How will Wales react to the second party forming the next government

It sounds like the next senedd will be a mix of hodgepodge. Sounds great but most likely nothing will get done in a hung parliament.

The answer is surely a minority Plaid administration (after the Senedd has rejected the Reform nominee) with perhaps a few Lib Dems and Greens as well. The extreme left will have to get real and Plaid dare Welsh Labour not to support their budget and key legislation as a second Senedd election would see them obliterated? Plaid would be mad to form a coalition with the Labour particularly as they will get nothing out of Westminster as stated.

Jonathan Edwards offers one possible speculative future for Welsh politics. Here is another.... Yes, Reform may top the poll. But let’s be clear: winning the largest share of the vote does not necessarily mean you speak for the majority, especially with just 29%. By that logic, 71% of the Welsh electorate actively rejected them. Only those clinging to the outdated first-past-the-post mythology will pretend otherwise. Nigel Farage and his party have spent almost a decade arguing for proportional representation, and with good reason have complained about being disadvantaged by FPTP. If Plaid Cymru and Labour form a government based on a more proportional result, and Reform complains, they will be exposing their own hypocrisy. Yes there is, a deep anti-establishment sentiment in Wales and across the UK. But Plaid Cymru is better placed than Reform to give that frustration a constructive outlet, by framing all Westminster politicians as part of the establishment including Farage himself. While Farage offers disruption without delivery, Plaid can offer vision grounded in Welsh needs, not English political theatre.  Starmer's government does themselves no favours with their overly cautious, often unclear communications strategy leaving many unsure of what the party really stands for. Rhun ap Iorwerth, a former journalist, understands how to communicate with clarity, conviction, and a genuine connection to the Welsh public, therefore they do not have to repeat Labour’s mistakes. The onus is on Labour. If they do obstruct popular Welsh policies in the Senedd including blocking further devolution, they will earn voter anger. If they cooperate then they will share in their success. Either way, Plaid holds the initiative. If Farage does end up in Number 10 in 2029, the cycle is already clear. Look at Boris Johnson. Look at Donald Trump. Populists are better at headlines than hard decisions. His popularity will fade by 2030 and when their promises collapse under scrutiny, Welsh voters will remember who offered serious leadership. Plaid Cymru should not be afraid to govern, even in coalition. The future is not fixed and Plaid has a real chance to shape Wales, not just defend it.

Most people will understand that a majority is needed for government, and Welsh Labour will probably be grateful for a break and not having to defend the indefensible from the London government.

I am not quite so gloomy with regards to a Plaid led gov. However, I totally agree that a "Labour UK government is highly unlikely to concede to any Plaid Cymru demands on powers and funding". That's why Plaid should tone down the constant attacks on underfunding and focus more on their offer to the Welsh public within the financial settlement they will have. At the moment it appears Plaid are saying vote for us and we'll get the money Wales deserves and everything will get better. That is a recipe for disenchanted voters a few years down the line.

We have just under 11 months to convince our people of Wales that our only future for a free Wales is to proceed to electing a majority Plaid Cymru government at the Senedd next May. The UK is a failed country with a failed economy and political system. Wales will never be really free until it becomes an independent nation as defined at the UN. Nigel Farage's Reform group is not a political party in the sense it has no democracy. Reform is a limited company with Nigel Farage the majority owner with executive power. Members of the faction are in an association and have no rights of control of policy making. That resides in Farage's inner circle. If Farage's party ever gets leverage of power they will therefore destroy democracy in Wales and elsewhere and with it Welsh identity will be repressed and even the NHS as a free at the point of need service could well become USA style pay at the point of need with expensive insurance scams. Farage is a great follower of Trump and Putin, none of them have democratic forms of government. There has been a recent survey of voters (by Mark Pack) of intended reform voters in England, most want change and are fed up of the 2 parties taking voters for granted. Many don't really know what Farage's political stand or his political history. Many even think that leaving the EU had no benefit to the economy or their lifestyle. .... And many of the people attracted to voting reform in England would vote 'Liberal Democrat' as their 2nd preference with STV. What does that tell you ? The people want change, so there is everything to work towards Plaid Cymru can win this next Senedd election. We are the effectively the liberals in Wales; we therefore, can only trust, as always, The Welsh liberal democrats and the Green party in coalition with our future Plaid governments, if we cannot govern without a majority. Scotland had an opportunity to vote in an independence referendum because the Liberal democrats at Westminster had the leverage to make that referendum part of the deal. Note, the UK Labour party under G Brown opposed Scottish interests using threats to use a veto at the EU council to prevent a newly independent Scotland from joining the EU. If Wales thinks it could go down the road of UK appeasement, then Wales needs to look at the experiences of the Ukraine; Appeasing Moscow they led their country into a situation giving a latter fascist administration at the Kremlin the momentum to invade their country in the attempt of wiping out the existence of the Ukraine. Wales could now face the same situation if this goes too far. Farage's last party was Brexit; Then it was UKIP. Do you know who the other founders of UKIP were ? Leaving the EU was a complete failure for the economic interests of the people. It didn't restrict immigration, however, it did make freedom of movement for British citizens much harder without European rights, including the right to travel, work or live in other European countries. One friend even had his career plans aborted now he cannot stay more than 90 days in his own place on European mainland soil. Leaving the EU was about restricting British citizens right including their right to live in mainland Europe. WE ARE EUROPEANS.

Well, I'm not voting for one. The d'hont system is totally undemocratic.