Running out of steam - how Labour failed with its rail promises

Carrie Harper

Sometimes in life we need to receive the same message in a multitude of ways before the cold hard reality actually sets in.

We’ve been had, duped, hoodwinked. We’ve unwittingly put our faith in something that was never grounded in reality and, as the rose-tinted glasses finally start to crack, the depressing truth can be a bitter pill to swallow.

But it’s a necessary dose of "wake up and smell the coffee".

Our relationship with Westminster is a prime example of political gaslighting. The recent UK Labour Spending Review has yet again shone a spotlight on the chronic underfunding of Welsh rail but it’s also revealing something much more fundamental: Wales does not matter to London-based political parties.

And yes, I mean all of them.

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Side-eye

It shouldn’t be a surprise that organisations with HQs based in the country next door don’t make our needs a priority but it’s a basic truth that has taken a long time to embed itself in the minds of the Welsh public. However, a collective Welsh side-eye is currently fixing itself firmly on Keir Starmer and London Labour.

Right now the Labour machine is in full spin, waxing lyrical about an ‘historic’ boost to rail funding in Wales and describing the UK Chancellor's announcement of £445m over 10 years as a ‘win’. But there’s an air of twitchy bum about the PR spin, which tellingly began in advance of the official announcement.

The Fiscal Analysis, part of the Wales Governance Centre, has issued a damning verdict on Labours claims.

The reality is that compared to the current spending commitment of the UK Government to rail enhancement projects in England, Wales will get nowhere near our fair share. They state: “Any suggestion that this funding in any way compensates Wales for the loss incurred from HS2 is obviously unsustainable. It does not substantially change the overall picture of underfunding of Welsh rail Infrastructure”.

It’s a politely worded rejection of Labour's self-described win. To add insult to injury, a quick comparison of the funding allocations lays bare the reality of Eluned Morgan's so-called partnership of power between Labour in London and Cardiff.

With Manchester receiving FIVE times as much funding as Wales with a smaller population, they’re fooling no one.

Greater Manchester - £2.5 billion
West Midlands - £2.4 billion
West Yorkshire - £2.1 billion
East Midlands - £2 billion
South Yorkshire - £1.5 billion
Wales - £0.4 billion

The truth is that £445 million over a decade is drop in the ocean compared to the billions Wales is owed from HS2 and decades of underinvestment. Until it got into power, Labour bemoaned the fact that Wales had:

11% of UK rail tracks
5% of the UK population
1% of UK rail infrastructure spending.

They've now gone quiet on that fundamental inequality.

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Smoke and mirrors

This latest smoke and mirrors attempt from Labour on rail funding follows hot on the heels of the recent scandal of Welsh taxpayers subsidising a rail link between Oxford and Cambridge.

The East-West rail project, bizarrely reclassified by Labour as an ‘England and Wales’ scheme in the past year when it was previously (rightly) an English-only project, sees Wales losing out on an estimated £360 million.

Scotland and Northern Ireland justifiably receive a "Barnett consequential"* as they did for HS2 whilst yet again Wales loses out, despite not one inch of track being laid here.

It’s a blatant injustice.

The embarrassment over this latest blunder may also explain some of the voodoo economics on the Spending Review figures. The amount allocated to Wales as part of the spending review period of 4 years is actually £300m, with an additional £145m added in over 10 years. Did Labour simply want to announce a figure higher than the £360m loss to Wales over the Oxford to Cambridge link to try and save face?

There are certainly more questions than answers at this stage, with some also highlighting that buried in the stats is the fact that the Welsh Labour Government has actually received a -0.9% squeeze in their capital budget when compared to the small boost in funding for SNP led Scotland of +0.3% and +0.7% to the Sinn Fein led Northern Ireland Executive.

That's unsurprisingly not a point they're including in the current spin.

Labour know the game’s up. They know because recent polling shows the Labour vote collapsing in Wales whilst Plaid Cymru and Reform UK surge.

Two successive polls have now shown a clear lead for Plaid Cymru, now leading Labour by a substantial 14%. Labour voters have finally woken up to Labour's misrule in both Cardiff and London and it seems the writing is on the wall.

Seismic shake up

The political landscape in Wales is set for a seismic shake up at next year's Senedd election and you can sense Labour's desperation as they scan the horizon.

Perhaps that explains Keir Starmer snarky attack on Plaid Cymru's Liz Savile-Roberts (and subsequent apology); perhaps that explains Mark Drakeford's petulant attack on Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth in the Senedd yesterday; perhaps that explains the First Minister's childish jibes every week.

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They're rattled by a party that is ready to take the reins and replace them.

This brings me back to the fundamental issue - being shafted on rail funding is just the latest example of the unfairness baked into the Westminster system when it comes to Cymru.

There is a long line of examples stretching back as far as the eye can see that paint the same picture over and over again. Whether it’s control over our water and resources, a fit-for-purpose devolution settlement, rail funding, the Crown Estate, austerity, child poverty levels, welfare cuts to the most vulnerable, the bedroom tax, you name it, we’re never the priority.

We are not a priority because all London-based parties have a fundamental conflict of interest when it comes to Wales and we see this play out whichever party is in the driving seat in London. Test this yourself - whether it's Labour, the Tories or Reform, look at how they vote on Welsh issues, look at how they’ve voted historically.

Indifference

They don’t care and the price of their indifference is counted not only in pounds but in people. It’s counted in the unrealised potential of our communities, it’s counted in the appalling poverty levels across our country and I hope in May next year it will be counted in votes as the people of Wales deliver a verdict that’s been a very long time coming.

But in the dawning of this reality, as that message finally locks into place in the Welsh consciousness, it’s important to point people to the primary root cause of the problem and not the periphery. Our issue is simply this, we will never be a priority for Westminster-based parties and a Westminster system that doesn’t serve our needs.

To put it bluntly, the whole house of cards is designed by another country, for another country and we can't thrive under such a limiting system. It's no wonder it's not working.

We have languished behind because of a misplaced faith in those we put our trust in, they’ve let us down and it’s a painful lesson. But just because that’s how it’s been, doesn’t mean that’s how it’s going to be moving forward. All we need is the collective self belief in our innate ability to solve our own problems and the willingness to look beyond what we know and choose a new vision over the comfort of what’s familiar.

We can take the first step on that journey in a year's time, by ditching London-based parties and putting our faith in Plaid Cymru, the party of Wales.

Cllr Carrie Harper is a Plaid Cymru Senedd Election candidate for Fflint Wrecsam