Lies, damned lies and the Welsh economy

How much would it cost to become independent?

You can present the public with as much hard evidence, peer reviewed papers and solid accounting data all you want to. The harsh truth is that the majority have been programmed since birth that "Wales poor" " Britain only way" and media sponsored cognitive dissonance will hold steadfastly like an invisible force field of blissful ignorance. Until the propaganda from the failing empire is stopped, meaningful debate will not be allowed.

Great article John, exposing once again the tired old 'on the bones of our arses' narrative that Labour love to pump out. I look forward to reading your book. The Welsh Government should place a copy of it in every classroom and ten copies in every library across Cymru (more chance, I know, of Eluned, Huw ID, Milesey and the gang declaring war on Singapore).

How interesting and for me and all my age who were nurtured through the worst of rationing post war but in a 'land of plenty' of rabbits, pigeons and trout with chickens a veg garden and fruit trees. Nuts and berries in profusion up and down the lanes and a bay teeming with fish... Those were the days in the poorest county in Cymru... With nearly every square inch taken up by military training and airfield construction during the war the money flowing in must have added up...

Where can we read these reports? Any references would be much appreciated as I find this fascinating. My worry is we never see anything detailing figures of private / public sector income and a breakdown of Wales' expenditure. I want an independent Wales more than anything, but what I see and hear is that we are a low wage, big public sector employer. However, we don't seem to spend very much on the country, as can be seen by the fact that it's falling apart, so maybe it could be calculated that we would have a surplus. I think concrete figures need to be put out there for people to discuss, otherwise it makes a push for independence difficult for people to stomach as they see it as too much of a risk.

In the Industrial Revolution and since Wales has been a major source of carbon emmissions what liabilities would lie in the carbon accounts of an independent Wales?

I can not and will not believe, that the English establishment, will allow millions of its own people to live in abject poverty and be homeless, begging on the streets, watch thousand die every month due to lack of funding of the health service, oversee a crumbling infrastructure and economy, while diverting billions towards 3 smaller devolved nations, just to keep them afloat, out of the goodness of their hearts. That they keep us, while running a huge deficit for nothing in return, while they suffer in silence is not credible. This is what we are being lead to believe.

Interesting but how relevant is it to the position that a possible Welsh state would find itself in post separation from England? There is a lot to be said for the argument that Wales has ‘paid its way’ historically, at least as regards our balance with England. [The global balance is less clear given Welsh participation in the profits of Empire.] But we need to think about the present and future rather than the past. Many of the assets that allowed Wales to pay its way have gone, notably industry with Port Talbot the latest example. We would have to manage without those. Nor can we conveniently claim that England would assume all the UK National Debt and other liabilities. The history is important but does not suffice to answer the question about Wales’ relative poverty today.

Wales, is definitely not poor, but it is poorly run, by a clueless Labour party. Unfortunately Wales is going to struggle to afford independence for a long time, with the economy in such a bad way.

Interesting article. We need more intelligent contributions like this to move the debate on from tired rhetoric. I look forward to reading Dr Ball’s future book.

Great stuff that needs to be constantly repeated. One question. If, as we are often reminded, an independent Wales will be required to "shoulder her share of the National Debt", can we not reasonably expect that we are entitled to our share of the National Wealth? And if the response is that the latter is notional, why isn't the former? OK, two questions.

John is quite right in this article. There's a series of similar articles on Bylines Cymru. I've never been convinced by this "Wales is too poor" nonsense. There are two main angles on this which are comparative viewpoints. The first is taking the accusation and the notional UK deficit on spending in/on behalf of Wales at face value. IF Wales is comparitively poorer and requires a UK subsidy then we can only hold those responsible for the governance of the Welsh economy to account. The Welsh economy is currently a component of the broader UK economy which for the most part is the responsibility of the UK Govt -almost exclusively Conservative or Labour this past century. In other words, the very politicians who say Wales is too poor. IF they are correct, THEY are to blame. A great advert for the Union ... NOT! The second is a broader comparison. Wales' GDP/Capita is almost identical to the EU average. It puts us in the top quartile of nations. Too poor my backside. Frankly the too poor argument is total horse manure. Easily refuted. The problem isn't that we can't refute it (a pastime that seems to preoccupy a large number of the indy-confident. The problem is that it is very difficult to paint a picture of how an independent Wales would perform. There are so many constitutional, economic and political variables involved. This leads me, as I've mentioned before, to the conclusion that as important as it is that we can reassure folk on the economy, the biggest tenent of our argument is in fact predicated on our nationhood and democracy. Not in a nationalist or exceptionalist sense but in the sense that the UN frames the purpose of Statehood - that we can best determine our political, economic, cultural and educational development via our democratic mandate. The UK does not satisfactorily allow for this. Now, an indy Wales could explore those areas of development in a multitude of ways. When I was active on social media and supporting YesCymru, I wanted the movement to be a non-partisan shop window for a range of constitutional, political and economic proposals for our Statehood. Sadly, it became a battleground for political partisanship which has consequently undermined the broader movement. We need to present a credible and realiseable range of pathways for our national statehood. Each must be substantial in their vision, well evidenced and tenable. We need to show how we propose to advance our economy, yes, but also how we propose to fit in with our British and European neighbours and beyond. At present, we are far too drawn in by troll arguments and fighting the negatives. We need to switch that and be almost evangelical for the positive future we want to build for Wales. So let's talk about our democratic statehood, our constitutional relationship with the rest of the British Nations, the EU, our currency options, shared institutions, how we will use our new levers of state to progress our development and so on. And not just speculation but plausible, credible options. Engage people on this question - "How do we best build the Welsh Nation?"

Diolch. Moving on, please give an article on the me chanics of independence step by step. At present all I know is a history of referenda- are these necessary? They are like asking permission. Now a key principle of politics and management is it's easier / more effective apologise afterwards than to ask permission before. So what about unilaterally declaring independence? How would that work? I can see it would result in a difficult relationship with Westminster. Ahem. We already have that. Would it be worse, the same, better? How do we rejog taxes so all payers big and small pay Wales not Westminster? Glyndwr famously succeeded for a generation because taxes switch to him. But now we have PAYE auto slicing before we see our pay. The big payers would need persuading to back us. Possible, if they see the economics (with sweeteners) laid out simple, strong and hard. As in, Wales is well-off. I want to see the nuts 'n bolts of how to do it.

There needs to be a new and separate office of finance where all this information i readily available. How can we fix a problem if we don’t know one exists. This should be the next target of Wales I think calling the assembly, parliament and greatly expanding it has greatly improved our credibility. We should have an annual report by and independent body of all our resources and matters relating to this.