Mapping out Welsh independence - what would it look like

Excellent article!!!

What people forget that Cymru is a political prisoner of the English crown still. We were invaded in 1283 & annexed in 1535. In fact. We are still an independent country. The only difference is. Gone is Edward 'The Hammer's' iron ring fortification. Our prison isn't made of stone. It has no physical bars. Our prison cell is our own inability to break free the invisible chains that bind us to a false one-sided British union created by England for the benefit of England. And until we wake up from our slumber and realise that once we were the Saudi Arabia of the Northern Hemisphere with our coal , slate & water resource but were violently gang raped by Whitehall leaving our once beautiful landscape scarred & tortured. It's often said by Unionists that we are allegedly part of the 5/6th largest economy in the world. If so why is our interconnectivity third world and we are so impoverished continue still to qualify for EU/Whitehall Structural Funding where London & South East England receives hundreds of billions in infrastructure build at our expense? The question is. Will we ever realise that this false United Kingdom is a burden not a benefit. So it's high time we broke our mental chains and joined the family of independent nations. See, I'd rather be poor in the short-term independent than a prisoner permanently poor in an unequal British Union we've never been part of.

I fear it is the usual rant of the Unionist lobby. It is they who have raised obstacles such as the border, to demonic status, with unsubstantiated unsustainable costs. I don't understand your point about ' hypothetical industries '. There is nothing hypothetical about them, they exist, only needing to be developed. Your comment that the Welsh public are not willing to tolerate economic disruption is almost laughable, when that's such a common factor in their lives. Every time a Minister gets to their feet in Westminster it causes economic disruption to Wales, austerity, tax and benefit changes, extra spending on military or overseas aid. All cause economic disruption in Wales. That's acceptable to Unionists because it's the ' norm' its Westminster making policy'. With regard to your own alternatives, you're going to have to give a bit more evidence of your economic transformation than a throw away statement on housing and planning if it is to stir the unambitious Welsh..

The problem is that both narratives are extremes. One is catastrophe, the other is salvation. The fact is that without concrete proposals and events unfolding, what we have is a mixture of comparisons and conjecture. So much depends on policy decisions that are yet to be made. This is not a reason for or against Welsh Statehood. I've tried for some time to make the case on more assured footing. The matter of Welsh Statehood is a matter of democracy and political agency. Our present limited political capacities mean that Wales is yet to enjoy democracy in its fullest measure and we cannot exercise our agency because it has been bound in the collective forum of 650 MP's at Westminster. The record of that Parliament wrt the governance of Wales is negligent. I don't believe it's deliberate in the sense that it's overtly targeted at undermining Wales. I believe that what is deliberate is the cultivation of a core economy and a centralised beaurocracy to control it. We are simply a small, incedental cog in that machine. The purpose of the State according to the UN in the political, economic, cultural and educational development of the society and its citizens. If Wales is to make better progress on those fronts, I belive it will be when we learn to govern ourselves. And that is why we need statehood. There are huge constitutional and political questions to be resolved. What the movement need to do is persuade the electorate of the direction of travel and facilitate the political solutions that take us there. We're closer than we were but not quite there yet.

A logical, unemotional analysis - well done. This shoud be read by as many people as posssible.

A very thoughtful and logical article, a good read and informative

At last! A clear. Concise & easily understandable breakdown of the obvious & compelling truth.

Very disappointed to see that some perfectly reasonable comments have been deleted. Are we not allowing debate Nation?

Great article. Very clear what can be done.

'There are many precedents to assure the Welsh public that a border should be no significant impediment on independence.' Mr Gruffudd might also have cited Belgium and the Netherlands, where the national border has long been practically no more significant than a county boundary is in the UK. And the UK has already accepted something essentially similar in Ireland as the price to be paid to bring 'the Troubles' to an end. 'The reality is that border issues are part of any negotiations that will inevitably come with independence.' True enough as far as it goes, of course; but I think there's a constituency of English public opinion - with at least two current political parties potentially inclined to represent it - which would push for a harder border to punish Wales's 'impertinent decision'!

Waste of time at this stage. Only IF the politis shifts at Westminster then such an exercise would have a point. Now, it's dreamland / nightmare land.

Good to see you tackling the question of the border with England. Unfortunately, you present what you would like to follow independence for Wales as if it were guaranteed to happen. As what you describe is just one scenario out of many, there is no basis for assuming it would happen. Separation from England is not yet on the agenda and it is not possible to predict the circumstances in which it might be. The world is volatile. You are selective in your examples of open borders. There are far more cases in the world in which movement and trade across borders are restricted. And there are no cases of nations separating from modern, stable, prosperous countries with elected governments. The closest example is the ‘Velvet Divorce’ of the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Most cases of separation are traumatic. Your arguments about the disadvantages to England of a less than fully open border are reminiscent of those put forward by Brexit supporters: the EU, we were told, were bound to give the UK a good post-Brexit deal because German manufacturers wanted to sell cars in UK markets. That didn’t work out. You emphasise ‘logic and rationality’ but one of my qualms about all nationalist politics is that identity emotions often squeeze those out. You assume independence would reverse Wales’ economic decline, but make no effort to prove this. You point to energy exports but the gain to Wales could be limited. Renewable sources create few permanent jobs after installation. Cases such as Llanwern Solar Farm, owned by Mayfair-based NextEnergy Capital and selling its output to Anglian Water Services, look like the age-old exploitation of Welsh land. Your faith in the WTO is misplaced and outdated. The world was never ‘flat’ even in the 1990s heyday of neoliberalism and the ‘Washington consensus’, and the trend over the past decade has been away from globalisation. The WTO is a declining force. Countries that want open borders have to negotiate agreements with their neighbours. We do not know how beneficial or onerous the terms of such an agreement between Wales and England would be. In any case, Welsh businesses wishing to sell to England would need to conform to English consumer law, Welsh businesses needing to use sterling would have to follow Bank of England rules. Wales would find that its economic policy was still largely constrained by Westminster, independent or not. There would be advantages in Wales having more control over economic policy but complete freedom over this is not possible in the modern world.

Borders do throw up problems on a spectrum from the bureaucratic (EU-UK) to the apocalyptic (Gaza-Israel). So there is plenty of scope for dark imaginings. When the issue comes up, isn’t the best answer a politician can give: “I/we don’t deal with hypotheticals” and if pressed: “An independent Wales would conduct its external relations on a win-win basis and mutual respect” and about "pride in having a Welsh passport". Referring to your opponents or their supporters concerns as “hysteria” (or name calling) is unlikely to win people over.