Will Eluned Morgan stand up for Wales and demand a change in economic policy? Or will she roll over and let events take their course?

Martin Shipton

Have we seen the first glimmering of potential conflict between the Welsh Government and the UK Government?

If so, it comes not a moment too soon.

In the immediate aftermath of the general election, all we heard about was that we now had two Labour governments that would be working together for the good of Wales.

It was a nice idea in theory - the kind of fantasy politics that political parties who have just won an election like to indulge in. It gives a warm feeling to those who have been pounding the streets, delivering leaflets, having the occasional conversation with voters and posing for selfies they can post on social media as part of their campaign for a closed list seat at the next Senedd election in 2026.

But given the inevitable clash looming over the allocation of resources, the honeymoon was never going to last.

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Statement of intent

That’s not to say that the conflict is yet overt. The announcement that NHS Wales will be cooperating with NHS England to reduce hospital waiting times was a headline-grabbing statement of intent that allowed both governments to initially give the impression that they had a realistic plan to deal with what has certainly been an albatross round the neck of the Welsh Government for many years, and which has caused increasing concern in England too.

Yet we’ve been told we need to wait a while for further details of how the improvements will actually be delivered.

What could be the reason for this? Are health officials from the respective governments working through the logistics of how cooperation will work in practice? It’s difficult to imagine a conversation between UK Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Welsh Cabinet Secretary for Health Jeremy Miles in which the former offers extra resources to the latter to bring waiting times down in Wales. Wouldn’t voters in England take a dim view of such largesse, especially if it became clear that Wales was benefitting to a greater extent?

Private sector

The situation may become clearer when a more detailed announcement is made. Clarity, however, won’t necessarily lead to greater harmony - especially if, as seems very likely, Mr Streeting sees greater use of the private sector as the key to a solution. I look forward to seeing how this plays out in the coming weeks and months.

While the Labour Party wants us to welcome the notion of two governments coming together for a non-stop love-in, I have to confess that the idea fills me with unease. I appreciated the creative tension that existed between the Welsh Labour government led by Mark Drakeford in Cardiff and the UK Tory government led by a succession of unimpressive and, in at least two cases, egregious prime ministers.

In the arguments over post-Brexit regional aid and constitutional power grabs, for example, Mr Drakeford came over as someone who was genuinely fighting Wales’ corner against a remote administration that didn’t have our nation’s interests at heart. The Tories may have got their way on most things, but not without a fight and clear statements from Cardiff that demonstrated how the moral high ground remained in Wales’ corner.

Compare that to the Welsh Government’s recent decision to let Westminster legislate on the regulation of water instead of doing so itself. Power grabs are OK, it seems, if the grabbing is done by another Labour administration.

HS2

The glimmer of hope, however, stems from First Minister Eluned Morgan’s assertion that she will fight Wales’ corner over the issue of the missing billions owed to us because of the unjust decision to classify the HS2 rail project as an England and Wales venture rather than one that will exist only in England.

In doing so, Baroness Morgan is deviating from the line spun by Secretary of State for Wales Jo Stevens, who like a reverse magician has somehow managed to reduce the amount owed to Wales from several billion pounds to several hundred million. Other Welsh Labour MPs have swallowed the reduction without protest, as have even some of the party’s Senedd Members. We’ll see how far the First Minister is prepared to stick her neck out over this issue.

She’s made the point that many ministers will be beating their way to Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ door with special pleas for their policy areas. Baroness Morgan, however, represents a nation and must insist on being heard, however much Ms Reeves may seek to present herself as a stickler for neo-liberal fiscal rules.

It would be inconceivable for the regional government in Catalonia, for example, to be seen to suck up to the Spanish government in Madrid, even if, as now, both administrations are led by politicians from the PSOE (Socialist Workers’ Party). The President of the Generalitat in Barcelona is expected by his population to represent Catalonia before anything, including his own party - and that’s how a Welsh Labour First Minister should behave too, even if they get into conflict with politicians of the same stripe as themselves.

Plaid Cymru MS Mabon ap Gwynfor, his party’s health spokesman at the Senedd, has, as one might expect, little faith in Welsh Labour to stand up for Wales.

'Robbed'

He told me: “In recent years Labour in Wales has developed policies that would see more powers devolved to the Senedd in the fields of broadcasting, justice and policing. Equally, there is the problem of HS2, where we have been robbed of billions of pounds.

“What steps will Labour in Wales, under Eluned Morgan, take to ensure these powers and this money comes our way? So far, it seems that the Welsh Government will steer clear of pushing for more powers in any meaningful way and things will just carry on as normal.

“We've had no clarity about how the health services in Wales and England will work together to bring down waiting times. You might have thought that with her experience of having been Health Minister, Eluned Morgan would know exactly what needed to be done. But it seems not. The likelihood is that whatever initiative they come up with will be driven not from Wales, but from Westminster. And it’s unlikely they’ll come up with anything to improve the availability of social care, so people can be discharged from hospital in the knowledge they will be safe at home. They've been talking about that since the dawn of devolution, of course.

“What Labour can’t get away from - and what will cause them problems - is that their members in Wales are generally to the left of where the UK party centrally wants to be. That will inevitably lead to tension within the party in Wales as it becomes clear that unpopular decisions like scrapping the Winter Fuel Allowance for a lot of pensioners will be pushed through. Eluned Morgan and her ministers will have to decide how they respond.”

It’s a huge choice for Eluned Morgan to make as UK Labour prepares to embark on what may very well amount to a new programme of austerity. Will she stand up for Wales and demand a change in economic policy? Or will she roll over and let events take their course?