What does the latest YouGov poll tell us about support for Welsh independence?

"we can also consider the preferences of Remain and Leave voters. Here, we find a very clear distinction, though one which isn’t reflected, it seems, in the policy positions of Yes Cymru." That's an odd comment. YesCymru has a very simple policy position - we want independence for Cymru. That's it. YesCymru has no policy position on the EU, NATO or the provision of more bus shelters in Llanfihangel Genau'r Glyn. All those are matters for the Cymry, through their political parties and elected Seneddwyr to decide, once we have decided to become independent. YesCymru is for ALL who want independence.

The Daroganau said that we will lose all Britain except Gwynedd before the tide turns. We hold Ynys Mon and Gwynedd yet. We will lose Ynys Mon before the tide turns in favour of the Britons.

Despite the recent experience with polls the wordsmiths and chatterers are out there drawing all sorts of conclusions . The same people will tell us the day after the results why the polls were so far adrift especially in these troubled mixed up times. The only way to secure any kind of positive outcome is to get a clear articulate message and plenty of people on the ground to communicate it. For the wordsmiths that is too much like hard work, and the chatterers prefer the echo chamber of their own kind.

It is that disrespect for other people's views that will help support for independence to grow. It is not that the "noisy minority" are getting louder it is that there's more of us,

"Should Wales be an independent country? 28% say Yes, 72% No. (14% Don’t Knows or Refused)" How does this add up?

The poll seems to present two contrasting findings (although these are in no way contradictory): 1. A majority of those supporting independence in a yes/no question would actually prefer some kind of devolution if they were given the choice. 2. A majority of those who favour greater powers for Wales (and possibly even a few of those who favour things the way they are) would support independence in a yes/no vote. To speculate further, could it also suggest an apparent increase in the emotional appeal of independence, but that this is not reflected in terms of its popularity as a specific constitutional and policy objective?

It is noticeable how conservative with a small 'c' are nearly all the age groups. The number of 18-24 year olds preferring the status quo is not much smaller than the number of people over 65 preferring the same. Understandably older voters are keener on the status quo ante 1999 whereas for younger voters that means going back to 'the past' not to the system they once knew. Considering the fact that UK Government has been suffering from a complete breakdown over the past three and a half years, it is incredible that figures for independence and more powers aren't higher. For people aged 18-25, the UK Government has been totally dysfunctional nearly all their active political lives, (or claiming to be bankrupt with the selective austerity after the financial crash). The fact that the Welsh Government and Plaid Cymru have not capitalized on this is one for someone else to explain.

Why the older population tend to be more anti-independence may be down to those looking towards retirement and the UK state pension. This is an aspect we must consider. the population are forced to pay into the Uk state pension scheme. What happens when Wales does go independent and particularly if England (the remaining UK nation) is outside the EU customs union - then state pensions are frozen. Alsom, the option that exist in the private schemes of a transfer value simply does not exist in the UK state scheme as it is a pyramid scheme funded by new contributors. A new independent state has got to either receive a transfer value or it has to negoiate a special special pension payment arrangement for those that have been forced to pay into the UK fund.

Things that may move minds; Poor economic performance as result of Brexit . Effect of a United Ireland . Effect of Independent Scotland. Death of Queen. Growing power of the European Union, as a result of Brexit and Macron's centralism. Stronger European Union economic ties with Russia. Any or all of these will gnaw away at confidence of Brit. Nats.

I'm a UK based foreign correspondent. On a recent reporting trip to Wales with a colleague on the topic of the Yes Cymru campaign and Brexit we were pointed towards this blog. It's fine, however the author is inconsistent it seems to me with what he uses as the ground base for his figures. In the binary question ("If there was a ref tomorrow on Wales becoming independent how would you vote, yes or no?") he discards the Don't Knows, which allows him to get to a high 28% of Yes voters. This, unsurprisingly, was the figure Plaid Cymru / Yes Cymru activists were fond of quoting to us as it is decidedly up from your typical poll a few years ago. In the original YouGov poll the stats look bit different though, the Yes figure is 21%. So what the author did in this instance was add the 21% Yes and 57% No's and make them his base of 100%, casting away the 14% Don't Knows. In the next question about preferences the author takes the figures directly from the YouGov stats, including 11% of those surveyed who opt for Independence. The other options in this case add up to 71%, so with the 18% Don't Knows included the base here is all the persons surveyed. I'm not a pollster obviously, but as far as I know it's alright to discard the Don't Knows in such a manner. But it should be done consistently if you want to avoid comparing apples with pears, and readers should be made aware of the method.