Without a paradigm shift Starmer’s Labour looks doomed

Dr Keith Darlington

Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour has been in power for less than a year, yet polls show them recording abysmally low approval ratings, with the Prime Minister being seen as a man defined by u-turns and a lack of purpose.

This should come as no surprise. From the day he was elected leader, Starmer’s whole approach was to offer a policy-light manifesto with little discussion about its contents.

Any opposition from MPs was suppressed by threatening expulsions or promotion opportunities,
but that approach has backfired spectacularly in recent days, with many of his new MPs refusing to back his benefit cuts to the disabled.

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His authority is eroding fast, and he could struggle to complete his term without a change in direction.

In this article, I demonstrate that without a change of direction, the Starmer government appears to be doomed. Welsh Labour should also consider their relationship with UK Labour carefully if they are to have any chance of success in the Senedd Elections next year.

Now is the time to be forthright about getting a fairer deal for Wales.

How not to do Politics

The failings of the Starmer Labour government have once again been making headline news.
Making three U-turns on major policies in a month is not the way to do politics. It’s not just policy failings; it's also how a government that said it would, unlike its predecessors, offer probity and honesty. Yet, they treat voters as fools by pretending that these are not U-turns at all, but relatively minor policy modifications.

We were told that the change to the Winter Fuel Allowance was made because the government could now afford to do it, as the economy has improved. It's nonsense because the economy hasn't improved in their short time in government, and these changes have blown a massive hole in their hopes of balancing the books.

It's an appalling indictment for a PM, who, despite having an enormous majority in Parliament, cannot win over his MPs after less than a year in government.

Excuses are a rarity for a PM

Starmer supporters say he is an honourable man who cares about integrity. Yet, the Pensions
Minister made the disability cuts announcement months ago. He won't admit to getting the
decision on disability cuts wrong. Instead, the PM tells us that he was distracted by the NATO conference and failed to give the matter of benefit cuts sufficient attention.

This is extraordinary for a PM because all his predecessors have had their share of overseas conference commitments too, yet none have ever complained. Excuses are becoming the order of the day as he also excused his choice of words in his 'Island of Strangers' speech, in which he invoked the rhetoric of Enoch Powell.

Again, he tells us that he was distracted by other matters. Many thought that these words were inserted by his spin doctor, Morgan McSweeney, but it's been said that McSweeney didn't want him to use these words.

This choice of words would have been anathema to virtually all associated with the Labour movement. Most assume that the PM decided to use them to chase Reform votes, but whatever the reason, it again backfired, and now he has apologised for the choice of words. The adage that comes to mind here is: “Never explain and never complain”.

The buck stops with the PM

Starmer must take responsibility for what has gone wrong because, in all the opinion polling
evidence completed to date, voters consistently say that they don’t know what he is for.

Yes, he muses in vague terms about growth, what changes does he really want? Few people seem to know.

In the recently written book called “Get In”, his spin doctor says he is more of an HR manager than a leader; he is in front of the train but not driving it. Whatever qualities he has, it's hard to think of a Prime Minister with less purpose, vision, or a clear sense of direction. Even the PM acknowledges that there is no such thing as Starmerism, stating that he treats every issue on a case-by-case basis.

Such an approach may work in boom times, but it is unlikely to be effective in this era of crisis. A leader without a guiding set of principles is likely to flounder by searching for something that works, rather than having a belief-based purpose.

His spin doctor has attempted to craft a persona for Starmer that portrays him as a calm, cautious politician. Yet, that doesn't sit easily with a man who makes U-turns faster than the flick of a switch. A lack of purpose and resolve often leads to these U-turns.

Many blame Chancellor Rachel Reeves and McSweeney for what’s gone wrong. There is a tendency in politics to blame the Courtiers rather than the King. However, the PM must take his share of the blame for his misfortune, and Labour MPs and members should now be asking themselves if they can endure another four years with this man as their leader.

A paradigm shift is the only way out of the current impasse. He could start by engaging sincerely with the public and surrounding himself with courtiers who understand the Labour movement.

Welsh and UK Labour

Welsh Labour should also think about its relationship with UK Labour.

They have been successful in Wales for the past 26 years, either governing alone or in coalition with other parties. However, opinion polls suggest that this era is coming to a close.

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If they want to prevent a Reform government from gaining power, as many of us do, then they must show that their priorities are Wales first.

It should be clear to all by now that they are hardly likely to gain traction from ingratiating themselves with UK Labour. The spin that politics is better with Labour on both sides of the M4 won’t mean much to voters unless they see tangible results.

Dr Keith Darlington is a former university lecturer