Reform UK and the blank canvass

Desmond Clifford       

Much attention has been paid to the 25% support recorded for Reform UK at a recent opinion poll, second only to Plaid Cymru on 30%. Labour and Conservative, currently the government and official opposition in the Senedd, languish in third and fourth places.

Strange days.

“Rejectionism” is the mood of the moment: a plague on all their houses!

The times are confusing: Trump unchained, angry Putin, rising China, Brexit, small-boats, economic malaise, struggling public services, an arms race, weakening international order, environmental degradation.

Over a really short period, technology has changed how we live, work, receive news and opinion and, increasingly, how we think. There’s more to come. AI has barely even begun. The world is turned upside down.

It’s hard not to feel ill-at-ease. Established politics seems slow, lumbering and off the pace.

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Defunct

In 2025 the political parties offer a twentieth century world view. While the world changes fast, decision-makers are glued to the past, their arguments defunct and from a different age.

Senedd proceedings often channel a 1980s students union. Westminster is no better. Small wonder people are looking elsewhere.

Parties untainted by the regular and established exercise of power have an inbuilt advantage in times of alienation.

Plaid Cymru is not much sullied by governmental track record while Reform UK, the upstart, is chief beneficiary of society’s angst.

From a standing start Reform has zoomed to 25% support - without a Welsh leader, without candidates and without policies.

Reform’s progress is not in spite of the policy vacuum, but because of it.

I’ll come back to Nigel Farage, but Reform’s appeal is the blank canvass. For now, supporters can paint onto it whatever they want.

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Immigration

Although it’s perceived as a right-leaning party, it carries little ideological baggage. It takes a sharp position on immigration and used this issue to bring itself to prominence, even in those parts of Britain – including most of Wales – where immigration has little impact. Its “anti-woke” position appeals where people feel they’ve been lectured at just a little too much.

The perception of right-leaning positions is challenged on some fiscal matters.

In order to embarrass Labour – really not difficult these days - Reform supports scrapping the two-child limit on benefit payments and reinstating the pensioners winter fuel allowance. It pledges to raise the personal tax allowance to £20,000, nearly 80% up from its current level. It proposes abolishing inheritance tax altogether, appealing to farmers especially but others too.

Reform recently fought English local elections and a couple of by-elections, one to Westminster (which they won) and one to the Scottish Parliament. They made policy on the hoof but, from here on will need greater discipline. Voters are exasperated by the traditional parties, but they’re not fools. People will be watching carefully those authorities and mayoralties controlled by Reform to see how they measure up.

After the protest phase, voters will want plausible policies and candidates in whom they can have confidence. Reform’s expensive promises can only be paid for with major cuts elsewhere.

Will the protest vote survive the prospect of decimated public services?

If Reform proposes putting the NHS up for grabs, for example, they will need a very plausible alternative. In the real world, it’s hard to see what that looks like.

Welsh leader

The next scheduled opportunity for Reform is our election in May next year. They will need a Welsh leader – their candidate for First Minister - as well as Senedd candidates and a policy manifesto.

At present, Reform’s communications in Wales are led by Llyr Powell who seems to speak competently and plausibly in both Welsh and English.

Candidate selection is a challenge for every party, but especially Reform. As a new movement, it doesn’t have track record and proven service to rely on. This leaves it particularly vulnerable to the loons and loners drawn to politics like moths to a flame.

Its predecessor UKip suffered on that account, and a reprise of that gang in the Senedd won’t do Reform many favours in the long run. They will be better off with clean skins, younger clever people with something to say about Wales.

They would be ill-advised to advance an abolish-the-Senedd platform. The Welsh people have voted by referendum twice for the Senedd; they will expect any potential government to take it seriously and to use its powers to change Wales for the better.

The by-election for the Scottish Parliament’s Hamilton seat was the most interesting of Reform’s recent results. Reform came third with 26% of the vote, not far behind the SNP in second and the Labour winner. Keep in mind that Reform didn’t even contest this seat last time.

Scotland remained resistant to Ukip. Until Hamilton, many wondered whether Reform, with its English nationalist roots, was capable of real progress in Scotland – well, now we know.

It was no great surprise to see Reform do well in places like Clacton, but the Hamilton result suggests it has potential as a UK-wide party. The role of insurgent party in Scotland has hitherto been filled by the SNP but, after 20 years in office, they now suffer the same problem as Welsh Labour in the Senedd: they are the establishment and the owners of current policy outcomes, good and ill.

The role of insurgency party in Scotland, once filled by the SNP, is now vacant - and open to Reform.

Enigma

Back to Nigel Farage.  Yes, he’s an enigma. His niche persona is part Terry Thomas vaudeville, part scheming Dick Dastardly. Yet he is the English public boy schoolboy and city trader who is more at ease in working class communities than the genuinely working class and self-made high-achiever Keir Starmer.

How is Farage remotely relevant to the Valleys or Llanelli?  Yet there he is, ready to scoop up votes.

Farage has been at it a long time and the hat, cigarette and pint give him a clear and relatable image.  What you see, I sense, is largely what you get.

He says what he thinks in an age when lots of politicians simply don’t. When you have a First Minister who wouldn’t condemn cuts to Personal Independence Payments – which everyone knows she must hate – it’s unsurprising people look elsewhere for authenticity.

Farage has no grand plan. He has no proposal for reviving Britain’s sluggish economy or paying for the expensive spending commitments he has made. Presumably he’ll be a frequent visitor to Wales ahead of the election. Voters will expect a detailed understanding of Welsh issues and his proposals for addressing them.

Farage is Reform’s greatest asset and their major problem. Arguably, he has influenced Britain more than any recent prime minister, but the perception persists that Reform is about him and not much else.  Fall-outs are common, reinforcing the idea of a one-man party. Only Richard Tice has so far cut through as an alternate voice. Could Reform survive and thrive without Farage?  It seems doubtful, and there lies its challenge.

Insurgent

Not since the SDP in the early 80s has the established order been challenged by an insurgent. Reform will be a force in the 2026 Welsh election.  First, it needs an effective leader in Wales. Their interest would best be served by someone empathetic, clever, and who identifies strongly with Wales.

They will need to devise policies which challenge the established parties but remain relevant. An “abolish-the-Senedd” stance would be a mistake; it would reduce them to the role of protest group rather than a party aiming to govern. In a serious election voters want to know that you intend using powers to improve their lives, not just to blow up the building.

Opinion polling puts Reform in a good position but doesn’t, currently, offer a route to power.  At 25% they would garner around 23-26 seats in the new 96 member Senedd.

Among their options would be to ally with Conservatives to form a right of centre opposition to the Welsh Government. If their agenda is long term, rather than a pan-flash while Farage remains active, they need to establish credentials and trust.

Is Reform capable of building a broad enough base to challenge for power? They’ve flummoxed the other parties.

Plaid Cymru has its own furrow to plough but both Tories and Labour are panicked.  Do they tack the boat and signal to potential Reform voters, even though they can’t out-flank it on the right?

Or do they remain standfast, show conviction and fidelity to their values and risk missing the gathering wave on the shore?  They genuinely don’t know, and that’s their dilemma.  In that sense, Reform is already winning something.