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Farage 'says Reform should only have a Senedd coalition if with the Tories if the Tories are the junior partner'

By Mark Mansfield
Leader of Reform UK Nigel Farage speaking at the Reform UK Welsh Conference at the Celtic Manor hotel in Newport. . Photo Ben Birchall/PA Wire

Martin Shipton

Nigel Farage has informed senior members of Reform UK in Wales that they should only contemplate entering a Welsh Government coalition with the Conservatives if the Tories are the junior partner, we have been told.

Recent polls have shown Reform in contention for becoming the leading party after the next Senedd election in May 2026.

The party’s fortunes have been greatly enhanced by the introduction of a new, wholly proportional electoral system in tandem with the increase in the number of MSs from 60 to 96.

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Convinced

Some of Reform’s officials are convinced that the party will win more seats than any other party - a situation made more possible by the sharp drop in support for Labour since the general election in July 2024.

The fact that Reform is seriously contemplating such success from a starting point where they have no representation at all at the Senedd is indicative of the current level of political volatility in Wales and Britain as a whole.

Reform won five seats in England last July, but none in Wales and Scotland, although in Llanelli the party came within 1500 votes of defeating long serving Labour MP Dame Nia Griffith.

Under the Senedd’s new Closed List electoral system, Wales will be split into 16 “super constituencies” with six MSs elected from each of them.

Reform has yet to select its candidates, but that process is due to start within a few months. It is understood that the party intends to have a rigorous selection process, to avoid as much as possible choosing candidates who will cause embarrassment in the run-up to the election. The idea of standing as a Reform candidate will likely be seen as an attractive proposition by people on the far right, many of whom have criminal convictions or have expressed unacceptable views on social media.

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Caerphilly

Nation.Cymru has been told that Mark Reckless, the former UKIP MP and MS, is hopeful of standing in Caerphilly at next year’s Senedd election. He recently refused to confirm his intentions when we asked him how he would reconcile standing for Reform, which does not advocate ending devolution, with his previous candidacy for the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party.

Mr Reckless has had a politically promiscuous career, having begun as a Tory MP in Kent and then defected to UKIP. After losing his seat in the 2015 general election, he came to Wales, winning a regional seat in South East Wales at the National Assembly election the following year. Although seven UKIP Assembly Members were elected,the group soon fell apart in acrimony. Mr Reckless was allowed to attend Welsh Conservative group meetings, although he was barred from rejoining the party. He later led a small Brexit Party group at the Senedd, before joining the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party. He was heavily defeated at the 2021 Senedd election.

We have been told by a reliable source that Mr Reckless has been telling people that “Nigel” will only allow Reform to go into coalition with the Conservatives if the Tories are the junior partner.

Clearly any question of such a coalition would depend on the mathematics of the election result. While a Reform / Conservative deal is feasible, some would argue that Labour and Plaid Cymru between them would have a better chance of forming a majority. All predictions should be treated with caution, especially so far in advance of the election.

Anglocentric

While many people in Wales support Mr Farage, there are many who dislike him. Those who support an independent Wales as well as others on the left, and even some Conservatives, are unlikely to view favourably Mr Farage’s Anglocentric views on how the Welsh Government should be constituted.

Blaenau Gwent Labour MS Alun Davies said: “Farage isn’t interested in Wales. He represents Clacton in Essex when he isn't in the US. He just sees it as a place to further his own interests elsewhere.

“Reform is not a party in the normal sense. It’s a private company in which he has the majority of the shares.

“He has a history of falling out with people, and that applies to others in the parties he has been involved with. When UKIP won seven seats in 2016, the group didn’t last long and they fell out spectacularly between themselves. All they were interested in was taking the money. Their contribution to Welsh democracy was zero, and that’s what would happen again if Reform gets Members elected to the Senedd next year.”

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32 comments

Y Cymro

Delusional Nigel Farage is a part-time MP who cannot even serve his Clacton constituents properly in England. So any idea that there will be a coalition in the Senedd between Reform UK & Welsh Conservatives to form a government, that Reform MUST be the senior partner is absolutely laughable. And seeing there's no "Welsh" Reform leader, and he, Farage, treats Wales like a colonist would their property, I look forward to him turning up personally to debates to explain his Welsh policies for Wales leading up to the Senedd elections , not regurgitate some rehashed English policies that's copy & pasted to Wales. And I want to see Farage not some underling like lazy workshy Nathan Gill represent him on his behalf. No way. I want to see & hear Farage and his opinions on further devolution, Welsh NHS, Welsh Language, not immigration, because that doesn't affect Wales as much as England as he recently admitted. So bring it on Nigel, I say. Can't wait. Plaid Cymru's Rhun ap Iorwerth will use him as a toothpick.

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Adrian

Delusional Nigel Farage will be making huge gains in Wales this year so I’d brace yourself for a chunk of good old-fashioned Trumpian common sense.

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Tucker

Oh dear, Adrian, is that the Trump common senses of blaming the Democrats or DEI for a horrific air accident. Without any evidence to support his ridiculous claims? Or Trump common sense to drink bleach to tackle covid? Or the Trump common senses to advocate ethnic cleansing of Gaza?

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Fanny Hill

Never mind the Clacton Cowboy being deluded a bit of self examination wouldn't go amiss.

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Llyn

Farage is not delusional on this. Plaid and it's supporters appear more delusional at times - remember Adam Price for FM anyone? Plaid have a great chance on 2026 but they need to come up with a serious offer for the Welsh people, instead of constant easy and unbelievable demands for the Welsh Government to spend more money on everything.

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hdavies15

Well put Llyn. Plaid's delusion is that if you bleat loud enough you'll get a result you seek. Not so. They need to communicate better about what they want to do and broadly how they will do it. Farage may not give a toss for Wales but there are Reform members and supporters who do care and that is where the boo boys get it seriously wrong. Simply, parties need to focus more on displaying their offer and explain how it will work and do less of the sh*t slinging at Reform.

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Dewi

The reality is this: Trump will accomplish more between now and 2026 than Welsh Labour has managed in 25 years of debating pronouns, climate change, and banning electric dog collars while ignoring real crises. Wales is facing a massive homelessness crisis and an even bigger cost-of-living crisis. Meanwhile, Eluned Morgan—born into privilege but pretending otherwise—enjoys a hefty EU pension and pockets £450 a day for signing in at the House of Lords. She can’t chew gum and walk straight, yet somehow, she’s in charge. Farage, next year, will bask in the reflected glory of an American president who insists on bringing manufacturing back home—using tariffs, straight out of Old Labour’s playbook. That message will resonate in the Valleys, where people are struggling by the millions. Meanwhile, Welsh Labour—aside from free bus passes—has achieved next to nothing, still fixated on virtue-signalling from its middle-class bubble while people freeze now because they can’t afford to heat their homes. Farage will win in 2026, and—following Trump’s lead—will no doubt sign hundreds of executive orders. So, what’s Plaid’s talented leader to do? Cut all ties with Welsh Labour and take lessons from Neil McEvoy on how to be a street fighter—because the times, as the song goes, are a-changing.

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John Ellis

I'm not much of a fan of Eluned Morgan, but I don't think that you can seriously argue that she was 'born into privilege'. Her dad was an Anglican parish priest, and just over forty years ago when, presumably, she would still have been living at home, he would have been paid a tad more than £4,000 a year, with a free house thrown in. As he was a county councillor as well, he'd have had an expense allowance thrown in, but even so that's hardly a 'silver spoon in the mouth' upbringing. Even if it was a cut above the financial security of a fair number of the residents of Ely!

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J Jones

Maybe you need to spend some time in the US to appreciate their education, healthcare, social issues, etc, as Trwmp takes it to the next level. Their education is well known for high school massacres as kids decide there's nothing better to do than massacre classmates and teachers. They have no NHS, so people have to take out private insurance that then refuses to pay out while they die waiting for life saving surgery, hence that Healthcare CEO getting himself executed on the street recently. You may also want to wander through city centres in the US where you will be the only person not doubled up on cocktails of heroin derivatives. Yes we have a problem in Cymru with the other political extreme, but to worship the likes of Farage and Trwmp is akin to worshiping Goebbels and Hitler. If you want your times-a-changing you may want to learn the lessons of history repeating itself.

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Adrian

…and of course, education, healthcare, and social factors are riding on the crest of a wave in Wales aren’t they?

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In reply to Adrian

Tucker

If you don't like how Cymru is run leave. Goodbye. Uiu wont be missed. Isn't that what you leave suppoters told everyone in the UK, who didn't agree with Brexit?

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In reply to Tucker

hdavies15

.. and after you wave Adrian and his like goodbye you expect the rest of us to plod on in this gutter of mediocrity ? You may enjoy an existence that is continually trashed by people who are still doing rather well - politicians and some other elite cliques - but most of us aspire to get back out of the gutter and enjoy a life where some balance is restored to costs of living and standard of public services.

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In reply to Tucker

Mark

I thought the idea was that if you didn't like the government, you voted for a different one, not leave the country. Isn't that the principle of democracy? Isn't that all Adrian is proposing?

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In reply to Mark

Fanny Hill

Adrian doesn’t want democracy, he wants populism.

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Ernie The Smallholder

You can always tell what a person is by the company they keep. Farage trying to court Elon Musk, the nazi salute, and the policies to go with it. and Trump, And don't discount the other meetings with other bad figures from the extreme right elsewhere: AfD, LePenn, Putin? Close connections with nazi National Front in the 1970s ? This is just history repeating itself as in the 1930s with Oswald Mosley's blackshirts, exploiting economic problems from the 1929 Wall Street crash. Now we experience, as a result of the after-effects of a similar 2008 crash, Trump and his redcaps and UKIP and Brexit.... Empty slogans MAGA etc.... Exploiting a vacuum in policies from the Lab/Con establishment that will never provide anything better for the people in Wales. Why would Welsh person want to support a party that wants to Abolish Wales and its Senedd ? Too much Brit-crap media in this country? The People of Wales must think this through for our future. Real security from wealth, power and growth will only come from responsibility with public ownership of wealth creation and that means investing in our own industries through our own stock exchanges here in Wales. Wealth needs to be distributed more fairly throughout the population to enable everyone (who wants to) invest in wealth creating companies and have the security from dividends as additional income sources. This is becoming more urgent with the move towards AI with the replacement of jobs in manufacturing industry by automation for creating greater productivity. Only Plaid Cymru with the interests of Wales at its heart can serve us with the future we have worked towards.

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Mark

As somebody who has used the healthcare systems in the US and Wales, I would take the US system every time. In Wales (and the rest of the UK), we pay in to a healthcare system that doesn't work - the NHS is NOT free, every taxpayer is paying handsomely for it. At least in the US you get something back for your money, very quickly, at a time and in a place that suits you. If you need to see a GP in the US you can see one today, this evening, this weekend, as soon as you are ill. Meanwhile if you need to see a GP in Wales, you have to ring up morning after morning in the hope you might get an appointment or wait until you have deteriorated sufficiently to earn the right to sit in A&E all night. The rest of the NHS similarly operates for its own convenience, not to serve the needs of the patient. 'NHS' stands for National Health Shambles - there is no way it can reasonably be described it as a Service. Don't get me wrong, the American system has its drawbacks too and the insurance-based systems found in most European countries are better in my opinion, but the sooner we have politicians in Cardiff and Westminster that are willing to face up to the fact that the NHS model doesn't work, the sooner we might actually make some progress. Very few other comparable countries take the monolithic approach to healthcare that the UK does. It is time we stopped throwing good money after bad and fix the problem.

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Adrian

Wow Dewi. It’s good to know I’m not alone in pointing out the bleedin’ obvious to our ideological left-wing readership. I applaud you sir, and of course, you’re absolutely right..

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blc

> Farage, next year, will bask in the reflected glory of an American president who insists on bringing manufacturing back home—using tariffs, straight out of Old Labour’s playbook. That message will resonate in the Valleys, where people are struggling by the millions. If the apple does not fall far from the tree, then it seems that you hit every branch on the way down. Like Trump, you demonstrate a fundamental misunderstanding of tariffs. The people who pay for those tariffs are the millions of struggling people in the Valleys. Not the countries we import from, not the companies we buy the imports from. Tariffs can help even the playing field and ensure fair competition when your market is being undercut by cheaper imports, but that price is paid by the people buying the imports. I won’t presume to comment on your case, but in Trump’s misunderstanding of tariffs stems from ignorance and narcissism. He has repeatedly demonstrated for decades that he is a conman and fraudster, interested only in himself. Trump is, frankly, a moron. But the people backing and surrounding him are not. He is a pawn for extreme religious extremists who will manipulate him into enacting their theocratic ideology. If that’s your model of ideal government then please, by all means, feel free to emigrate to the emerging Republic of Gilead. The rest of us are reviled by it.

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blc

Oh I do wish I could edit a comment when it’s been approved… “but in Trump’s misunderstanding of tariffs” should be “but Trump’s misunderstanding of tariffs”. And “He is a pawn for extreme religious extremists” should be “He is a pawn for religious extremists”.

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In reply to blc

Fanny Hill

No, you were correct the first time.

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Peter

How will Farage "bask in the reflected glory of an American president who insists on bringing manufacturing back home using tariffs" when Brexit was all about abolishing tariffs? This is why protectionist Trump has dropped globalist Farage.

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Fanny Hill

What’s the Clacton Cowboy picking up from the EU by way of a pension? Not to mention all the nice little earners on the side in addition to the money he gets for turning up for PMQ. Man of the people, my a**e. As for basking in the reflected glory of Trump, that’s a s**tshow I’m looking forward to.

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Rhufawn Jones

Dyma geir o godi tai i wladychwyr.

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John Ellis

Unfortunately I reckon the chances of Reform achieving significant success in next year's Senedd elections are quite high. But I doubt that they can achieve sufficient support to form a government at Cardiff Bay on their own, and while they might be strong enough to do so in an alliance with the Conservatives, I just think that would be too humiliating an outcome for the Tories to stomach. All the more so if Farage means what he says about his condition for any such alliance being that the Conservatives would need to accept the role of 'junior partner'.

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J Jones

Not that I'm a betting man, but a Paid Labour coalition will be bigger than any Tory / Reform combination as they'll be too busy defeating each other, even with PR. Sadly it'll be like Corbyn v Boris. so not good for anti extremism or the general good of the country long term.

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John Ellis

I hope you turn out to be right. But I think that there may well be more currently Labour-held Welsh constituencies susceptible to the allure of Farage than just Llanelli.

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Jeff

You mean the farage that counts a convicted felon and abuser as a friend and uses tate for news sources and happy to accept money from a bloke that likes to nazi salute on stage after saying billionairs should keep out of uk politics? Wonder what the attraction is. https://bylinetimes.com/2025/01/30/nigel-farage-pictured-with-far-right-activists-who-posted-pride-swastikas-and-racist-rants/

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Garycymru

I'm afraid I'll just never get my head around someone claiming to love their country and community, then voting for reform, who want to destroy said country and community. "But Welsh Labour...blah.....blah.... blah" yes, they've been appaling, but they're anglocentric, they're meant to put Wales interests last, that's the point. Reform are also anglocentric, just with worse intentions, far lower morals, far fewer qualifications and even less of a plan.

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Mark

You would have a point if 25 years of devolution had delivered any noticeable improvement in Wales. Instead, healthcare, education, industrial jobs and the wider economy have gone backwards relative to England. Even the number of Welsh-speakers has gone down. Other than bringing in the smoking ban a few months before England, I cannot think of a single thing devolution has done for me - please give me examples if you can think of any. The Senedd is a great place to fly the Welsh flag and give us a greater sense of our national identity, but it has presided over the decline of Wales. I don't think it is a contradiction to love Wales and question whether we deserve a different approach.

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Peter

What numbers are Reform seriously predicting in their wildest dreams? They need over half the vote to be in government.

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Mark

No they don't! No party has ever had more than half the vote, and I doubt any party ever will. The Labour party has formed the government with less than 40% of the vote at every election since devolution and have never had more than half the seats. The system may be closer to proportional representation in 2026, but that doesn't change the fact that the government will probably be formed by a party with less than half the vote and less than half the seats - either as a minority administration or a coalition.

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Honest Welsh

In Wales it desperately needs a complete overhaul of Administration. Wales is over Administrated There are too many councils all duplicating the same services they are all in close proximity with executives. managers advisors all on inflated salaries and pensions. This a huge waste of public money the saving on capital equipment office although most are working from home Leaving large office's empty All councils are given money without any constraints and waste public money on their own fanciful projects not prioritising public services. Each and every council is in debt paying collosal amounts of public money in interest charges making financial institutions very wealthy. The So called Welsh Government take no control in how all the money they give to councils. There answer is too increase council tax every year imposing a further burden on every person in Wales. The Senedd is an unnecessary tire of Administration that got no priority and are the biggest waste of public money . Every year it has been formed all public services have declined.

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Not that I'm a betting man, but a Paid Labour coalition will be bigger than any Tory / Reform combination as they'll be too busy defeating each other, even with PR. Sadly it'll be like Corbyn v Boris. so not good for anti extremism or th...

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