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Opinion

The great rethink and the opportunity for progressives

By Mark Mansfield
Donald Trump. Photo Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

Jonathan Edwards

Nearly 30 years ago, during my time at the University of Aberystwyth, I studied US foreign politics in some detail.

Even then, academics and analysts were talking about how the attention of the US would increasingly move from Europe to the Indo Pacific. The Soviet Union had been defeated, and the focus was moving to the emerging challenge of China in particular.

When trying to understand the Trumpian world view, I think this is a good place to start. The loss of status as the world's most powerful economy would be a major blow to American prestige. China is the only other country in the same ballpark as the US.

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IMF

The International Monetary Fund’s most recent analysis places nominal US GDP at $30 trillion. China is in second place at $19 trillion. In third place is Germany at $4.92 trillion dollars. The UK is ranked sixth at $3.73 trillion. The EU’s nominal GDP is $20.2 trillion.

Strategically the rapprochement with Russia serves several purposes for the MAGA (Make America Great Again) crew especially as Russia is no threat to the US’s economic status. It is not even in the top 10.

Firstly, in strategic terms, splitting the Sino-Russian pact is an imperative. The response to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia has seen closer collaboration with China, which has enabled Putin to evade the impact of Western sanctions.

I held a similar opinion when considering the response to Russian aggression, but from the other way around. At a time when the Tory right was agitating for hostile relations with China, it was my view that if Europe wanted to isolate the Putin regime, then we had to hold our noses when it came to China.

Secondly, a war on the European continent that is sucking up US military and financial resources is, from a MAGA perspective, a distraction. Thirdly, the battle between China and the US is very much a race for precious metals and minerals, of which Ukraine has an abundance. The US wants to be able to access those resources one way or another.

Fourthly, both the US and Russia are oil and gas exporters; they have a mutual interest in preserving energy systems based on fossil fuels.

Fifthly, if following the sell out on the future of Ukraine we are left with an effective security border stretching from the Baltic to the Black Sea, it would keep both Russia and Europe occupied.

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Challenger

As far as the Trump world view goes that would be a bonus, as he views Europe as a challenger.

There are probably a whole host of other reasons which explain the thinking of the US administration.

The key point we must wake up to quickly in Europe is that the transatlantic partnership between the US and our continent as we understand it is gone.

How refreshing it was to listen to the new likely German Chancellor Friedrich Merz say it as it is. In a post-election debate he said the US is indifferent to the fate of Europe. The essence of his words was that we didn’t have the luxury of waiting for a new administration in Washington in 2029.

It appears to me that Trump has merely accelerated the way US foreign policy was going anyway; there is not going to be any turning back of the clock. There was also an element of domestic politics to his statement due to the love-in between the far right AfD, Germany’s second party after the election this week, and Trump.

Skewer

History is going to skewer the British right over the fallacy of Brexit.

When Putin marched into the Crimea, British politics, due to complete malfunction within the governing Tory party, was consumed by bogus enemies in Brussels. Following Brexit, in what can only be described as delusion, Global Britain pivoted to the Indo Pacific at a time when Putin was eyeing up the rest of Ukraine.

The Conservatives in pursuing this course of action have not pacified the most extreme fringes of the British right. They have acted as a gateway drug, legitimising Putin and Trump sympathisers in the shape of Reform which looks as if it is about to engulf the Tories.

Perhaps I am being too optimistic, but surely as events unfold the electorate will engage in a great rethink which may dismantle the old Brexit divides.

I think we can safely assume that most people who voted to leave the EU didn’t do so on the back of wanting to promote Russian imperial expansionism in a context where the US is washing its hands.

I understand the reluctance of the Labour leadership to re-open old Brexit wounds, but if Keir Starmer wants to avoid being similarly damned by history, he needs to react to the position the UK now finds itself in.

The US is no longer a reliable partner: when the British Government talks about being a bridge between the US and Europe it is kidding itself of its own importance.

Merz understands reality. He also understands how vulnerable the far right in his country is to their pro Putin and pro Trump world view. The question is, does Prime Minister Starmer also get it?

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-24

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19 comments

Mab Meirion

The Fat Shanks Effect... I switched to Hanes Cymru after the first year of InterPol, I wanted to enjoy my time in Aber...

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Steve D.

I agree. Trump wasn't the start of the US' inward look - it just accelerated it. The UK, and certainly an independent Cymru, needs to look east. Prosperity and security in closer and closer relations with other European countries. In the future there will be an economic and probably military war between the US and China, (the cause - as the article states, the Americans will not like playing second fiddle to a stronger China), Europe must be able to stand on its own two feet or get crushed and used in the ensuing conflict.

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Y Cymro

US politics is as confusing as American Football. You can buy your representative if you've got enough money. Democracy , don't just love it. And even if you aspire to become president must be a multi-millionaire, because the idea Mr & Mrs Jones living in a trailer on Turnip Ridge, Idaho, can run and become commander in Chief is like finding Donald Trump's backbone. And if I hear another MAGA Trump supporter quote democracy & freedom with their dire bloody foreign policy record around the world, I myself will have the liberty and shove their opinion so far down their throat it'll poke out of the lips they never kiss with. I'll give them shock & awe!

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TheWoodForTheTrees

I can guarantee that Brexit voters didn't even consider Russia when they voted for the biggest act of national self harm ever. I don't believe that Brexit voters thought too much about anything other than wanting less black or brown faces in the queue at Lidl. The fact that those faces don't even come from Europe, did not apparently dawn on them. That's what right wing issue mash up did to the lazy thinking masses. A rethink would involve a first think and I don't believe there was one.

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Jeff

Brexit was a massive win for putin. Gotta wonder how that happened in full. Chief cheer leaders in the UK etc.......

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Fi yn unig

My first think was during the lead up to the Brexit vote when Russian jets were flying around the east and south coasts of England which made me certain that the UK electorate, having seen this, could not possibly be so stupid as to separate us off from the security we enjoyed from being part of a strong block to leave us isolated and vulnerable. However … DER!

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Jeff

Places like the BBC and other press and vote no did no favours. Beeb had to other it. You had world leading experts saying this is bad, many, and the press would wheel out minford or farridge to counter the world leading experts. All those experts have now been shown to be correct. But I think too many people are trying to find too deep a reason for the US at the moment, you have a bully and a liar and cheat in the Whitehouse, not Spock playing 3D chess.

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In reply to Jeff

Mab Meirion

Andrew Neil and the BBC news dept had an agenda...

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In reply to Mab Meirion

Jeff

BBC are politically corrupted at the top and got too deep into othering. This is a long watch but worth every minute. Emily Maitlis. It really shines a light, starts with Trump reign part 1. It is the well respected MacTaggart talk. https://news.sky.com/video/watch-emily-maitlis-deliver-the-mactaggart-memorial-lecture-at-the-edinburgh-tv-festival-12680765

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Mab Meirion

For the elderly charity shop volunteer it was an act of revenge for 1974... and so on, what a dark day, what an evil done to the gullible... 'Cuckooing' on a grand scale and the theft of billions... Their faces should be on hoardings not hidden in the Lords... Nickers to that...

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Brychan

It is the people of Ukraine that decided and quite rightly so to take charge of their own destiny. Also, anyone who says Nato has an 'eastward expansion' does not understand what Nato is. A country can only join Nato by a democratic will of the people. The latest members to join was initiated by Sveriges Riksdag and Suomen Eduskunta. It was their own self determination and such an option should not be denied to Ukraine nor vetoed by external powers.

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Rob Pountney

Quisling... I have never read such a pile of ahistorical BS... I'm going to repost a bit of it with the names changed to make my point... "Wales has long been a geopolitical blancmange—a wobbly creation moulded by outside forces. Its history is a tug-of-war between East and West, with regions like Clwyd and Powys serving as the rope. Monmouth, for instance, is ethnically, linguistically, and emotionally English, yet it ended up in Wales thanks to 20th century map-doodling. Flint, too, has deep ties to Russia. These regions aren’t anomalies; they’re symptoms of a broader tension that has simmered for centuries."... What an absolute joke... I might add that long before the first Russian invasion of 2014 most Russian speaking Ukranians saw themselves as exactly that, next you'll be telling me that PPL in Wales who speak English are 'linguistically & emotionally English'... Sidelining Russian speakers? FFS most of the governments of Ukraine were run BY Russian speakers, it is the Russian war that has destroyed Russian as a Lingua Franca. Cuban Missile crisis? It wasn't f**king last week it was generations ago, I don't expect you know how that was resolved anyway (which was by a mutual pullback of missiles USSR in Cuba & US in Turkey), NI? there has been for decades a mechanism in place that ensures that NI citizens should have the right to self determination... Why don't you highlight some of the rather less old issues that don't paint Russia as an innocent victim, Like the failed imperial war in Afghanistan, carpet bombing it's own (ethnic minority) citizens & the entire city of Grozny, the invasion of Georgia, and the first Ukrainian invasion... "it’s time to drop the theatrics, acknowledge the complexities, and focus on solutions that don’t involve turning Eastern Europe into a perpetual war zone. Because, frankly, the world has enough problems without adding another endless conflict to the list." So, abandoning the Ukrainians would stop the war in E Europe would it? who the hell are you trying to kid? (yourself presumably), try talling that to the Georgians & Moldovans, or are you going to tell me they'd all rather be Russians as well, on yer bike, point it east, ride to Moscow, join their army and see what life is like for ACTUAL Russians, nasty, short, and brutal, much like it has been for most of their sad history...

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Johnny

So does your rant think that Starmer and Macron can save the fledgling European Union. I'm glad that the people of Cymru had the good sense to vote to get out of it. Donald Trump has quite rightly told Europe that you are on your if you want to antagonise Russia. Even Europe is like headless chickens over this with Viktor Orban , Georgia Meloni and even Socialist Espana wanting nothing to do with this proxy war. Trump has already got a return on Bidens $350 billion dollar investment with the minerals deal with Ukraine.Cant see 2 Tier Keir getting anything after allowing our OAPs to freeze this winter with the winter fuel allowance being syphoned off to Zelensky for goodness knows what. Don't ridicule the Soviet Union for it's Afghanistan failure when UK armed forces had their backsides kicked 3 times in Afghanistan. Some of the Russophobic words used by UK politicians is like something out of The Monster Ravin Looney Party Manifesto. Little Ben Wallace wanting revenge for the Charge of The Light Brigade with an army that wouldn't even fit into the Principality Stadium. If you are so keen to poke the Russian Bear are you going to put on your tin hat for Starmer or are you wanting other people's sons and daughters to do it for you for a proposed conflict that even Eastern European Nations boarding Ukraine don't want. Donald is MAGA while Europe is fractured.Dont get upset when Reform do well in the Senedd and before people start this Racist, Fascist nonsense,That's what Trump got elected because people the world over are fed up of Liberal Middle Class Metropolitan Elite politicians who are clueless when it comes to connecting with people. Furthermore I'm glad that we have leaders like Nick Tenconi of UKIP who are not afraid to go out into the streets to talk to people and tell the media the truth about what's really happening in the real world.

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Rob

Quote: Don’t ridicule the Soviet Union for it’s Afghanistan failure when UK armed forces had their backsides kicked 3 times in Afghanistan. Some of the Russophobic words used by UK politicians is like something out of The Monster Ravin Looney Party Manifesto No I criticise both the UK and the Soviet Union for invading Afghanistan. Two wrongs do not make a right. Criticising Russia is Russophobic is it?. There are plenty of Russians who oppose Putin and the invasion. This is no different than claiming that opponents of Israel are being anti-Semitic.

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Bertie

That's all true but has always been true. Ever since it was invented to administer an empire, Whitehall has been a crèche for the ruling elite to dump their most hopeless progeny when they couldn't real "status" jobs as governors, lawyers, surgeons or more recently hedge fund managers. No-one ever said to friends over canapes and champers in the hunting lodge "we secretly hope little Johnny will one day be a senior beancounter in the tax office". But they did say "Winston, little Johnny is so useless he's still having crayons surgically removed at 18. Any chance you could do an old boys favour and get him into a senior beancounters role in the Treasury?"

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Jeff

Watch the vid. frog face was constantly on QT and other media as the "other side". His qualification are zero in this and they would pit people like him against orders of magnitude greater numbers of people that have proven st nige knew three parts of sod all. But the TV shows have 2 or 3 seats on the stage so nige could spout his bile with next to no context on the experience and expertise that said he was wrong.

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Rob

As a Welshman living in the 21st century I played no part in the historical crimes of the British Empire, if I had it my way Tony Blair would be in the Hague, and Wales would be free to chose its own path. So I reserve the right condemn Russia's aggression and support Ukraine's right to defend its territory without being called a hypocrite. It is more hypocritical for one to condemn western aggression and then resort to whataboutisms or make excuses when other states do the same. Anyone who is truly opposed to war must condemn all forms of military aggression and imperialism irrespective of who commits it. History is there so that we learn from our mistakes and ensure that it is not repeated. We can equally condemn Western imperialism and Russian Imperialism, that is not mutually exclusive.

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Jeff

I just watched a hostile state denigrate what should be a friend by what is now undoubtably a putin stooge in the Whitehouse. I am now seeing the UK is pretty much where putin wants it. Marginalised, on the shelf. We are struggling to keep up with trump (though people have warned what he is unlike reform's farage that crawled so far up him he can polish the back of 47's teeth) and we are outside the EU. This is very dangerous. Yet we have the reform and tory party all signing trumps praises as our friend. There is only on direction now for the UK and that is the only democracies that stand with Ukraine in this part of the world, and that is the EU. The outcome of brexit is a failure on any level the proponents are shown for what they are. Charlatans. Followers are basically a cult. And really have to wonder what influence was pushed to the leave from the likes of putin because he is the only winner here. That was demonstrated yesterday when Trump and Vance imploded with stupidity.

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Linda Jones

Spot on

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