Opinion
What does a Trump victory mean for the US and for us?
Jonathan Edwards
In less than a month the world from a Western perspective could look very differently.
If the latest polling intelligence is correct, Donald Trump is pulling clear in some of the key swing states that determine the US Presidential election.
There is a reason why Elon Musk has reportedly set up base in Pennsylvania and is offering $1m daily incentives for people to register to vote Republican on November 5.
If the last Trump Presidency was characterised by complete chaos, the general feeling is that if he were to win, matters will be far more organised this time, with a very dangerous and sinister programme driving the actions of the White House.
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Project 2025
The New York Times has reported this week on the close links between the Trump team and the Heritage Foundation and their so-called Project 2025. In the interest of balance, I should declare that Trump has distanced himself from the Foundation, claiming he knows “nothing” about it.
However, the essential Project 25 aims of dismantling the institutions of the state and exerting executive control resemble closely the rhetoric Trump likes to deploy.
Project 2025 is a 900-page document published by the Heritage Foundation in 2023 - but it is far more than just a very large manifesto. The AP news agency reports it is a political project in the true sense of the word, including a first 180-day playbook for the new administration and a database of 20,000 individuals to be deployed to staff a new Trump White House.
This indicates an unheralded degree of planning; matters have been organised down to the last dot. If implemented, the ground will be hit running on turbo boosters with the aim of restructuring the federal government with the FBI and Homeland Security coming under direct Presidential control.
Conservative Christian values
Specifics include politicising the Justice Department; dismantling the Department of Education; the so-called “deep state” will be dismantled by making it possible to sack thousands of civil servants to be replaced by MAGA (Make America Great Again) devotees; the executive branch of US governance will fall completely under the control of the President; the government and wider society will be infused with conservative Christian values.
It is undoubtedly a lurch towards autocracy - some would say fascism. Legal experts are warning that civil liberties and the rule of law will be undermined; the Church will be incorporated into the state; and the separation of powers central to the US constitution will be blurred.
In policy terms it advocates cuts to health support; abortion will not be considered a health care issue; environmental regulations will be slashed and fossil fuels promoted; legal protections against discrimination on the grounds of sexual orientation and gender identification will be removed; and diversity and equality programmes will be cut, while the Department of Justice will be encouraged to prosecute anti-white racism. Frighteningly the military will be used for domestic law enforcement.
Deportations
As we approach the closing stage of the race Trump is ramping up rhetoric on immigration, promising mass deportations. We are talking about figures in the range of 11 million people. Leaving aside the cost of such a policy and the economic and social destruction that it would entail; we are witnessing a direct challenge to the liberal political order that has governed Western societies for generations.
If Trump wins, the world will immediately become a darker place. With the right in the UK also heading towards this path both mainstream and fringe, what might well be rolled out in the States after January’s inauguration could be heading this way very soon.
The left and the centre of the political spectrum in the UK and in Wales must unite. Rather than leaning to the right in an appeasement strategy, Prime Minister Starmer must bridge to the left and build a coalition able to withstand the waves driving the tides of history. To do so the Labour UK and Welsh governments need a moral purpose that can enthuse.
Next week’s UK Government Budget in my eyes is not just a big financial event, it is a gigantically important political event. If we don’t get a clear sense of direction from the Budget, then the Labour government will find itself attacked from all sides. The centre that Starmer occupies won’t hold.
Does the UK Government have a masterplan? We are about to find out.
Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr from 2010 until 2024
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