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Opinion

What does a Trump victory mean for the US and for us?

By Mark Mansfield
Former President Donald Trump appears at Manhattan criminal court. Photo Santiago/Pool Photo via AP

Jonathan Edwards

In less than a month the world from a Western perspective could look very differently.

If the latest polling intelligence is correct, Donald Trump is pulling clear in some of the key swing states that determine the US Presidential election.

There is a reason why Elon Musk has reportedly set up base in Pennsylvania and is offering $1m daily incentives for people to register to vote Republican on November 5.

If the last Trump Presidency was characterised by complete chaos, the general feeling is that if he were to win, matters will be far more organised this time, with a very dangerous and sinister programme driving the actions of the White House.

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Project 2025

The New York Times has reported this week on the close links between the Trump team and the Heritage Foundation and their so-called Project 2025. In the interest of balance, I should declare that Trump has distanced himself from the Foundation, claiming he knows “nothing” about it.

However, the essential Project 25 aims of dismantling the institutions of the state and exerting executive control resemble closely the rhetoric Trump likes to deploy.

Project 2025 is a 900-page document published by the Heritage Foundation in 2023 - but it is far more than just a very large manifesto. The AP news agency reports it is a political project in the true sense of the word, including a first 180-day playbook for the new administration and a database of 20,000 individuals to be deployed to staff a new Trump White House.

This indicates an unheralded degree of planning; matters have been organised down to the last dot. If implemented, the ground will be hit running on turbo boosters with the aim of restructuring the federal government with the FBI and Homeland Security coming under direct Presidential control.

Conservative Christian values

Specifics include politicising the Justice Department; dismantling the Department of Education; the so-called “deep state” will be dismantled by making it possible to sack thousands of civil servants to be replaced by MAGA (Make America Great Again) devotees; the executive branch of US governance will fall completely under the control of the President; the government and wider society will be infused with conservative Christian values.

It is undoubtedly a lurch towards autocracy - some would say fascism. Legal experts are warning that civil liberties and the rule of law will be undermined; the Church will be incorporated into the state; and the separation of powers central to the US constitution will be blurred.

In policy terms it advocates cuts to health support; abortion will not be considered a health care issue; environmental regulations will be slashed and fossil fuels promoted; legal protections against discrimination on the grounds of sexual orientation and gender identification will be removed; and diversity and equality programmes will be cut, while the Department of Justice will be encouraged to prosecute anti-white racism. Frighteningly the military will be used for domestic law enforcement.

Deportations

As we approach the closing stage of the race Trump is ramping up rhetoric on immigration, promising mass deportations. We are talking about figures in the range of 11 million people. Leaving aside the cost of such a policy and the economic and social destruction that it would entail; we are witnessing a direct challenge to the liberal political order that has governed Western societies for generations.

If Trump wins, the world will immediately become a darker place. With the right in the UK also heading towards this path both mainstream and fringe, what might well be rolled out in the States after January’s inauguration could be heading this way very soon.

The left and the centre of the political spectrum in the UK and in Wales must unite. Rather than leaning to the right in an appeasement strategy, Prime Minister Starmer must bridge to the left and build a coalition able to withstand the waves driving the tides of history. To do so the Labour UK and Welsh governments need a moral purpose that can enthuse.

Next week’s UK Government Budget in my eyes is not just a big financial event, it is a gigantically important political event. If we don’t get a clear sense of direction from the Budget, then the Labour government will find itself attacked from all sides. The centre that Starmer occupies won’t hold.

Does the UK Government have a masterplan? We are about to find out.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr from 2010 until 2024

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41 comments

S Duggan

The US is a very polarised country. If Trump wins and does start to implement some of the radical policies mentioned the country could well be heading for civil war. A US caught up in internal strife could well give autocrats around the world the green light to do what they want ( far worse than their actions now). So Harris needs to win and Trump needs to end up behind bars

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hdavies15

Very polarised view - right/wrong, black/white, true/false, - which will only lead to disappointment when the "wrong" candidate wins the election. The major concern for me is the shocking weakness of both candidates. Trump is now showing his age, his decline into some form of dementia or poor cognitive condition, rambling away like an angry old man in a bar. Harris' lack of vision is hidden by the fact that "she's not Trump" which may suffice for now but won't drive change in 2025 and onwards. She also rants but not yet in Trump style, but she needs more coherence, more structure, more purpose. We shouldn't be too smug either. We are already seeing how bad our lot are. 5 years since the dimwit Johnson was elected and we haven't seen much good in that period. Rhetoric rich diets supplemented with downright lies. Yet we seem to put up with it.

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Linda Jones

Clearly a Trump win could prove disastrous for us all and the rise of the far right both nationally and internationally has to be resisted. Democracy has been and is being sold off to the highest bidder as political parties morph into one common neo liberal, monetarist ideology, both in the US and the UK. Here the Tories and Labour are practically one in the same while the markets, ie big money, seem to rule the roost. How the neo liberals parties could work with the left is difficult to imagine, it would involve a major shift in the ruling ideology and how it's reported in the media and the press. However the reduction in inequality and the redistribution of wealth that would be required is to be welcomed. With regard to the US I am particularly concerned for the women as Trump and his cronies work hard to seize control of their bodies and their reproductive choices. Criminal in my opinion.

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Ernie The Smallholder

There is nothing liberal about what is happening. What is happening is monopolisation of wealth, power and capital into oligarchs. Liberty is gradually being removed in the US, UK and elsewhere. Describe it as 'Monopoly capitalism'. Plaid Cymru in Cymru, SNP in Scotland, Sinn Fein and Alliance in Ireland, Greens and Liberal democrats in England must show there is an alternative. True liberalism is egalitarian: a society of freedom, choice and access to justice and wealth.

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Ernie The Smallholder

Jack, you cannot be too sure. Who would have thought when Putin was elected in Russia in 2001 that he would have ordered an attack on the Ukraine ? Then there are the war crimes being enacted against Gaza and everyone else in the region by the Netanyahu regime in Israel - Making Muslims & Jewish people around the world feel less safe. The danger of nuclear weapons in the hands of Trump and Putin feels us all with fear. Europe needs to stand together against this growing fascism. This includes Cymru, Scotland, Ireland and England.

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Karl

Antinwoke equals bigot. He stands for men in power and women as subjects. His make America great again is a hard to 1950s. So no black rights and no women's. He caused an insurrection. He will create civil war. Trump has no policies just lies, Harris has set out policies

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Rob

Yes it has been thrown about. But if your going to refuse to condemn or distance yourself from white nationalists, call neo-nazis very fine people after they killed a protester, or incite an insurrection in an attempt to overturn democracy then the label is appropriate.

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Adrian

Maybe, maybe not. The problem with the left is that they apply it to anyone who holds an opinion they don't like: hence my point about the term carrying no weight any more.

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Alun

Good comment

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Padi Phillips

Exactly who on 'the left'? Once again you throw comments into the ring without any real idea about what you're talking about. Sure, there are some who overuse the term, but the left in politics is a very broad sector. The right, if anything, seems even more thin-skinned when it comes to those who don't share their beliefs. Mostly, the 'far right' are just that, so perhaps you need an appointment with your local Specsavers?

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Mab Meirion

For us it will mean whatever Clark of Kent wants it to mean...he has is own way of thinking...

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Mab Meirion

Trump will rename London Clarksville if he wins, same sh*t bigger fan...

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Jeff

Trump has already told the world what he will do, he will go after the press and politicians that called him out correctly (he wonders if he can use the army to that). he will drop Ukraine onto putins lap. He will try to set his family up as a dynasty in control of the US. His words. His other words absolutely guarantee his claims of cognitive health are completely false. He often stumbles and bumbles his way through many a stand up, he is incoherent and confused yet he bleated on about Biden. And if Trump has to stand down as No47, then that leaves the door open for Vance and he is a really nasty piece of work. Trump will burn the world to line his pockets. When his ex Chief of Staff describes his thoughts on Hitler, you should listen to him. Musk has stopped the payouts, the authorities got interested and asked for details (and there is an interesting article on his regular contact with Putin). And we have many UK politicians that look to trump and the heritage foundation for succour (Dowden boasted on his speech there). They are happy for the convictions and his attitude to women, that should tell you a lot about our politicos and people that want him to win. Interesting to see who is up in front of the beak for election meddling last election and who is in jail for it and links directly to Trump. Guilliani is skint cos of his comments on officials got tested in court and now he has to pay for it but trump always walks away. Speaking of paying for it, anyone seen his 100k watch for sale? Interesting story behind that one. I really hope Harris wipes the floor with him, he ran away scared from a second debate cos she stood up to him and used things called facts. But trump is setting the scene for a nation riot should he lose. The far right, fascist, whatever, the names fit.

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Padi Phillips

Anyone who has read Miles Taylor's Blowback will know that Trump isn't the brains this time around. It's those behind him who are the real danger, and it seems they have control. I don't know whether a second Trump presidency would trigger a civil war, but those hoping to challenge him democratically will be all out of luck as democracy as we understand it will be as dead as a dodo. Quite how there will be a pushback to Trump and MAGA who seem hell-bent on founding a dystopian society like that described in A Handmaid's Tale, I don't know, but the USA is big and Trumps supporters are actually in the minority, though of course the huge numbers of non-voters massively amplify his support.

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Jeff

Worth a read? But oh yeh, there are a lot of hooks into the bloke and his business. I am taking his action and words myself at the moment from the press reports etc. But love a good insight book (held off on this person for some reason and tempted by Woodward, will wait till after election) I still think Trump is a danger in himself. He has already taken the rnc, however more and more Republicans are coming out against him which is refreshing. When I followed the senate inquiry it was clear that Pence and Pelosi were in serious danger for their lives from a mob (though not alone and people did die). Trump didn't bat an eye lid. Pence had upset Trump for not handing the election to Trump. Security teams in that place must have been seconds from a bloodbath. Just seeing that Harris has Beyonce at her rally in Houston and its packed and Trumps fans get 3+ hours late arrival at Traverse City (fan leaving before he got there) and a video of Trump as a filler. And the Washington Post was about to declare for Harris and Bezos pulled the plug. Interesting dynamic there, with Musk (also reported many connection to Russian as well) then the Saudi cash to Trump org, the string board for this must be mental.

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Linda Jones

Most people know what 'far right' means in the broader sense and for sure they are on the rise

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Adrian

The far left is a far bigger threat I'm afraid.

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Mab Meirion

Oh! Adrian you are funny...

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Jeff

Yeah, the Oathkeepers and Proud Boy leaders eh, how they doing. what are they in for? 18 and 22 years for playing at far right games.

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Annibendod

Utter codswallop.

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Padi Phillips

The far left are simply not a far bigger threat, as they are so far away from holding any kind of power wheras the far right are far too close to holding power, so much so that even centrist governments are implementing policies to appease the far right instead of boldly clamping down on them. With imagination it is relatively simple to preserve democracy, freedom of speech and also clamp down on the far right. However if you could explain to us just how the fragmented and polarised far left is as existential a threat as the far right then I'm sure we'll all be very grateful to you. Please provide some evidence for your claims.

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Jeff

Trump is already laying the ground for his storm troopers to run riot if he loses. He tried it in 2020, failed, he now knows how far he has to go to cheat again. Already there are fires in post boxes carrying votes, and election official in lace that have admitted they would refuse to certify votes if trump failed in that area. He has judges in his back pocket. Can only wonder what putin has on him.

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Chris Jones

My over the top cents worth. No-one who hasn't lived in rural US (like I have) can possibly understand the MAGA movement and the evil of the satanic entourage that follow Trump. People in the US are not fundamentally 'like us'. They don't have any idea or knowledge of who (or where) we are or the lives we (try to) live. They don't care. It's not 'politics' or money - it's religion. They (half of them) are in the grip of the religious psychology and the emotional impact of the 'Left Behind' Series of books by Tim LaHaye and Jerry B. Jenkins. These (and other) books on the 'End of Days' and 'The Rapture' have immense power and biblical influence on US Christian fundamentalists and MAGA. All this compounded by Fox News and musk-based social media. Truly, we are in the 'Time of Tribulation'! People in Cymru have NO IDEA of... what is COMING! Should Starmer and the Lafur government 'work with' a Trump presidency? Well you should know the (expletive) answer to that.

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Mab Meirion

All whipped up into 250mph winds, did you see what the did to the Earth... Sat there with Melanie all those years ago...

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Rob

I've lived in the US Midwest so I do understand where your coming from. At the time (late 90s/early 2000s) whatever Fox News, Sean Hannity, Bill O'Reilly or Rush Limbaugh said was the gospel truth. You had grown adults convinced that the theory of evolution was propaganda, and that free healthcare was a form of communism. Its far worse now, Limbaugh's death with Alex Jones who is far worse and Tucker Carlson who spouts pro-Russia propaganda, as their new 'reliable' news source. Thankfully the UK doesn't have religious nutters like you get in the Bible Belt, but the rise in opinionated social media platforms and GB News will likely polarize the UK down a similar path.

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Rob

Trump withdrew from the INF treaty that Reagan and Gorbachev signed in the 80s that compelled both countries to reduce their nuclear stockpile. Trump also moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Deal, then nearly started a war with them when they assassinated one of their generals, and of course called Putin a genius for invading Ukraine. Therefore I am very skeptical that Trump will resort to isolationism if he comes back to power, if anything he will escalate the conflict in the Middle East even further and try to start a war with Iran.

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Gareth

With a large amount of former Trump appointed Gov, military and legal officials, now saying he is either unfit for office, opposing his re election, and in some cases endorsing his opponent, Kamala Harris, I would have thought the alarm bells would be ringing for a lot of American voters, but as with a certain Mr Hitler, with his foorsoldiers on the streets ( proud boys etc), and the press and large sections of the media on his side, this vote could go either way. Personally I hope he loses.

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Julian Norman

Packing the Govt. with Trump devotees seems similar to this Labour Govt. with their cronyism. Perhaps Trump got the idea when he met Starmer.

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Jeff

Trump was at this 2016, Starmer only just got on the opposition front bench at that time. So, no prize biscuit here. If you want a UK comparison, look to Boris Johnson, right out the gop play book.

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Gareth

Trump claims to be a successful businessman, self made, but started with cash from his father. Trump vodka failed, Trump airlines failed, Trump steaks failed, Trump university failed, and paid millions out in compensation. 6 times between 1991 and 2009 Trump hotel and casino businesses have declared bankruptcy. He claims to have been in, and is in great health, passing all medicals with flying colours, except the most important one, the Army medical he failed for Vietnam service, cheated on his first wife, with his second, cheated on a pregnant wife with a porn star, called captured American war veterans " suckers and losers" . He has a devoted following, go figure, as they say state side.

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Annibendod

A dark side to humanity has been cultivated in both the US and the UK for some time. A gamut of false narratives and grievance of varying extremes has been washed down with celebrity garbage. The Right Wing always does this. Whip up a mob and cream off their votes. The corporate centrists can't fight it off and the Left are too busy engaging in Sino-Russo apologetics apparently swayed by the mistaken belief that those two states are somehow benign socialist internationalist players whose attempts at a "multi-polar world" will bring us all to some sunlight uplands. Depressing.

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Rob

Sorry but Gareth is spot on (he should of added about what he said to John McCain being captured as well), he was born with a spoon in his mouth, just because your rich doesn't make you a genius, do you really think he understands or even cares to understand what ordinary people think? He appeals to the misinformed and disillusioned (I know as I have lived there). I'm not saying that the Democrats are any better but Trump certainly is not the answer, and if definitely a threat to democracy who should have been disqualified from ever running from office again after January 6th, 2021. There is a lot about the left wing that I dislike, but give me a woke President over a Putinesque one any day!!

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Alun

There is no good outcome here, both liars with dark sides.

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Gareth

Yes, I am surprised he could be re elected, regardless of money, he is a convicted sex offender, that alone should tell the electorate of his character, not one I would want leading our country , but it seems like many are happy to overlook this and sing his praises.

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includemeout

It's curious how Trump's supporters and opponents are united in believing that his second term would be very different to his first. Yes, his hangers-on have more of a plan this time, but should they take power, they will still have to deal with an incompetent and increasingly senile Chief Executive, and a political system perfectly designed to prevent any government from getting anything done, whether good or bad. Project 2025, if implemented, would certainly make the US a darker place; but though you wouldn't know it from UK media reporting, matters of US domestic politics are of limited relevance to the rest of the world. US foreign policy is of huge significance, but that will continue to be made by the military-industrial complex regardless of who wins. The one thing that would disrupt US foreign policy would be a disputed result followed by a civil war, which in my view would be the best possible outcome, not for Americans but certainly for the rest of us. As long as they're preoccupied with their own problems, we might get some much-needed peace.  One thing that won't happen is the centre making common cause with the left to resist Trump. Centrist strategy, such as it is, will remain the same: keep flapping around to give the impression of activity, and hope that something (probably something or other to do with AI) comes along to save them before the whole thing collapses completely.

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Rob

Quote "The one thing that would disrupt US foreign policy would be a disputed result followed by a civil war, which in my view would be the best possible outcome, not for Americans but certainly for the rest of us." A civil war wouldn't be good for anyone. The divisions it would cause, not just within the US but internationally as well plus the enormous loss of life. Do you not have any family or friends in the US? Granted US foreign policy has got to answer for, but thats not the fault of its citizens. The foreign policies of China and Russia are not exactly innocent either, would they not see a US civil war as an opportunity to exert their influence over others? As much as the United States is guilty of a lot of things, and deteste their arrogance I would rather have them at the top of the international hierarchy than China or Russia. Political opponents and journalists are not imprisoned or killed in mysterious circumstances for criticising Joe Biden.

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Padi Phillips

But it's quite conceivable that political opponents and journalists hostile, or indeed anyone else who criticises Trump and his supporters under a Trump presidency will end up dead or imprisoned. Trump is on a par with Putin and Xi Jinping, and probably as vindictive as Kim Jong Un.

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John Ellis

A Trump win in the USA could conceivably render NATO pretty much obsolete, at least in the form that we've effectively been accustomed to it over the last seventy-odd years. Europe would then need to look much more to its own defence in the context of a more isolationist USA. However, Brexit in the UK, the continuing political success of Fidesz in Hungary and recent political trends in Slovakia - plus one or two other political shifts as well - suggest that we're not exactly in a positive position to do that. Putin may think that his prospects in the longer term might be quite encouraging.

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Jeff

The look on Trumps face at the Helsinki conference after a private chat with Putin should say it all. Did putin show him that tape?

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John Ellis

At the age of 79, my memory now goes back rather a long way, and in consequence I can say with absolute certainty that the British Conservative party now bears scant resemblance to the mainstream of the Tory party when Harold Macmillan was prime minister, and that the US Republican party now is entirely unrecognizable in terms of what it was when Dwight D. Eisenhower was their president.

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Jeff

Looks like the billionaire owners of the LA times and Washington Post have stopped their editorial staff endorsing Harris. Wonder why. Staff are walking, people are cancelling subs.

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