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Greens defeat Labour in Cardiff council by-election
Martin Shipton
The Green Party has won its first council seat in Cardiff - as well as its first ever by-election in Wales - taking a seat from Labour in the ethnically diverse Grangetown ward.
Green candidate and new councillor Matt Youde topped the poll with 818 votes (24.4%); 44 votes ahead of Labour’s Khuram Chowdhry with 774 votes (23.1%).
Plaid Cymru’s Neil Roberts came third with 639 votes (19.1%); followed by Joseph Martin of Reform UK with 495 votes (13.0%), Vincent Yewlett of Propel with 327 votes (9.8%), Independent candidate Ahmed Samater with 158 votes (4.7%); the Conservatives’ James Hamblin with 139 votes (4.1%) and the Liberal Democrats’ Irfan Latif with 63 votes (1.8%).
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Underwhelming turnout
The by-election, which was caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Sara Robinson, had an underwhelming turnout of 26.7%.
The result represented a big turnaround from the last Wales-wide set of council elections in 2022, when the leading Labour candidate in the four-seat ward topped the poll with 2885 votes. Between them the Labour candidates in Grangetown secured 56% of the votes.
In April 2024 there was an earlier by-election in the ward following the death of Labour councillor Abdul Sattar. His widow Waheeda Sattar got 1470 votes - 48% of the total cast - even though her participation in the campaign was restricted because she complied with a Muslim mourning code.
In 2022 and in the 2024 by-election, the Green Party and Plaid Cymru fielded joint candidates in Grangetown on a ticket called Common Ground.
During the campaign, Grangetown was visited by prominent Green Party politicians, including Adrian Ramsay MP, co-leader of the Green Party of England and Wales and Ellie Chowns, the Green Party MP for North Herefordshire.
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'Positive change'
After the result was declared, Philip Davies, the Wales Green Party’s deputy leader posted a message to social media that said: “A huge congratulations to Matt Youde who will make a fantastic councillor. A huge thank you to everyone who came to help in the campaign. @WalesGreenParty beating Labour shows people want positive change not more of the same; roll on the Senedd election next year.”
Cardiff council Labour leader posted a message to X that said: “Not our day in Grangetown today. My congratulations to Matt Youde and the Greens for their win, and my thanks to our brilliant candidate Khurram Chowdhry, and all who supported us. We’ve lost by-elections before and have bounced back. We’ll reflect, learn, and come back stronger.”
Vale of Glamorgan Labour MP Kanishka Narayan appeared to have misread the electoral runes, posting a message to social media on the evening of polling day after canvassing in the ward that said: “Polls still open, doors still being knocked, Labour support still strong as ever. Don’t forget to vote Labour in Grangetown tonight!”
Third placed Plaid candidate Neil Roberts wrote: “Diolch Grangetown, We ran a positive, community-focused campaign that I’m immensely proud of. We increased our voterbase in Grangetown and have built a strong Plaid Cymru presence in the south of our capital city. Congratulations to Matt Youde from the Greens on his election. I still believe Plaid Cymru are the best party to put Wales first, but for now thank you Grangetown for your support.”
Welsh election analyst Lloyd Warburton wrote: “The Greens have pulled off a shock result, as Matt Youde is elected as their first councillor in Cardiff. He is their ninth current councillor in Wales. This is (as far as I can tell) their first ever by-election win in Wales.”
'Serious blow'
Despite Cllr Thomas’ brave words, the result is a serious blow to Labour nine months before a Senedd election that will be challenging for the party, whose popularity has decreased significantly since last year’s general election.
Labour will, however, take some comfort from the unimpressive performance of Reform UK, which could only achieve fourth position and 13% of the vote.
The 2021 Census confirmed that Grangetown is a highly diverse area with a significant representation of various ethnic groups. The breakdown of the ward’s ethnic makeup is White: 54.16%; Asian, Asian British or Asian Welsh: 23.63%; Black, Black British, Black Welsh, Caribbean or African: 10.83%. Other ethnic groups make up the remaining 11.38%.
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