Is Wales ready for the post-Labour era? What comes after 25 years of one-party rule?

Jibreel Meddah

For twenty-five years, Welsh democracy has been defined by a single colour. Since the then-National Assembly first opened its doors in 1999, Welsh Labour has done more than just sit in the seats of power. They have essentially owned the room.

The party has outlasted five First Ministers and a global pandemic. They have managed a total transformation of the Senedd’s powers, standing as the only real constant in the shifting tides of Cardiff Bay.

I reached out to Welsh Labour numerous times to ask how they intend to maintain this grip as the 2026 elections loom. They did not answer. No statement was issued, and my questions regarding their vision for the next quarter-century went ignored.

But as the 2026 elections loom, that old sense of certainty is starting to crack.

What used to feel like reliable stability is now being viewed through a much colder lens. The predictability that once offered comfort has lost its shine, leaving many voters to wonder if stability is just a polite word for a country that has stopped moving.

For the first time since devolution began, the big question is no longer whether Labour can be challenged. It is whether the entire system that kept one party on top for a generation is about to be torn apart from the inside.

The legacy of the quarter-century

To grasp the appetite for a post-Labour era, you first have to examine exactly what these first twenty-five years have managed to build. From the early days of 'Red Welsh Way', the strategy of distancing themselves from the London agenda, the party in Cardiff Bay made every effort to define its own identity.

Labour is the government responsible for free prescriptions, the first plastic bag tax in the UK, and the ground-breaking ‘Well-being of Future Generations Act’.

Of course, twenty-five years of the same leadership is a gift to anyone looking to pick a fight. The Welsh Conservatives have built their entire case on the idea that we’re not seeing progress, just a country being managed as it slides downhill.

Darren Millar MS is currently driving that effort, insisting that the 'broken' state of the country today is the direct result of a decades-long marriage of convenience between Labour and Plaid Cymru.

“Poor decisions made as a result of Plaid Cymru support for Welsh Government budgets have precipitated in Wales having the UK’s longest waiting lists, the highest unemployment and languishing at the bottom of the UK’s PISA rankings,” Millar says, framing the 'Red Wall' not as a shield, but as a barrier to the radical reform he believes the nation desperately needs.

Yet, despite the mounting criticism, some experts warn against writing off the Labour machine too soon.

Professor Laura McAllister, who leads political analysis at the Wales Governance Centre, suggests that any talk of a post-Labour era is still premature.

“I think it would be a mistake to talk about a post-Labour narrative at this stage,” McAllister says.

“Clearly we've seen some seismic changes, which makes this election probably the most exciting since the referendum in 1997... But whilst there's no doubt at all that this is an existential threat to Welsh Labour, I think we underestimate the durability of the party at our peril.

"It hasn't been in the impregnable position it's been in for a century, having held seats like Caerphilly since 1918, without strong cultural and social roots amongst the population of Wales.”

The end of the working majority

While political fatigue is definitely in the air, 2026 introduces a structural threat unlike anything the Welsh Government has faced before. The Senedd is currently staring down its most radical overhaul since its inception.

By jumping from 60 to 96 members, the government has essentially redrawn the map of Welsh power overnight. This shift to a proportional system effectively erases the safety net that once allowed Labour to govern alone even when the public vote was split.

This shift remains staunchly opposed by Millar and the Welsh Conservatives, who brand it a £120 million waste.

To Rhun ap Iorwerth, the leader of Plaid Cymru, the new rules are the only way to break the cycle of stagnation caused by one-party rule that has typified Wales for decades.

He argues that more members are not about more politicians, but about giving Wales the representation it needs to scrutinise decisions and make better laws.

“This new system encourages collaboration and pluralism, not the tribalism of one-party dominance,” ap Iorwerth says. He believes that moving away from the archaic first past the post system will facilitate a change in culture within Welsh democratic institutions.

However, Professor McAllister points out that this shift makes a single-party government almost impossible.

“It's safe to say it's almost impossible for a single party to get over that magic 49-seat threshold and form a government of its own,” she explains. This mathematically explainable shift means that for the first time, deals and coalitions are not just a choice, but a necessity.

The challengers: A two-front war

For Plaid Cymru, the 2026 election is being framed as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to lead a national government.

Rhun ap Iorwerth claims that Labour has grown tired and complacent after twenty-six years in power.

“They have given up on finding new, innovative ideas to support our public services or grow our economy,” he says.

Under his leadership, he promises that a Plaid Cymru government would no longer be subservient to Westminster and would be unyielding in fighting for what Wales is owed, from missing HS2 billions to power over natural resources.

The traditional Plaid-Labour duopoly is under threat from outside by the rise of Reform UK. As noted by McAllister, Reform is creating a double whammy effect for the First Minister, Eluned Morgan.

“She's been blamed for policy failures in Wales, and also a kind of deep-rooted hatred of Starmer is manifesting itself in the poll ratings as well,” McAllister observes.

While Reform UK did not respond to requests for comment regarding their specific 2026 manifesto, the party has made no secret of its plans for a major surge in Wales. High-profile figures have set their sights on winning between 20 and 40 seats in the expanded 96-member chamber, looking to exploit the new proportional system to its full extent.

Rhun ap Iorwerth acknowledges this threat but frames the election as a two-way fight between his party and the populist right. He suggests that Labour’s time has passed and the Conservatives are in disarray.

When I asked him about this choice, he was direct about the stakes: “The choice facing Wales is between two very different futures. A Plaid Cymru government focused on hope and ambition, or a Reform presence that looks only to Westminster.”

To the Plaid Cymru Leader, the middle ground has disappeared, leaving voters to decide between a positive national vision or an insurgent movement from the fringes.

The two forces in this election, the established government and the rising populist threat, are united only in their silence. Both Welsh Labour and Reform UK declined to comment for this piece.

A pluralistic future?

As May 2026 approaches, the real debate isn't just about which party wins the most seats. It is about whether Wales is actually ready for a different way of doing things.

Rhun ap Iorwerth has already thrown down the gauntlet with a 100-day plan, promising an immediate break from the Labour era. His pitch is urgent: slashing waiting lists and tackling child poverty to show that the "old normal" is no longer acceptable.

If his vision holds, the "post-Labour" period won't just be a change of face. It will be a negotiated government where no single party can force its manifesto through without a consensus. It marks a shift from a century of dominance to a landscape where deals are the only way forward.

For McAllister, this election is far more significant than just a standard trip to the ballot box.

“I don't think it's a referendum on the past 25 years," she says. "I think it's a moment in Welsh political history. It shows a willingness for the electorate to remove their historic ties with that party...

"It’s a moment of hope as well, in that certainly on the left, people are likely to be backing a range of parties that have constructive ideas about the future of Wales."

Whether this leads to a more dynamic, accountable democracy or a period of political gridlock remains to be seen. But after 25 years, the process of devolution is entering its most unpredictable phase.

The red wall hasn't fallen yet, but for the first time, the cracks are telling their own story.