Adam Price 'likely to be in fight for his political life'

Martin Shipton

Former Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price could soon find himself in a fight for his political life, with the likelihood that he will be in a selection battle with fellow MS Cefin Campbell.

The situation arises because of the radical change to the Senedd’s electoral system being introduced for the election in May 2026.

Under the change, MSs who want to continue their careers need to be selected as a candidate in one of 16 new “super constituencies”. Each super constituency will elect six Senedd Members by a form of proportional representation using closed lists of candidates.

People will vote for a party rather than for individuals, and parties will choose the order in which its candidates will be elected, if they win sufficient votes.

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Carmarthen East & Dinefwr

Mr Price currently represents the constituency of Carmarthen East & Dinefwr, which has been held by Plaid Cymru since the then National Assembly came into being in 1999. Following boundary changes, a larger seat called Caerfyrddin has been created. Caerfyrddin will be twinned with the neighbouring seat of Llanelli to form one of the new super constituencies, and Mr Price has stated his intention to seek selection in it.

However, Nation.Cymru has been told by Plaid Cymru insiders that Mr Price may struggle to get selected for a winnable place on the party’s closed list in Caerfyrddin / Llanelli.

While Plaid could win two seats out of the six available, it’s thought highly unlikely that the party could take a third seat.

The party has confirmed that it will not give preferential treatment to sitting MSs in the selection contests. It will also have a “zipping” system, under which it would not be possible for male candidates to hold the top two places on the closed lists.

Cefin Campbell was elected as a regional Senedd Member for Mid and West Wales in 2021 under the old electoral system.

'Very popular'

One Plaid source told us: “Cefin very quickly established himself as an effective representative, is very popular among party members and it is thought highly likely that he would beat Adam in a selection contest for top spot on the new Carmarthenshire closed list.

“Plaid is very likely to have a candidate selection process which alternates male and female candidates. That would mean that a woman would take the second spot on the list and Adam would be left in third position and very unlikely to win a seat in the Senedd.”

Last year there was a rumour in Plaid circles that Mr Price would give up on Carmarthenshire and seek selection for a seat in Cardiff, where Rhys ab Owen, the MS elected for Plaid at the last election in 2021, was expelled from the party after being suspended from the Senedd for inappropriately touching two women when drunk on a night out.

However, Mr Price’s team issued a statement at the time that said: “In order to dispel rumours, Adam announces that he intends seeking nomination as one of the Plaid Cymru candidates in Carmarthenshire in 2026.”

That statement prompted a further rumour – that Cefin Campbell wouldn’t seek to stand in Carmarthenshire, but instead in the adjacent super constituency covering Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire.

Seeking election

Nation.Cymru has been told that Mr Campbell has ruled out that option, and that he will definitely be seeking election in Carmarthenshire. When we asked him about his intentions, Mr Campbell responded: “I am making an official statement next week, so hold tight!”

A longstanding Plaid Cymru member in Carmarthenshire said: “Cefin has been working very hard in the constituency, making sure he meets as many members as he can. He was a county councillor before being elected to the Senedd and is very embedded in his local community, as well as Carmarthenshire as a whole. Although Adam is from Carmarthenshire, he hasn’t spent as much time here recently as Cefin has. That could tell against him in the selection contest.”

It also seems likely that former Mid and West Wales Assembly Member Nerys Evans will seek selection for Plaid in Carmarthenshire, providing another challenge for Mr Price. The longstanding Plaid local source said: “Nerys is also popular locally and will win support from people in the old Carmarthen West seat, where she has previously stood.”

The selection of candidates for the new seats is expected to take place over the next few months.

A Plaid Cymru spokesperson told us: “Plaid Cymru is looking forward to selecting outstanding candidates from across Wales that will represent our communities in the next parliament.

“We will begin the selection process to ensure community and national champions are in place as soon as possible.

“To promote women’s participation and ensure equal representation, a zipping system will be in place, along the principles introduced with the gender quotas bill recently introduced to Parliament.

“The selection process will be fair and transparent, with each member having one vote. There will be no incumbency.

“Plaid Cymru is confident that next year’s Senedd elections will feature exceptional candidates from every corner of Wales.”

Career break

Mr Price was elected as the MP for Carmarthen East & Dinefwr in 2001, holding the seat until 2010 when he took a career break to study at Harvard University’s renowned Kennedy School in Cambridge, Massachusetts. In 2016 he returned to elected politics, becoming the MS for his old constituency.

In 2018 he was elected leader of Plaid Cymru amid high hopes that the party would return to government three years later. But the impact of Brexit and the Covid pandemic changed the political landscape, and Plaid performed below expectations in the 2021 Senedd election.

In 2023 Mr Price resigned as party leader following allegations of bullying and sexual harassment involving members of Plaid’s staff at the Senedd.