Will the next Wales-wide set of elections reach a new low in terms of turnout?

Martin Shipton

As concern continues about the disengagement from politics of a large section of the Welsh population, there’s a possibility that a new low might be reached on May 2.

People across Wales will have the opportunity to elect one of four Police and Crime Commissioners (PCCs), depending on where they live.

The expectations of turnout are so low that I’ve heard it said that getting into double figures percentage-wise would be considered a triumph.

Only a small hard core - the kind of tribalistic party loyalist with an inane grin who loves posting pictures of themselves on social media while taking a short break from delivering leaflets - are enthused by this dullest of dull contests.

In the South Wales Police area, the outgoing PCC is Alun Michael, who has held the role since it was created in 2012. Briefly our national leader, his title as head of the National Assembly was First Secretary, as if he was the dour frontman of a clapped-out Communist regime in Eastern Europe.

Having failed spectacularly to live up to the expectations of his sponsor, Tony Blair, he went back to Westminster with his tail between his legs and, after being handed a junior role in government, decided to become the ultimate bureaucrat’s bureaucrat by standing to be the inaugural PCC on his home patch.

So inspired by his candidacy was the local populace that just 14.7% of them took the trouble to vote, of whom 46.95% opted for him, equivalent to 6.9% of the electorate. Only a swivel-eyed loon would describe that as a ringing endorsement.

On May 2, however, whatever charisma Mr Michael may - or may not - have will not be on offer. For the first time since 1973, when he began his lengthy political career as a Cardiff councillor, he won’t hold elected office.

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Boycott

But it’s not Mr Michael’s absence from the ballot paper that has former Bridgend council Labour leader Jeff Jones wondering whether he should boycott the PCC election. He first voted at the 1970 general election and hasn’t failed to do so since.

He said: “I was a student at the LSE [London School of Economics] and was registered to vote at home in Maesteg. I got the train to Cardiff and the bus to Maesteg, voted, had some grub with my family and went back to London.

“But I have no interest in this election. I think the role of PCC is a waste of time. Under the old system of police authorities, there were representatives of all the councils in the area and councillors could put questions to the Chief Constable, giving them a tough time. I’m a former police authority member myself, and that certainly used to happen.

“The campaigning I’ve seen on social media at this election is making claims for the PCC role that just don’t stack up. It’s been suggested that the PCC will increase the number of prosecutions. That has nothing to do with the PCC - it’s the Crown Prosecution Service that decides whether people face charges or nor.

“Some candidates are arguing that the criminal justice system should be devolved - but again, that has nothing to do with the PCC. It’s a political question that will be decided by politicians.

“The system has been in place for 12 years now. At the time it was introduced by the Tories and the Liberal Democrats, it was said there would be much more accountability, with the PCC holding the Chief Constable to account. I’ve seen no evidence of that. So far as I can see, it’s been quite a cosy set-up, certainly in the South Wales force area. Apart from which, the Lib Dems no longer back the system.

“What’s astonished me recently is that the Labour candidate taking over from Alun Michael, Emma Wools, received an endorsement on a party social media post that said policing was institutionally racist and that Emma would deal with it. That’s a very serious allegation to make. If it’s true, it means that Alun Michael has been Police and Crime Commissioner for 12 years, supposedly holding to account a force that is institutionally racist. Surely he would have to take some of the blame if that’s really the case. As would Emma Wools, who is currently the Deputy PCC.

“Over the 12 years that the PCC system has been operating, has there been a published evaluation of the benefits it has brought to policing? If so, I haven’t seen it. I think it should be scrapped. Instead there should be one police force for Wales and it should be answerable to the Senedd and the Welsh Government.”

Unopposed

Mr Jones was also unhappy about the way Labour candidates had been selected. As Nation.Cymru reported last year, none of the four candidates in Wales went through a competitive process. All were selected unopposed.

There’s a strong whiff of another stitch-up. Some party members received an email with a few days' notice that there was a deadline approaching by which time they had to declare their interest in becoming a PCC.

Others, including Jeff Jones, are adamant that they had no such email and were completely unaware that selections were taking place. There’s a belief that the candidacies were reserved for the party hierarchy’s chosen ones.

A Labour source told me: “There remains considerable disquiet in Welsh Labour that members were not allowed to select our candidate. In such a low turnout election, it is crucial that members work to get out the vote. Having candidates imposed is not the best way to inspire us to work.”

Outside the Labour Party, there are others who are usually highly politically engaged, yet antagonistic to the PCC elections. Ceri Davies has been a Green Party council candidate in Cardiff and is co-presenter of the impressive Welsh political podcast Hiraeth. He told me he intends to spoil his ballot paper.

“The PCC role isn’t something I’ve taken a great deal of interest in or, to be honest, have much knowledge of,” he said. “Generally speaking, though, I’m not happy about the politicisation of the police. I think it’s totally inappropriate.

“In terms of the way things have turned out, so far as I can see, the PCC system seems to be a breeding ground for political nepotism. I certainly don’t get the impression that there’s much in the way of holding the Chief Constable to account.

“The incident that stands out for me is the tragic case where the two young lads died when their electric bike crashed in Ely after a police chase. It seemed to me that Alun Michael was making public statements exonerating the police before all the facts had come out.”

Will Jeff Jones really boycott the election after being such a dedicated every-time voter for more than half a century? He said: “I may reconsider if I actually get a leaflet from the candidates. So far I’ve had nothing. This is a really weird election.”

Record low

And it’s not inconceivable that it could provide a record low in terms of turnout. There’s no other election in Wales for the PCC one to piggy-back on.

This time, also, voters will be expected to bring photographic ID with them for the first time in Wales. Another disincentive to participation, one might say.

I think of the first multiracial election in South Africa after Nelson Mandela was released from prison, with elderly first-time voters celebrating and crying with joy despite queuing for many hours or even days.

And then I think of the likely empty scenes outside - and inside - Welsh polling stations on May 2.

What has become of our democracy?