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By-election to be held in Caerphilly following sudden death of MS Hefin David

By Mark Mansfield
Welsh Labour in the Senedd Chamber. Photo Senedd Cymru

Martin Shipton

An obscure sub-section of a law passed in 2024 means that a Senedd by-election will have to be held following the tragic death of Caerphilly Labour MS Hefin David’s death this week.

Dr David was found dead at his home in Nelson, Caerphilly county borough, on the evening of August 12.

His passing means that Labour has lost its effective majority at Cardiff Bay, with the party now holding 29 of the Senedd’s 60 seats.

While many assumed that a by-election would be necessary, legal changes brought about last year when a new piece of legislation was passed that increased the number of MSs from 60 to 96 and changed the voting system to the “closed list” version of proportional representation raised doubts in some people’s minds.

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Unnoticed section

A largely unnoticed section of the Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act 2024 removed the need for by-elections when a seat falls vacant - a provision that had previously been confirmed in the Government of Wales Act 2006, which stated that a by-election should be held except when the vacancy arose within three months of an ordinary election.

Section 9 of the 2024 Act states: “Omit section 10 (constituency vacancies) [of the 2006 Act]. It was this section that removed the need for by-elections, and made some people think that a by-election in Caerphilly would not take place - especially as the change in law came into effect two months after the Act received Royal Assent on June 24 2024.

When asked the Senedd Commission to clarify the situation, a spokesperson said: “You’re right that the Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act 2024 changed the rules in the Government of Wales Act on how vacant seats are handled to reflect the different electoral system that will be in place from 2026. However, there is another section of the Act (Section 24) which means these changes won’t come into effect until after the election so there will be a by-election in Caerphilly in due course.”

Section 25 of the Act is headed “Transitional provision relating to Parts 1 and 2 [the section relating to vacancies is in Part 2]: and states: “Despite the coming into force, under section 25 (2)(a) and (b), of the amendments made by sections 1 and 2 and Part 2, they do not have effect in relation to (a) a general election the poll for which is held on or before 6 April 2026; (b) a Senedd returned at a general election the poll for which is held on or before 6 April 2026 (which includes the Senedd that passed the Bill for this Act) ;(c) the return of a Member to a Senedd mentioned in paragraph (b) (at a general election or otherwise).”

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'Or otherwise'

It appears that the two words “or otherwise” have the effect of overriding the earlier section of the Act which removes the need for by-elections.

When the by-election takes place, it will be the last at the Senedd for the foreseeable future. From May 2026, all MSs will be elected from closed party lists. When a vacancy arises following an MS’s death or resignation, the replacement will be another candidate from the relevant party’s closed list.

Based on recent polling, Reform could be the favourite to win the Caerphilly by-election, a result that would leave Labour on 29 seats with opposition parties holding 31.

A Reform victory would be a boost for the party in the run-up to next May’s election and a disappointment not only for Labour, but also for Plaid Cymru, which has led Caerphilly council for two terms since 1999.

It would also put Labour's Welsh Government into the weaker position of having to negotiate support from other MSs as it drafts a budget for 2026-27.

'Right to representation'

A Labour source said: “The legislation is worded confusingly, but the people of Caerphilly have a right to representation, and it would not be right to deprive them of the opportunity to elect a new MS.”

Dr David had recently won the top slot on Labour’s closed list for the new super-constituency of Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni. He defeated the current Blaenau Gwent MS Alun Davies in a members’ ballot, and Mr Davies was given second place on the list.

With Dr David’s passing, Mr Davies has now taken the top slot. The party’s other candidates for the list will be selected by local members.

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23 comments

David Richards

Hate to say it but if Reform could have picked one seat in Wales they could have a go at to get into the Senedd it would probably be this constituency. Winning a seat in the south wales valleys would be much more significant for farages party than gaining senedd members thru defections. And unfortunately its the kind of constituency where theres no chance of plaid and labour reaching a agreement to stand their candidate down so as not to split the anti-reform vote. The - occasional - MP for Clacton is probably rubbing his hands tonite.

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John Ellis

I don't entirely disagree, but I think that from the Reform UK point of view Llanelli would appeal more. Stradey Park Hotel effect.

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Rob W

Of course, what this article fails to mention is that Plaid finished a strong second in this seat at the general election, ahead of Reform UK. With the new Corbyn party likely putting up a candidate for the by-election to Labour's detriment, this could turn into a two horse race between Reform and Plaid.

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John Ellis

It'd be a pity if Alun Davies had failed to be re-elected. I'd say that, at least in terms of his contributions to debates, he's arguably one of the most effective back-benchers in the Senedd.

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3758483947

I don’t think many would criticise his contributions. It’s his behaviour that makes him unpopular in the Bay

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John Ellis

Rather too much the 'valleys boy' type, maybe?!

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Jonathan

Arguably this seat will be between Reform and Plaid to win with Labour out of the running given how unpopular they are currently.

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3758483947

By “raised doubts in some people’s minds” the writer means people who don’t understand how legislation works. This is all very silly and could be shortened to ‘clause effective in 2026 does not apply in 2025’.

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Brian Coman

The Labour Party in the Senedd has distanced itself from the national Party in Westminster for national reasons as Elunid Morgan alluded to in her Sunday Observer article last week.They have also distanced themselves from the 470,000 people who endorsed the anti 20 mph petition , by passing the buck with minimal effect.They said people are used to the outcome. I think people have long memories for being generally ignored. I feel that the electorate now have the chance to reply to them with a cross in other candidates boxes in the near future. They only have themselves to blame.

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John Ellis

Well, she speaks for me when it comes to the 20 mph. I was dubious when it was first mooted, but round where I live it hasn't actually made that much difference in practice. Other than the statistics indicating a significant reduction in injuries arising from road accidents, which makes it worthwhile as far as I'm concerned.

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Brian Coman

With regard to reductions in safety and health ,how many have died from Wales having enormous waiting lists , and the average life span of homeless people is 47 years of which Wales has a large amount of waiting for accomodation.

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In reply to Brian Coman

John Ellis

I take as I find. After having lived in the Manchester area for over thirty years, my partner and I came back to Wales in 2016. Which for me pretty much coincided - after a remarkably healthy adult life! - with the start of some chronic health problems which tend to come with older age. And for my partner a pretty terrifying cancer diagnosis early in 2022, in the midst f the pandemic. Our experience of health services in our part of Wales, both in primary and secondary care, has been way better than that which we experienced back in south Manchester. And we live in the Betsi Cadwaladr UHB area too. When we were first thinking about moving here, I did have some second thoughts on the healthcare front, given our age and stage, because I'd read about the 'travails of Betsi'. I needn't have, so I'm glad that we came anyway.

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In reply to John Ellis

hdavies15

Great comment there John. Glad you got a service that was up to the required standard. I too have enjoyed something similar here in Penybont ar Ogwr. However there are too many living hereabouts who have serious difficulty with getting into the system right from GP appointment through to the various stages at local general hospital. Some of them may well die prematurely due to the various obstacles in the system. Looks increasingly like rationing to me so I'm working hard at not needing to initiate any new contact.

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In reply to hdavies15

John Ellis

I take your point. My partner's cancer treatment and accompanying care and follow-up at Ysbyty Glan Clwyd in Bodelwyddan was indeed exemplary, and my own odds and ends of age-related health issues have been swiftly addressed there as well. But dementia care there still remains an issue, even after all these years, and there have been on-going delays in other treatments such as hip replacements plus - inevitably - criticism about inordinate delays in A & E. And from what I hear, not all the GP practices in our area - southern part of Dyffryn Clwyd - appear to be as responsive and efficient as our own has proved to be. But given that news sites like this one seem to attract more folk moaning than complimenting, I thought it worth while to offer some credit where due!

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Tucker

A lot of those signatures weren't even from people living in Wales.

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Brian Coman

Only a small proportion, it was still a huge amount.Also how about the people who can't vote without a computer, people who don't vote , and people who can't be bothered.

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In reply to Brian Coman

Owain Morgan

1. Tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of those signatures were from people residing in parts of England too far away to be affected by speed limit changes in Cymru/Wales. 2. We don't count people who didn't sign petitions, we only count the ones who did and most only count the ones who did it legitimately, not those who were manipulated or did it maliciously. The fact that you can't even acknowledge the fact the death rate from road accidents on these roads is down demonstrates how biased you are. You're not interested in doing the right thing, you're only interested in getting a right wing Government in Cardiff by hook or by crook!

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Brian Coman

The Green Party take the Grangetown Labour stronghold on Cardiff Council which has always been unbeatable. Small news but big news in the scheme of things , totally out of the blue or red even !

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Y Cymro

Voters of Caerphilly can either vote positively or negatively. A simple premise. But we all know it's not the content of your message that's important but who shouts the loudest. Yes, Welsh Labour will be judged both on performance locally and nationally. And even though Hefin David was liked by his constituents Welsh Labour will pay a heavy price electorally for adverse policies like the winter fuel allowance fiasco and tax hikes brought in by UK Labour and other issues not in its power like the ongoing small boats crisis. But I find the likes of Reform UK having the ear of the right-wing press will no doubt feed fear and stir up a hornets nest as done with Brexit to curry favour. And once in office, it's the electorate of Caerphilly, and Wales at the end of the day, who will be the ones stung receiving a combined Anaphylaxis shock to the system believe me. They came for them but now it's you in their crosshairs. We can learn from history, recent in fact, such as America, where former Trump MAGA supporters are being deported with ICE raids, and the poor whose health insurance and benefis have been stopped, policies I might add supported by one Nigel Farage who wants to introduce similar here. If you tolerate this then your children will be next. #Fascism

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James Edwards

This will be a 3 way fight between Labour, Plaid and Reform. People shouldn’t forget that Plaid beat Reform here 12 months ago in the general Election and the Senedd seat is slightly more favourable to Plaid

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Howie

Caerphilly Council has made itself very unpopular with its recent goes at budget cuts, proposing cuts to community meals, libraries and community tourism facilities and services cut latest is changes to bin collection frequency, spending £1.6m on consultants to cut budget, nearly £184m in reserves. Sad to hear of Hefin David's passing but Labour under Sean Morgan have made a dogs dinner of handling the council, they have rowed back on some proposals but have rankled many voters who will not forget. Labour in the Senedd may pay the price.

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Undecided

This is going to be the most important test of opinion in the run up to the Senedd election. Forget about Council by elections and opinion polls. Neither Reform nor Plaid can afford to lose.

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Adam

It just doesn't sit right with me that people from Caerphilly would vote for the Abolish Wales party.

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Replying to hdavies15 Cancel

Great comment there John. Glad you got a service that was up to the required standard. I too have enjoyed something similar here in Penybont ar Ogwr. However there are too many living hereabouts who have serious difficulty with getting...

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