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Opinion

Answering one of the biggest questions for an independent Wales

By David Owens
Wales flag unfurled by Welsh football fans the Red Wall at the Cardiff City Stadium (Credit: Nation Cymru)

Llew Gruffudd

A widely held conception is that Wales independence will lead to higher taxes and service cuts.

It is inevitable, they say, due to Wales not being able to pay its way.

It is understandable that many of the public will fear this, given that this view is expounded by people who ought to know better.

The Commission on the Constitution says it.

In their 'evidence' led conclusions on independence, they say 'whatever the size of Wales budget deficit, it will mean tax rises or service cuts.'

We are not allowed insight into this 'evidence' however.

Such a conclusion is a very large assumption and a very naive economic assertion.

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A contributor to Nation Cymru and Senedd member, Mike Hedges argues similarly, I think I quote him correctly he says ‘I have no strong objection to independence except that it will lead to higher taxes and service cuts'. This again without offering any evidence in support.

This view is presented, ignoring the fact that belonging to 'the Union' leads to tax rises and public service cuts by the Westminster government, tax rises that don’t particularly benefit Wales and public service cuts that impact on the Wales public, imposed without Wales consent on a regular basis.

In any case this view is mistaken.

It is a view of independence, viewed through the prism of the present constitutional arrangements. The economics of an independent Wales is quite different.

An independent Wales will have economic and financial tools not available to the present Welsh government.
It will be a sovereign state, with a sovereign currency and a Central Bank.

There will be those, I know, who would wish to keep the pound sterling, however to make the necessary and urgent improvements to the Wales economy, will take significant investment. Investment that can only be raised by a sovereign currency.

An example. Wales has abundant green, renewable energy resources. So says the new Welsh Secretary, but more convincingly by a leading UK engineering publication, who states that ‘Wales has the greatest concentration of renewable energy resources, than perhaps anywhere on the planet'.

Three recent surveys by Carbon Trust, Marine Energy Wales and Crown Estates have identified, through offshore wind turbines, marine and tidal and floating turbines, 14 GigaWatts of installed capacity.

Wales in the ‘Union'

Under the present system the way it works is that The Crown Estates, only now with the new GB Energy tagging along, carries out surveys to provide data to private developers. It issues licenses and takes the license fees.

Then along comes the private developer, develops the sites, sells the energy and spirits the profits away, mostly to foreign lands.

The UK government gets the tax revenues from profits, with GB Energy looking to have a little stake, so they can have a little share of the profits.

And what does Wales get?. It gets some jobs. Amount unknown for Welsh workers, permanency unknown.

The Welsh Secretary describes the proposed scheme based in Port Talbot, as permanent jobs in manufacture and installation.

So permanent, temporary then.

There is no wealth creation in this exercise to significantly benefit Wales and whereas the effect of wealth creation can be shared throughout Wales, the creation of jobs cannot.

The alternative

An independent Wales would own the resources, can raise the finance through its Central Bank or its own bonds, could generate the energy (Through a publicly owned energy company, just like Norway) and sell it on the wholesale market, with 14 Gigawatts of capacity worth almost £10 billion a year at present wholesale prices.(The Crown Estates alone calculating a further 20 GigaWatt of potential for floating turbines off the Welsh coast)

It could alternatively sell the electricity internally at a discounted price, giving cheaper electricity to consumers, businesses and public services (it would still a have a tidy sum left over to sell)

Such a policy would still be wealth creating, with lower energy costs meaning more disposable income for the individual [ consumer spending being the biggest driver of economic growth ]

Lower costs for business, higher profits, a more attractive business environment and increased government corporate tax revenues for the Welsh treasury.

Lower costs for public services, hospitals, care homes, schools etc, meaning more money diverted to frontline services.

Just one example of the income an independent Wales would generate.

In addition

Plus there is the tax revenues and fees from existing energy generation that would now come to the Welsh exchequer.

The ability to deal with tax losses through avoidance, evasion and mismanagement, inherent in the present UK tax system, with Wales' population share being £2 billion p.a.

In the medium term, there are gains from the new Wales ability to invest.

The Wales Governance Centre calculated that if Wales wage levels and therefore its tax revenues of income tax and NI, were at the levels of the UK average, it would add £5.4 billion per year to Wales government income.

This can be achieved by reversing the generations of lack of proper investment in skills and technology.

Studies by Nat West Bank and Deloittes found that if Wales productivity levels were at the UK level it would add £1.7 billion per year to Wales economy and if it reached the productivity of the best in Europe it would add £7.4 billion per year to Wales economy.

This would be done by reversing the historic underinvestment in innovation, research and development in Wales.

Just a sample of the benefits of investment, bringing large scale wealth gains to the nation.

A sovereign Wales with a sovereign currency and a Central Bank, would have the means of raising that investment.

So why on earth would an independent Wales need to raise taxes or cut services.

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59 comments

Steve A Duggan

Too right! Westminster knows only too well that an independent Cymru would prosper - that is one of the reasons it keeps Cymru down and poor. England would also have to buy much of it's renewable energy and water from Cymru - how humiliating. It's messages like the one in this article that need to be spread far and wide. Put on and in every Welsh town hall, public notice board and local newspaper. Belief in an independent Cymru has to be won - this would be a first step.

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Annibendod

The fact is that there are a tremendous number of unknowables simply because we do not have any firm proposals from any political party on how a future Welsh State would operate. We can't really know in full until we get there and have our first Executive of our newly independent State in place. Even then, it will take years untill we hit our straps. The economic performance of our future State will depend hugely on the performance of the government we elect. Is any of that an argument against independence? Certainly not. The point being is that it is simply not possible to predict. The best we have is that we know we have a close on £80Bn economy as our starting point. What public spending plans and taxes we will have will have to fit in that broad picture. Everything Llew outlines is possible but none guaranteed. So it seems to me that using the economy as the basis of the case for our Statehood introduces uncertainty. Some will be convinced and others not. Personally, I think our nationhood and the imperative for Welsh Democracy provides the most solid ground for our case. The way we tackle the economy in our case is to propose how we ensure effective government. The aim here should be to inspire confidence and not make various claims on a matter which is by its very nature, unpredictable. How do we ensure Wales is better governed? The economy will then follow.

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Llew Gruffudd.

I do agree that effective government is vital, in fact it is of greater concern to me than the economy of which I am confident. However to get to Independence, the public in particular needs to be convinced and that's down to the economy. On that depends the Public Service improvements, pensions and earnings, the things that most concern people.

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Annibendod

My point is that the economy of a future indy Wales will always be contested. I guess the UK could become so bad folk give up on it but I don't see it as the main tenent of our case. I think we've all been blindsided by this. Whenever I make the case for Statehood based on nationhood and democracy, I face little argument. Once it turns to government or the economy, it just send everyone into entrenched positions. Don't get me wrong, the economy was my go to. We're constantly attackedbon it so I felt "stuff it, I'm going on the attack." Tom Nairn talks about economic divergence driving nationalisms in Europe. However, and I think it's vital we root ourselves in this, our case for Statehood requires nothing more than our nationhood and through that, our impulse for Democracy. In the end, the anti-economic argument can be easily debunked. What matters is winning confidence. So in light of that, we have a pretty amateur Welsh Government making a cawlach of some key areas and in Scotland, an SNP mired in controversy. That's not winning people's confidence in self-government. Ultimately, what will sway people is the assurance of competent government. The nationhood/democracy argument appeals to the heart. Competent government is what the head is crying out for. Combine the two and we have a winner. The question for my party, Plaid Cymru, is how do we win confidence and demonstrate competence in government. IMHO, I think that's the piece of the jigsaw we're all looking for. Whilst the economic arguments are very important, I'd say trust is the key. This all brings me back to what I've argued previously - rather than campaigning for indy with little constitutional context, set forward a variety of constitutional options for our statehood. People balk at the unknown and uncertainty. When they have a realiseable and well defined new reality on offer, the mindset changes. We're not elucidating sufficiently what is on offer. It's that confidence thing again.

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In reply to Annibendod

Lyn E

Competence must include economics. The Truss lettuce government showed that. People will not support abstract arguments on ‘statehood’ if they do not believe proposals will improve their lives. Have you nothing to say to those living in poverty?

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Lyn E

Independence should not be seen as an end in itself but instead judged by whether or not it would benefit the wellbeing of current and future generations. The economy is central to that assessment. I agree we must improve governance.

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Annibendod

Independence should be seen as the means by which we establish, through democracy, our political agency to progress our political, economic, cultural and educational development. That is how the UN frames statehood. That is our right, our case and the purpose of our efforts. This is also an issue with the indy campaign - is this purpose clear and are we all in agreement. Does the public understand what we are trying to achieve?

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In reply to Annibendod

Lyn E

The purposes of the Indy campaign are certainly not clear. Independence’ has become a slogan for a range of proposals vastly different in their implications for people’s lives. Confederal union, UDI, hard or soft border, in or out of the EU, etc. How can people be expected to support ‘independence’ without knowing what it means?

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In reply to Lyn E

CapM

Who's decided and on what basis that " Independence’ has become a slogan for a range of proposals"? (is it you that's decided) The definitions in these links should help as a starting point https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_state https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation_state To address the particular issues you've raised. The decision to become part of a Confederation or not can only be made after Cymru becomes a nation state. UDI is for some a fantasy and for others used as reductio ad absurdum to make up for a less than convincing anti-independence argument. Hard or soft border is a -project fear - tactic used by the No to Scottish independence a campaign. It isn't really credible given the existing soft border for travel between the UK and Rep of Ireland. In or out of the EU, or any other supranational organisation or membership of any other international group of whatever type is again something for the elected government of an independent Cymru to determine. You're sort of putting the cart before the horse.

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In reply to CapM

Lyn E

Not putting the cart before the horse, just wanting to feel more confident that the cart is worth pulling and that the road leads towards sunny uplands rather than a cliff edge.

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In reply to Lyn E

CapM

The citizens of independent democratic countries choose the type of country they want to live in and path forward that country takes. The UK already does that. Either you don't trust the people of Cymru to do likewise or you don't really want Cymru to be independent and are at least content to carry on with the UK which it follows must be more sunny uplands than cliff edge.

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In reply to CapM

Lyn E

Self-determination (which I support) includes the right to decide to continue within the UK, as the people of Scotland decided to do ten years ago. If the people of Cymru were given that choice tomorrow there is no doubt they would do the same. If you want that to change, then you need to demonstrate to those who are not yet convinced that separation from the UK would mean a better life. You may regard independence as an overriding principle. I do not. The well-being of our people comes first.

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Neil Anderson

Quite right, Llew Gruffudd! But an independent Cymru will have many other choices we could and should exercise. Not to become a clone of England but to enhance the quality of a distinctive Welsh way of life for all our residents. This means adopting the deep green path of degrowth towards sustainability. Away from the growth fixations of fantasists and from the lopsided distribution of wealth to freedom, equity and peace. To ensure opportunity for all. To ensure there is a safety net for all. To ensure the preservation and development of our cultures. To contribute positively to the world. We need to be especially careful about the public investments we make. Even in health, education and social welfare, we will require a finesse that has been rare up to now. We will need a hard border (not for our residents of course) but to take control of immigration, citizenship and our sovereign currency.  Much more thinking required, and as Steve Duggan says, belief! Gall Cymru! Cymru can! Sefyll ar wahân fel Cymru ond sefyll gyda’n gilydd fel CymryStand apart as Cymru but stand together as Welsh!

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Lyn E

A hard border with England would impose severe costs on Cymru as it would impede free movement essential for both economic and social benefits. The difficulties Brexit has caused in Ireland suffices to show that.

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Annibendod

Herein lies a problem with our movement. As I allude to above, there are as many versions of indy as there are opinions. The conversation is healthy but there is no single solid proposal to put to the Welsh electorate. We probably need to look at 4 or 5 options and whittle them down.

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In reply to Annibendod

Neil Anderson

And there should not - at this stage, Annibendod - be a 'single solid proposal'. I particularly like your suggestion of 4 or 5 options - what I'd call scenario planning - within the independence envelope. Then it would become a process of mixing and matching, wide participation, deep criticism, reiteration, resilience testing and refinement to develop a specific set of proposals. A non-binding referendum utilising single transferable voting could then assist in determining the preferred options for political parties to adopt and re-form accordingly.

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Neil Anderson

Thanks, Lyn E. Depends how it was done really... I'm all for free movement. Please not that for the first time, thanks to a border tax recently imposed by the UK, the UK government will know who is in the country. Definitely a step forward. Loss of social benefits minuscule. On economic benefits, might we not want to impose some tariffs to protect our workers and producers? So-called free trade is good for traders. For the rest of us, not so much.

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In reply to Neil Anderson

Lyn E

Many people would baulk at needing a passport or visa to visit family or friends across the border.

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In reply to Lyn E

CapM

But seriously, although a - project fear - tactic will successfully deceive some people, do you genuinely think that passport control at Pont Hafren is anything but the stuff of dystopian fiction.

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In reply to CapM

Lyn E

It’s a real not fictional concern. Think about how travel or staying in EU countries has become less straightforward since Brexit. If England becomes a foreign country, then it will be free to control its borders as it pleases. The price of an open border might well be Cymru adopting English rules on who we would allow into our own country.

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In reply to Lyn E

CapM

"If England becomes a foreign country, then it will be free to control its borders as it pleases. " This sounds very like repeating the -project fear - argument. As an independent state Cymru will have to decide what relationship it wants and will accept with its nearest neighbour the independent state of England and vice versa. It's naive to assume that Cymru would have little or no say in how the relationship is set. It's wrong to think that Brexit and independence for England and Cymru are equivalent. An appreciation and understanding of what the EU and the UK are and have been should explain why.

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In reply to CapM

Lyn E

It’s not a question of Cymru ‘deciding’ what it wants. A border has two sides. If an independent Cymru wished to have an open border then it would have to negotiate the terms for that with England, a foreign country. There is far too much ‘have cake and eat it’ in the independence argument.

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In reply to Lyn E

CapM

I've repeatedly been drawing your attention to the fact that that both England and Cymru are involved in determining border conditions. The 'have cake and eat it ' attitude is part of English exceptionalism, residual empire mentality. if you think that such attitudes form part of independence for Cymru idea and movement you must be putting effort into avoiding becoming aware what it is that you're criticising. This English -Have cake and eat it - has fortunately been pretty comprehensively trounced after Brexit so it willlikely be a more realistic England we would deal with.

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In reply to CapM

Lyn E

'Have cake and eat it' was not just an English attitude to Brexit. The majority of the people of Cymru voted to leave too. I see the same mindset among some of those arguing for Welsh independence when they refuse to recognise that it would entail costs and risks as well as benefits, both of which need to be assessed before a judgement is made. I am open to reasoned arguments for constitutional change, but not to dogmatic blindness.

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In reply to Lyn E

Llew Gruffudd.

Why would people need a passport. You are in the realm of extremes. There already exists a free movement zone where the citizens of The Irish Republic, a member of the EU, citizens of the Channel Islands and Isle of Man, neither subject to the UK parliament, all can move freely throughout the UK, Other countries have similar arrangements. Free movement between Norway and Sweden, one a member of the EU, the other not, Citizens can cross the border between USA and Canada by showing a driving license. So why do you think Wales would be subject to more onerous regulation.

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In reply to Llew Gruffudd.

Lyn E

Not at all an extreme view. England will have become a foreign country. I need a passport to travel to France. It would of course be possible for both countries to agree free movement or arrangements less onerous than passports (although I can’t see any commuters being keen to show any paperwork on their daily journey). But that cannot be taken for granted. It would have to be negotiated - like so much else - and it may come with terms that would curtail our independent decision making. Can we really assume that a right wing Westminster government (Tory or Starmer Labour) would promise free movement to anyone that Cymru chose to allow into our country?

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In reply to Lyn E

Mr. Sneeze

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/common-travel-area-guidance

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In reply to Mr. Sneeze

Lyn E

I am well aware of the Common Travel Area between Ireland and the UK and such an agreement might be reached between England and Wales. But the CTA does not remove the need for a passport or documentation seen as equivalent. UK government guidance is explicit on this. 'If you’re travelling from Ireland to England, Scotland or Wales: A Border Force officer may ask to see proof of your identity and nationality. If you’re an Irish citizen, you can use any documents that show your identity or nationality. For example: a passport (current or expired), proof that you’ve been given Irish citizenship - such as a certificate of naturalisation, an Irish passport card (current or expired), a copy of your passport or Irish passport card that clearly shows your identity and nationality. You can use more than one document - for example, a driving licence with a certificate of naturalisation. If you’re using an expired passport or Irish passport card, it must be recent enough that it’s clear that it’s yours. If you’re not an Irish citizen, you’ll need to use either a passport or a national identity card, if you’re eligible.' https://www.gov.uk/uk-border-control/before-you-leave-for-the-uk

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Lyn E

There is certainly a need for economic policies that pay greater attention to the needs of Wales that happens today. Renewable energy has potential. But there is a lot of wishful thinking here. It is a delusion to think that independence with a central bank would suffice to reverse historic underinvestment in innovation, research and development. There are many examples of countries with their own central banks that are economic failures. A sovereign currency does not in itself enable a country to buy the imports it needs at a price it can afford to pay, not in its own currency, but in the pounds, euros, dollars, etc. that our suppliers would demand. The economy is indeed a big question over independence, and it needs a better answer than that given here.

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Llew Gruffudd.

I think you misunderstand me. There is no suggestion in the article that a Central Bank is an end in itself. It is a catalyst, providing, as the examples show the investment for Wales vast resources of renewable energy. The returns from this will in turn provide further investment, together with the finance to improve the well being of the people of Wales. It will take more than just one economic tool to do the job. But Wales with a sovereign currency and Central Bank has access to them.

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Lyn E

A central bank that increases its money supply can, in certain circumstances, catalyse investment and growth. But ultimately those depend on mobilising real resources, both people and capital, which are otherwise unused or poorly used. Through most of the 2010s, there was a good case for this as to stimulate demand. Over the past few years that has not been the case, as problems have been primarily caused by supply issues, such as those provoked by covid, Ukraine and climate change. Without mobilising new resources, increasing money supply generates inflation rather than growth. A Welsh Central Bank would bring risks as well as potential benefits. It would also be an obstacle to an independent Cymru joining the EU.

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In reply to Lyn E

Neil Anderson

With respect, Lyn E, and as a matter of fact, you are incorrect in your final sentence. But we would be foolish to rejoin the EU anyway. Ask Greece. The single market and customs union are fine... Similarly, such ideas on inflation need a broader macroeconomic understanding and less of the faulty analysis of the Bank of England, Treasury, Reeves et al. See Murphy on Funding the Future. Increases in money supply have mostly funded housing speculation and share buybacks, not productive investment. We are running out of cheap resources, and material growth is likely to be even more elusive in the next 100 years than in the last (Piketty). But there are massive opportunities for personal, educational, cultural and other forms of non-material growth.

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In reply to Neil Anderson

Lyn E

The Maastricht treaty specifies that new adherents to the EU should commit to adopting the Euro, managed by the ECB. In practice, there has been no fixed timescale for adoption but commitment to it would be required. As I’m unconvinced of the independence case, I don’t have a firm view on whether an independent Welsh state (if it ever happens, which I doubt) should join the EU. If you want to make a convincing case for an independent Cymru, then you need to demonstrate how such a state could take advantage of opportunities that might exist. You have not done so.

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In reply to Lyn E

CapM

"If you want to make a convincing case for an independent Cymru, then you need to demonstrate how such a state could take advantage of opportunities that might exist. " Then a convincing case for Cymru to be within the UK, the same advantage of opportunities needs to be demonstrated. I can think of a big opportunity that has recently been denied to Cymru - membership of the EU. The Leave majority in Cymru is immaterial as it's very unlikely that an independent Cymru membership would have been such a big issue never mind having a referendum on it.

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In reply to CapM

Lyn E

We cannot dismiss the Leave vote in Cymru because we dislike it. It happened. Brexit has complicated the independence case. Cymru as a member state of the EU with equal status to other nations now in the UK would be far more viable than other options. Joining an EU without our major trading partner (which is and will remain England) would be difficult.

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In reply to Lyn E

CapM

I note you didn't even attempt to address - Then a convincing case for Cymru to be within the UK, the same advantage of opportunities needs to be demonstrated.

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In reply to CapM

Lyn E

In or out of the UK, neoliberalism will block opportunities. Breaking from that is the change we need.

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In reply to Lyn E

CapM

You still haven't addressed - Then a convincing case for Cymru to be within the UK, the same advantage of opportunities needs to be demonstrated. So the conclusion follows that you're unable to?

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In reply to CapM

Lyn E

I’m neither a nationalist nor a unionist but a pragmatist. The main advantages of remaining in the union are the lack of a border and a larger tax base, but the disadvantages of reduced control over policy are substantial. Both ‘devo max’ and confederal union are credible options, the costs and benefits of which need to be assessed pragmatically not dogmatically.

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In reply to Lyn E

CapM

Independence isn't just a matter of pounds and pence to maintain it is would be dogmatic. Maybe you haven't been paying attention to what happens in the world. Lack of border - you seem to be unaware of examples of trade agreements across other such borders. Larger Tax base - your presenting permanent dependence as an advantage! "I’m neither a nationalist nor a unionist but a pragmatist." Really! That puts you in the same category as those running multinational companies, the money men of global finance, media barons, oligarchs, billionaires such as Musk and Bezos, They're not about nations but all about being pragmatic about money like you. It would have been better to say that you're an "internationalist" worn out insubstantial and spurious though the term is.

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In reply to CapM

Lyn E

Trade agreements would be essential for a Welsh state. The most important of those would be with England, which is by far our largest trading partner and would remain so. An agreement with England (with GDP twenty times Wales) would require Cymru accepting English rules with perhaps a few tweaks. In the worst case, ‘independence’ could look very like neo-colonialism. I’m happy to be described as internationalist.

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In reply to Lyn E

Llew Gruffudd.

I must admit I am struggling to understand your point. My article is in the context of an Independent Wales and in which case the present depressed state of the Welsh economy poses little risk of inflation through the injection of money. In this scenario the money is used for investment and economic growth. Your apparent dismissal of energy as a vehicle for such growth is also misplaced, when the few examples given, shows the potential, so wishful thinking , no. As for your point on a Central Bank being an obstacle to EU membership, I can't see that argument as all present members have their own Central Banks.

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In reply to Llew Gruffudd.

Lyn E

I should have said ‘sovereign currency’ rather than central bank’. Members of the eurozone do have central banks but with much reduced powers. I certainly don’t dismiss renewable energy as a path to growth although it will not suffice on its own. There are also challenges around the environmental implications of large energy infrastructure (e.g. proposed solar farms on the ecologically precious Gwent Levels). Money creation can stimulate growth but other countries cannot be obliged to accept a country’s currency. Imports for consumption and investment will be unavoidable. Paying our way in the world needs us to produce what others want.

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In reply to Lyn E

Llew Gruffudd.

Any restrictions on Wales own currency would only apply if Wales were to adopt the Euro and that is by no means a given. Wales would be free to make that choice and consideration of all the advantages and disadvantages in such a move. It is not however a condition of Wales becoming Independent. That's what Independence means, free to choose it's own alliances. With regard to renewable energy, you are not only unduly pessimistic, but underestimate the benefits. The environmental implications you are concerned about are not a necessary part of Wales renewable energy sector, the major part which will be offshore. [ still of course with environmental considerations ] With regard to the gains, the few examples I gave will bring an additional £10 billion per year, not insignificant and put in context, the equivalent per capita of the UK gaining an an additional additional £220 billion per year. In addition, the capacity from those few examples would supply all Wales energy needs from all sources. So if necessary as the major source of generating a growth path, it will suffice on its own

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In reply to Llew Gruffudd.

Lyn E

Agreed an independent Wales need not choose to be part of the EU/eurozone. Agreed too that renewable energy has great potential for Wales. But don’t dismiss environmental concerns over issues like solar farms on the Gwent Levels SSSIs. We don’t yet have an energy master plan that would show how the economic gains could be realised while minimising ecological harm. Wales cannot build renewable energy infrastructure purely from our own resources. Materials, components, some skills, etc. will have to be imported, and they can’t be paid for with a Welsh sovereign currency. If we want to sell surplus energy then England is the most obvious market.

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In reply to Lyn E

Llew Gruffudd.

Why is there a need for solar farms on the Gwent Levels, or any other environmentally sensitive area. There is plenty of scope elsewhere. With regard to selling the energy, that will be done on the wholesale market, with England among the customers. And as far as the purchase of imported components etc, of course we pay for it in our own currency by using it to purchase the relevant foreign currency, it's the way the money market works, I would expect a supply chain to develop in an Independent Wales sooner rather than later.

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In reply to Llew Gruffudd.

Lyn E

I agree there is no need for solar farms on environmentally sensitive areas. But there is already one on the Gwent Levels and several more proposed. NC reported on one earlier this week. Planning Policy Wales edition 12 should provide extra protection but it has yet to be tested.

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In reply to Llew Gruffudd.

Lyn E

Any country producing more of its own currency to purchase those of other countries would see its value fall. Imports need corresponding exports or else an inward flow of capital, either for productive investment or unsustainable debt.

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In reply to Lyn E

Llew Gruffudd.

You must know that that the movement of capital is a natural consequence of a floating currency and governed by many factors. That's the role of a Central Bank to regulate excessive movements. Nor is a fall in the value of currency inevitable in currency exchange particularly when the transactions are for capital investment to grow the economy. These are all considerations the money markets take into account.

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In reply to Llew Gruffudd.

Lyn E

Yes, but there are a lot of ifs here, and many Central Banks do not do this very well. The essential point is that the ability to 'print' sovereign currency acts only on the demand side of the economy, and may do so excessively. It does not resolve supply side constraints, such as a shortage of skills or productive capacity. Borrowing to invest is fine in principle, although a small country seeking to borrow in its own currency may find that interest rates are exorbitant. But that investment needs to generate a return sufficient to repay the debt. Many countries with their own currency and central bank fail to achieve this.

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Mike Hedges

The data I used is that GVA in Wales is approximately 75% of the UK average. The only way it has got anywhere near balancing an independent Wales budget is by not funding retirement pensions.

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Neil Anderson

Your letter, Mike, merely demonstrates the foolishness of understanding independence through the lens of a UK-style monetary and fiscal system, as if that is the only option.

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CapM

"The data I used is that GVA in Wales is approximately 75% of the UK average. " That's the sort of go to figure beloved by Unionists that underlines, so they think, a reason that Cymru being part of the UK is so tremendous. "The only way it has got anywhere near balancing ...." Might that be because of a lack of balancing skills.

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Lyn E

Neither being in or out of the UK will in itself provide a better economic path to that we have been stuck on ever since Thatcher proclaimed there was no alternative. The fundamental issue is neoliberalism and subordination to the demands of global capitalism. This is oppressive to most people in England as well as in other nations.

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In reply to Lyn E

CapM

If your preference is for the continuance of the British nation state rather than the establishment of Cymru as a nation state then be open and honest about it and put forward the reasons why you think British is better and why you prefer to be a British subject rather than a citizen of Cymru. I'm not going to hold my breath. .If you're seeking some sort of reset of the global economic order I think you're going to be in a state of perpetual frustration and disappointment whatever the constitutional set up is. So discussing independence is pointless as you have a bigger fish you want to fry.

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Llew Gruffudd.

So, the dreaded GVA. An indiscriminate and crude measure of a nations economy. GDP, or in Wales case GVA, loves wars. You can spend a lot of money on wars, arms, rebuilding contracts. That will grow GVA. Crime is another. Lots of money spent on the prevention and aftermath of crime. That will grow GVA. As someone else once said, you can sit in a slow moving traffic jam for an hour and that contributes to GVA, but volunteer in your local hospital for a day, that doesn't. So your 75% example, even if accurate, which, with the way data is collected and used in the UK. is doubtful, tells us very little. I also wonder why you chose pensions as the area to be cut. Perhaps it is to introduce the most fear factor impact. My article however includes pensions together with Public Services, as safe from the economic illiteracy being shown, particularly by your partners in Westminster. Cutting peoples spending [ consumer spending being the biggest contributor to GDP ] and expecting growth, is almost akin to the quoted definition of madness.

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Annibendod

OH MY GOSH!!! OUR GVA IS 75% OF THE UK AVERAGE!!! Clearly an appalling inequality. Why would I wish to continue in a union that made us poor then Mike?

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Annibendod

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita I note that the EU has an average GDP per capita almost identical to Wales'. D'ya think the UK should take over the poor old EU for their own good? Daft argument, always has been. Umpteen independent states with a lower GDP/GVA than Wales. Always assumes the worst case scenario. Read Tom Nairn, Mike.

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Annibendod

Mike likes a good list. There's a good list of facts and figures about States in this article: https://bylines.cymru/voices-lleisiau/welsh-independence-economics-one/

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