Vote efficiency or failed democracy?

Gwern Gwynfil

Superficially our brave new world of Labour political hegemony across England, Scotland and Wales looks wonderful for Keir Starmer and the Labour faithful.

Labour has ‘won’ this election on the back of a visibly broken and inadequate first past the post (FPTP) voting model, designed for a two-party system in a different century, clearly unfit for purpose in the new multi party reality.

If we scratch the surface, we can see that this new Labour dominance is no more than a paper palace. Let’s dive into the statistics!

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Worrying Numbers?

Starmer’s Labour party has secured a huge majority in government. For five years they have the scope and power to do anything they choose. The opportunity is there for them to be bold, radical and transformative. An opportunity handed to them on the back of an utterly anodyne platform by a small minority of the electorate.

To put this in perspective for you, when Jeremy Corbyn lost the 2017 election on his radical left wing platform, the Labour party secured 12,877,918 votes for 262 seats (the Tories bagged 317 seats with around 750,000 more votes).

This year Starmer’s Labour received fewer than 10 million votes. Yes, turnout was poor but even when we take this into consideration there is no escaping the reality that Labour have secured two of every three seats in Parliament with only one of every three votes cast.

In terms of the total registered electorate, barely one in five voters gave their support to Labour. This is not a resounding endorsement.

Take some time to absorb this. We have a majority government in Westminster with enormous power, placed there by 20% of eligible voters.

This is both undemocratic and extremely dangerous in a state which has far too few constitutional checks and balances, where ‘sovereignty’ resides absolutely in the Palace of Westminster.

In Wales, Labour wiped out the Tories and have 27 of the 32 residual seats (cut from 40 by boundary commission changes). The reality is not as rosy as it appears for them.

Labour support in Wales has actually fallen dramatically. Fewer votes, a much lower vote share and a harbinger of challenges ahead when the Senedd elections in 2026 arrive mid term for a UK Labour government who seem startlingly averse to rewarding Wales for their eternal Labour loyalty.

Winners and Spankings

Whilst the Tories certainly got spanked in this election (well deserved after the chaos and confusion of the last Parliament), at first glance their sister party Reform did very well.

In Wales the combined Tory and Reform vote share was only 2% lower than Labour’s – this is less than 25,000 votes in total. For avid data heads it’s worth noting that in many ways Reform actually underperformed relative to results for UKIP, their ancestor party, in 2015 – this time around Reform increased their number of votes by a few percentage points, adding 120,000 to the UKIP tally of 3.8 million nine years ago. Nothing new to see here.

The Greens on the other hand are most definitely big winners in 2024. In Wales four times as many voters put their cross in the Green Party box in spite of the reduced turnout. This kind of momentum will almost certainly mean that the Senedd will have its first Green MSs come 2026.

Plaid Cymru can also be considered winners in Wales having secured their best ever Westminster election result. Perhaps more importantly, their still shiny new leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, was undoubtedly the standout campaigner in the Welsh general election campaign (as Ed Davey was for the Liberal Democrats across the border).

With Labour’s underlying performance showing them going backwards whilst Plaid surges it is not outside the realms of possibility that Plaid could even become the largest grouping in the Senedd in 2026.

They will need to continue to improve their campaign machine, taking advantage of stand out efforts from effective Young Turks like Kiera Marshall and Wil Rees (both of whom ran excellent local campaigns in Cardiff West and Pontypridd respectively) to revitalise their grass roots structures and create a new unity of purpose across the party machine.

Are the Liberals Back?

In simple terms, no, no they are not.

Despite their claim that winning the seat of Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe ‘demonstrates that the Liberal Democrats are back on the up in Wales as the party looks to make gains ahead of the 2026 elections’.

The reality is bleak for the Liberals in Wales. Median forecasts would suggest that the likeliest outcome in 2026 Senedd elections is for Jane Dodds to retain her seat with the prospect of adding more seats currently very slim. This is partly due to the peculiarities of the D’Hondt voting system and the relatively high threshold it imposes on smaller parties before they can win seats.

Voting systems aside, the truth is that the Liberal Democrats in Wales have allowed themselves to slip into irrelevance and lack the vision (and ambition?) to reinvent themselves in ways which can put them back at the heart of Welsh politics.

Whilst it is less than 25 years since the Deputy First Minister of Wales was a Welsh Liberal Democrat, it is very hard indeed to see them regaining any influence or relevance if they continue on their current path.

Will they keep their heads firmly buried in the sand, fooling themselves that their one MP means they are back in the game? Indications are that yes, yes they will.

Our European Parliament

It is very early to be making predictions but by the end of 2026 it seems likely that the Senedd in Wales will be very much European in its make up. A blend of parties across the political spectrum. Hopefully the expansion to 96 members will help to accommodate the disruptive right and whatever presence Reform may have (if at all) will be outweighed by positive co-operation and potentially coalition between parties of the centre and centre left.

It is highly likely that there will be six parties in the Senedd, Labour, Tories, Plaid, Liberals, Greens and Reform.

A shame that it will remain a shadow government at the mercy of Westminster and the deep reluctance of the Welsh Labour MPs to invest it with greater power and authority. At times the antipathy of the Welsh Labour Westminster Parliamentary party towards devolution is palpable.

Perhaps 2026 will be the first step towards breaking the Labour umbilical in Wales – a more diverse Senedd with a diminished Labour presence. By 2030 we may even have a Senedd which by its very composition shouts loudly for Welsh interest and demands far more for the people of Wales.

Papering over the Cracks

Whatever the future brings it is certain that ‘Change Labour’s’ apparent dominance across Great Britain is superficial.

The tensions and shifting attitudes beneath that umbrella will not be going away. The cracks in the Union may well be slightly obscured but it remains brittle, all the more so as England is beginning its journey towards understanding that its identity too is subsumed within this aging imperial construct.

Interesting times ahead.