Caerphilly earthquake turns Welsh politics on its head

Jonathan Edwards

The Caerphilly by-election confirmed what the opinion polls have been saying for many months, that Welsh politics is at a transformative moment.

This time last year I wrote a speculative article for Nation.Cymru proclaiming that Welsh politics could easily polarise along these lines, leaving the two traditional main parties that have dominated Welsh and UK politics facing an existential crisis.

As the dust settles on the result it is clear the nation’s politics is polarising between Plaid Cymru and Reform, with Labour and the Tories now in extremely vulnerable positions.

In other articles at the beginning of the year on the strategic choices facing Plaid and Labour, I advocated that both had to polarise against Reform.

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Health warning

What made sense for both parties on an individual basis did come with one major health warning: if both parties pursued the same strategy, there was a danger that they would neutralise each other to the gain of Reform.

Therefore, what made sense individually for Labour and Plaid Cymru was collectively perilous. To prove I am no know-it-all, I was convinced earlier this week that this would be the outcome of the by-election.

On Thursday however the Labour vote dramatically collapsed, coalescing around Lindsay Whittle to deliver one of the most famous election victories in the history of Plaid Cymru. On a personal note, I am delighted for him after his decades of graft in the constituency. I thought his speech that the result should be noticed in London and Cardiff was spot on.

The Plaid leadership would do well to understand that the insurgency in Welsh politics is against both capitals. Whether the party can credibly portray itself as a Senedd insurgent force in a national election is a big question.

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Anti-Reform vote

Looking forward to May, I suspect the result will very much depend on whether the anti-Reform vote coalesces around one party or fragments. I suspect the new Senedd voting system may make it harder for voters to understand how to vote tactically when compared to a first past the post by-election, and surely Labour in a national campaign, in a battle for its very survival, won’t wilt like they did in Caerphilly.

While the by-election offers temporary relief, it would be beyond complacent to determine that the Reform threat is dealt with. Let no one be under any illusion: the real battle has yet to begin.

For Labour the result was a disaster. The party in Wales looks out on their feet, not helped by the wider UK party that treats its most loyal fiefdom as an afterthought. It appears that the locals are finally rebelling, and the ruling Labour political class in Wales is in a state of political paralysis. Is it too late to turn matters around? Probably.

However, if Keir Starmer is reading, here’s the beginning of a plan that might save his bacon. Introduce an emergency Government of Wales Act to equalise powers with Scotland and deal with national grievances such as HS2 and the Crown Estates.

Announce a Welsh Marshall plan with a dedicated long-term capital investment fund. Declare that the Union will be reformed so that constituent countries will have equal status on pan-UK bodies.

Do anything that shows that Labour cares for Wales. Pork barrel politics it is; however, people have long given up on the idea that the structures of the British State can deliver for Wales. Failure to act and the firestorm in Wales could very soon consume his own Premiership.

No 10 is not going to be able to cauterise a humiliation in Wales in May. Mr Starmer’s fate is very much intertwined with his party’s Senedd campaign.

Taken for granted

For Reform, the election result should be an awakening that politics should never be taken for granted.

It fought the election on a wave of arrogance thinking that it would win merely by filing the nomination papers on time. The Nigel Farage show is the party’s greatest strength, but it is going to need far more substance come May on its policy offer.

It is also going to have to find articulate candidates. Some of the interviews during the campaign were beyond awful with spokespeople not able to articulate a single policy commitment or in some cases a sentence. Does Caerphilly signal the moment when the wheels come off the cart for Reform in Wales? Time will tell.

Plaid Cymru will be hoping that there isn’t a complete collapse. The rise of an ultra-British nationalist right wing populist force has given Plaid a raison d’etre.

In the laws of political physics, the emergence of Reform has led to a counterbalance reaction in our country placing turbo charges under Plaid in the same way Brexit did for Welsh independence.

Threat

This might be difficult reading for some in Welsh nationalist circles, but they need Reform to remain a potent threat.

The by-election victory puts the party on course to win in May, a strategic must. Coming second and forming a government backed by Labour isn’t sufficient.

As First Minister, Rhun ap Iorwerth will face a hostile political landscape, paralysed at home due to a lack of a majority with a UK Government undermining his every step. He will need the moral authority of leading the largest party to give him any hope.

Can Plaid Cymru deliver?

Winning Caerphilly will count for nothing if the result isn’t replicated next May.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010 to 2024