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Ex-Tory MP tells Plaid how to win as his own party faces wipeout
A former Conservative MP has urged Plaid Cymru to abandon its quest for independence in order to win power in Wales, as he admitted his own party “cannot even come close” to victory at the upcoming Senedd election.
Writing on social media, former Delyn MP Rob Roberts said Plaid Cymru could secure a Senedd majority — or come close enough to govern — if it dropped any talk of independence and further devolution for at least two terms.
His intervention comes as polling points to a collapse in support for the Welsh Conservatives, with recent YouGov modelling suggesting the party could be reduced to as few as three seats. Other polling averages place Conservative support at around 11–13%, far behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.
Roberts said Plaid’s route to power depended on broadening its appeal beyond its traditional heartlands.
“They should drop: a) any talk of independence, and b) any talk of further devolution for the next two Senedd sessions.”
He argued that constitutional change was a “poison chalice” for many voters, claiming that large parts of Wales would be more willing to back Plaid if it focused solely on improving public services.
“To everyone outside of Plaid, the idea of independence is anathema. It’s a poison chalice and it costs votes.”
Roberts suggested the party should instead campaign on a message of fixing Wales after “three decades of mismanagement”, postponing any constitutional ambitions.
“We won’t mention constitutional change for the next decade… it will take us that long to fix the problems in Wales.”
Despite outlining a potential path to power, he stressed he was not endorsing a Plaid-led government, saying his own party was no longer competitive in Wales and adding he would be “disgusted” if Reform UK were to win.
Recent polling suggests a fragmented race, with Plaid Cymru and Reform UK competing to emerge as the largest party.
Roberts served as the Conservative MP for Delyn between 2019 and 2024, later sitting as an independent following his suspension from the party. He has remained an active commentator on Welsh politics since leaving Westminster.
The comments highlight both the scale of the challenge facing the Conservatives and the strategic debate within Welsh politics about how parties can build broad electoral coalitions ahead of polling day.
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