle, and has advised others to do the same.

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36 comments

Steve D.

Currently many people just are not listening to how bad a Reform government, in Cardiff Bay, would be for Cymru. However, as the May elections get closer and people start to focus on them - that could well change. There's going to be far more literature and focus on the behaviour of the party meaning it will become harder for the general public to ignore.

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David Richards

We keep saying that Steve but Reform keeps winning coucil seats in Wales - and remember this is a party which didn't exist in Wales the last time these seats were contested. For sure they'll be subject to greater scrutiny in the run up to polling day next year - and with 96 candidates to find the potential for Reform to slip up cannot be discounted (their 'difficulties' with some candidates in last year's general election being well known). But if they dont make any serious gaffe's over their selection of candidates - and stick to the populist politics which is serving them so well - then afraid to say its hard to see anything other than Farage's party being the largest party in Wales next year (gulp). And in that sense I really think the Caerphilly by-election will be crucial....arguably the most important byelection in Wales since the same seat was contested for Westminster back in 1968. The late Dr. Phil Williams' astonishing performance there in that byelection was arguably more significant for Welsh politics than Gwynfor Evans in Carmarthen was two years earlier. And I dont think it would be going to far to say that whoever wins this by-election will be the largest party in Wales after the Senedd elections next year.

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Mitchell Adcow

In the days of people getting one-sided news feeds from social media and news sites like GB News or the Daily Mail, I think the dark side of Reform will be easy for many people to ignore. While Labour fails to deliver real change for working class people, there will always be voices like Reform ready to throw the blame on immigrants, sow division and pretend that their lies are the "voice of the people".

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Rob

Most people didn't vote for Reform. The problem is first past the post.

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Felicity

Come next May, there needs to be one grouping we can all get behind. A coalition of the willing? At present the leftish vote is being split so many ways, and Reform just sails through the middle.

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SundanceKid

Perhaps Labour should follow its own mantra and stand aside or not campaign so vigorously (the same argument they apply to everyone else) to allow another party a chance to stop Reform because it is clear as day that they are not going to be able to beat them.

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SundanceKid

Look at the vote tally. Plaid Cymru could easily beat Reform if more people who vote Labour defect to Plaid. What is it with Wales and its obsession with the Labour party? What have they ever done for the people of Wales? And yet those blind in their devotion to Labour could cost us dearly through a Reform government.

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Rob W

The Tories and Labour are looking increasingly like dead ducks here in Cymru. At last year's general election, Reform got more than double the vote Plaid Cymru received in the Vale of Glamorgan. Judging by that result, the gap has been narrowed quite considerably since then, with just 72 votes separating the two at this council by-election. This is quite encouraging news for the Caerphilly by-election, which is traditionally far more fertile territory for Plaid. If anyone is still thinking of voting Labour next month, then please think again as it would be a wasted vote.

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Rob W

Actually, if this result is replicated throughout this area at next year's Senedd election, it would mean Reform and Plaid winning two seats each, with the Tories and Labour taking one seat apiece. Who would have thought that 18 months ago!?

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Jenny

Good point. If Reform want to win more seats than Plaid at the Senedd elections, then this is the sort of constituency where they'd need to win more seats than Plaid next year.

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Robert Pickton

It's bad news, but I genuinely think REFORM are going to take over south east Wales come the election. Labour have successively let down generations if young people in Wales. It's over for them

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Mjwiggs90

Young people are overwhelming turning to Plaid and the Greens, although Reform are making some gains in the demographic. It's the older generations who overwhelming turning to Reform. If only these people could follow the wishes of the next generations

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Ernie The Smallholder

The reasons that older people follow Reform is because they have been exposed to the UK propaganda machine for longer and they don't cross-check information. There are many differing sources of opinion and they need to be checked out. The prime example is the issues of EU membership and the 2016 referendum, to which I used my experience alongside many sources and came to the obvious conclusion that EU membership was to the benefit of all. Not, at least, gave us freedom of trade, movement and security. However, being outside the EEA and EU single market and custom union is very hard going and has denied us of progress and it is very clear we are a worse position than if Brexit hadn't happened and that is principally Nigel Farage's fault.

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SundanceKid

I share your concerns and I am dumbfounded as to why people would think that Reform (an even more anti-Wales party than Labour) is the answer.

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Brian Coman

How many more results do we need to show what's happening. Labour is walking into a self made disaster zone. They have ignored a massive petition to their peril , have little public consultation , their waste of tax payers money and some of their petty obsessions, while not giving anything to the people who they are supposed to serve. The excuses they will give will be interesting to say the least.

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Brychan

Don't think those 85 will have opted for Reform if Green Party of England and Wales didn't stand in Barry or elsewhwere Wales. If they'd have voted Plaid Cymru as an alternative, then Plaid Cymru would have won the seat.

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Llyn

Yep. The Green Party in Wales, with it's vote too small to win a seat but big enough to assist Reform UK win a seat, is simply serving as a handmaiden for Reform UK.

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Bruce

It's time for preference voting.

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SundanceKid

And that's the problem. Same for the 445 who voted for Labour.

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David Richards

Another ominous result for those of us who dread the prospect of Reform being the largest party in the Senedd next year. But another disastrous result for labour and indicative that they face being wiped out in Wales next year - and their humiliation will surely be richly deserved after foisting the odious Vaughan Gething and the clueless Eluned Morgan on us in recent years. You could argue that the plaid vote has held up reasonably since 2022 but - as with some other by elections that have taken place this year (most notably llangennech) - this is a seat plaid really should be winning if its to have a realitistic hope of having the most seats in the Senedd next year. Certainly there's no question now that plaid has to win the forthcoming Caerphilly by-election for its aspirations to lead Wales next year to be realised.

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Rob W

This seat has always been a Labour/Conservative marginal. Plaid had never finished better than third in a council election there, so increasing their vote share by more than 10% (from 17.1% to 28.2%) and coming within a hair's breadth of winning is pretty good. Indeed, if they can repeat that increase in vote share by the same margin nationally at next year's Senedd election, then they'll enjoy a very good election indeed. Unfortunately, Reform might well enjoy a very good election as well. The big losers will be Labour and the Tories.

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David Richards

Rob the labour vote is collapsing in Wales and the tories face extinction in Wales - this is a seat plaid should be winning.....its certainly disappointing to get beaten in a seat like this by a party which didnt exist last time this seat was contested. We have to stop making excuses in plaid when we fall short in these by-elections - excuses wont help us next May (nor will the convoluted abstract mathematical 'calculations' youve posted in other comments) .

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In reply to David Richards

Rob W

What on earth are you talking about!! Check out this link: https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/plaid-cymru. The Vale of Glamorgan is target seat No 25 out of the 28 seats they didn't win in Wales last year. If you think Plaid should be coasting to victory in one of the four trickiest seats for them in the whole of Wales, then you really are expecting miracles from them! Assuming that there is nothing unusual about this ward, I'd say the fact that they're in line to win more seats than the Tories and Labour in this constituency next year (and the same number as Reform) is pretty miraculous.

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Jeff

Reform, the party of hate and division, the party of anti vaxers and medical kooks, the party of climate destroyers and owned by the usual suspect oil barons, the party that is owned by 5 house farage with interesting tax arrangements and numerous revenue stream's and farage great mates with Trump who strives on hate, and Trump who was great mates with Epstein. Yeah, that reform.

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CapM

'and Trump who was great mates with Epstein.' And it seems an even greater mate of Epstein was Labour grandee and Starmer's chosen ambassador to the USA. Peter Mandelson.

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Jeff

Yes, read my other comments. Never ever said he wasn't. But this is reform. Supporting a president dangling on the Epstein hook, a gop protecting a president they fear is listed in the files BIG time. A president with many people coming forward with claims of sexual abuse. That reform. Speaking of which. A reform whose owner stood up ion the HoC to say nice things about the bloke killed recently. That reform. A reform owner that called for the Esptien files to be released and recently could not comment cos he didn't know anything now Donny is running scared. That reform. The same reform whose leader asked for interference from a hostile foreign power and for them to impose finacial sanctions that will harm everyone in the UK because he claimed UK was like North Korea. That reform. The same reform leader that inflicted brexit on the UK with a massive financial hit and the same idiot of a leader that says C02 is good for us and vaccines are bad.

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In reply to Jeff

CapM

The same Reform... The same Reform... The same Reform... The same Reform that Starmer and co have just gifted an obvious and inevitable own goal to.

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Adam

No. This is a consequence of thick anti Welsh people being allowed to vote. Fascism has no place in Wales, and those promoting it are no better than RSO's. Stringent action is needed by the decent people to keep this completely out of our communities.

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Mitchell Adcow

Calling your political opponents thick and telling them they have no right to vote is exactly the sort of attitude that drives people to parties like Reform. I agree we need to drive out Reform and its agenda of hate, but demonising its supporters is not the way to beat them. We tried that with Brexit and look where it got us!

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Adam

Sorry. I disagree on this one. Given that the fallout from Mr farages last scam is highly obvious around us all, the word "thick" is a perfect word. Repeating the same mistake and expecting a different outcome is very much "thick". Also, when their sole outcome is to create hatred and division in Wales, they do not deserve any kind of respect. Showing these types your support is akin to supporting MAP's, it's the same kind of evil.

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CapM

Maybe work on your advocacy skills or risk carrying on and being a little helper for Reform.

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James Edwards

Obviously a disappointing result but from Plaids point of view up 10 percentage points in Barry and coming a strong second can’t be seen as a bad result.

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Johnny

Maybe the Anti Refugee Protests at Rhoose could have had some influence on this result similar to Reform doing well in Llanelli as a result of The Stradey Park Hotel. However thankfully there hasn't been any sickening Far Right Violence at Rhoose or at any protests in Barry. It's also been good to see Anti Fascists heavily outnumbering these far right goons.

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Philip Owen

The Vale, Monmouthshire, South Pembrokeshire and maybe Deeside have always been the most English parts of Wales. They have nothing to say about The Valleys or rural Wales.

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Undecided

The Labour vote is collapsing; but where is it going? I simply can’t tell from recent results but it could determine the outcome next May.

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smae

Starmer has much to answer for. The Labour party is up a creek without a paddle while he's in charge of Labour.

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Replying to CapM Cancel

'and Trump who was great mates with Epstein.' And it seems an even greater mate of Epstein was Labour grandee and Starmer's chosen ambassador to the USA. Peter Mandelson.

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