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Opinion

20 really is plenty

By Mark Mansfield
Photo Ben Birchall/PA Wire

Gwern Gwynfil

A recent poll suggested that 70% of the Welsh population remain opposed to the ‘blanket’ 20mph zoning of residential areas across Wales.

As this is a policy which clearly works, saving lives, saving money and having negligible impacts on actual journey times, perhaps we should be wondering what the hell is wrong with us?

There are already fewer accidents and the ones that occur are less serious – this means fewer dead people and fewer people suffering life changing injuries. The financial savings in terms of accidents averted are significant enough to more than compensate for the cost of the 20mph rollout within the first year or two.

Not to mention the avoided human costs of all those individual tragedies that will not happen in the decades to come because drive speeds in residential areas have slowed. It even appears as if vehicle insurance premiums will be coming down as a result of the reduction in accidents. Not to be sniffed at in a country suffering a cost of living crisis.

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Not all Sunshine and Light

Whilst this is clearly a good policy and a change we should all embrace, there are plenty of criticisms to make of the implementation of the new residential street default 20mph regulation. There are even more when it comes to the utter failure to communicate this change effectively. Much of the blame for people’s failure to understand the benefits of the change has to be laid at the door of Welsh Government and our current leadership in Wales.

Whilst the data driven and evidence led case in favour of this change was strong and implementing it as a default change was the most efficient and cheapest way of making the change, Welsh Government have been characteristically poor in their delivery and implementation. The change to the law has been entirely vindicated already by the data that’s been gathered. Over time this evidence will simply be overwhelmingly in favour of the change and the positive impacts that have flowed in its wake.

By providing fairly loose guidance and not countering the innate inertia of our unnecessary plethora of local councils in Wales, nowhere near enough of those councils gave due consideration to the road networks in their areas. This means that the relatively small number of roads where it does not make sense to revert to the new default 20mph were overlooked and bundled into the wider change.

Populists

Easy targets for the populists and fomenters of disinformation and misinformation. The trick of using a single egregious example to illustrate a point whilst conveniently ignoring the vast majority of examples and the overwhelming weight of evidence to the contrary that this provides is a classic trick from the populist playbook.

When this happens it falls to leaders in society and sensible media commentators and outlets to counter with detail, facts and a robust defence of the realities of a situation. Not to crumple at the first sign of criticism but to riposte with firm, clear argument, making the case for a law they know is right and which is demonstrably an improvement. A few exceptions simply prove the rule and can be easily addressed and modified if needed – no doubt there will be a handful of roads in every county where it will be sensible and logical to raise the speed limit without detriment to the spirit of the new law.

This defence of the 20mph default did not happen and is still not happening – a reflection of the fear and cowardice, the lack of confidence of our leaders and our media here in Wales?

Welsh Labour Cowardice

As with so much that is inadequate today in Wales we have to point the finger at the Welsh incarnation of the Labour Party. They are the government of the day, this is their law, communicating the reasoning for its implementation and making the case for the change was, and still is, their responsibility. They bottled it at launch and they’re still bottling it now.

Rather than slapping down the folly of Andrew RT Davies’ very effective ‘blanket’ 20mph campaign (factually incorrect and incredibly hypocritical as he is a known supporter of 20mph zoning in the past), Welsh Labour pursued a pissant policy of appeasement - a ‘review’ of the guidance together with some soft, weaselly words that give the impression of rowing back from their commitment to the policy.

Definitely no brave and bold champions stepping up and making it clear that this was the right thing to do, that it leads the way by being a default zoning and, most damning of all, a clear demonstration that the majority of this governing political party lack the courage of their convictions.

There are honourable exceptions of course, Lee Waters made these same points himself. He even had the decency to concede a mea culpa for the poor implementation of the change. Such a shame his colleagues failed to seize that baton and uphold his stance and the bravery and integrity it displayed.

Not on my street

 I defy you to find someone on a new 20mph road who wants the speed raised outside their own doorstep – many of the same people will still be against what they have been told is a negative change that damages Wales (even whilst they recognise the positive change on their own street).

Our leaders are there to help resolve such cognitive dissonance by providing an accurate representation of the reality and by making the global argument in favour of a change we can see is a positive one on our own doorsteps.

This was an opportunity for politicians to show that they are honest, that they can be trusted, that they will take sensible long term decisions in defiance of popular feeling and ill founded consternation whipped up by populists and the right wing press. Worth noting that it is the English media that have stoked the fires started by RT’s rhetoric even whilst overlooking the increasingly large number of English Councils who are effectively implementing the same default 20mph zoning in their residential areas. Why let the truth get in the way of a good story eh?

Should Welsh leaders draw attention to the fomenting of discontent in Wales by English papers and English Tories?

Yes, yes they should.

Should they expose the hypocrisy of these commentators and campaigners?

Of Andrew RT Davies?

Yes, yes they should.

Do they do so?

No, no they do not.

Paradise Lost

 Welsh politicians have blown an opportunity to restore faith in politics. They continue to show that they are weak and aimless, they continue to allow the public to foster and cherish the belief that politicians are untrustworthy, their actions continue to undermine the integrity of political life and therefore the health of civic society across Wales in general.

The people of Wales are justifiably angry, worried and often afraid for the future – they can’t be blamed for thinking that no one speaks for them, that no one represents them, that no one who serves them has the best interests of Wales and the people who live here written into the very language of their being.

Do we have a right to expect such depth of commitment from our political leaders?

Yes, yes we do.

Can we come to trust and believe in such leaders again in the future?

Yes, yes we can.

Will this be straightforward.

No, no it will not.

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49 comments

Tony Jones

People have the right to disagree, but they need to produce evidence. Andrew RTD has repeatedly referred to this as a blanket, when it isn't (there are still plenty of 30mph limits). It is mildly annoying to do 20mph where one used to do 30. Some of the decisions about what speed is appropriate seem bizarre and should be reviewed. The absence of any signs on entering Wales seems mean, and could make prosecution of England-based drivers difficult. But speed limits felt random before this was implemented, and a solid review would be welcome. This policy is saving lives. A mother recently talked of how it had saved her son's life. She should take him to meet ARTD to ask why he wants her son dead.

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Howie

The legislations aim was to make restricted roads safer which as latest data suggests has happened, then it is delivering it's aim for all highway users. Not defending Davies in any way but the original legislation was to make all restricted roads, within that definition, subject to a 20mph restriction not 30mph as previous, a blanket imposition in someone's warped parallel universe maybe, an exemption could be given by the Traffic Authority for it to remain at 30mph, which in essence has created the furore in many parts of Wales by the inconsistencies of the local Traffic Authorities and exemptions they have applied or not. The Welsh Govt has paid and recently paid for further reviews, substantial amounts to the consultants who developed this change but in my opinion those consultants failed to provide adequate guidance to the Traffic Authorities so that a more uniform approach on like for like road layout and conditions could be applied across Wales. As I have travelled through most of Wales since the change it is quite obvious differing authorities have applied many different solutions for the same outset conditions leading to some peoples wry perceptions of the changes being made. By the number of times I have been overtaken while driving at 20mph, or crossing road between traffic calming areas with some drivers speeding up between them to get to next restriction first, some people just don't get what the purpose of change was for.

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Tony Jones

You've been overtaken in a 20mph zone? I've never seen this, sadly, as I love beeping at idiots. I enjoy tailgaters too - I slow down another 10mph, then speed up to re-create an acceptable gap. Once or twice usually does the trick.

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In reply to Tony Jones

T3DSK1

the trick with tailgaters is to ignore them keep to your speed but leave a good distance to the vehicle in front so you can slow down gradually (2 seconds as recommended in the Highway code) and try to ignore them in your rear view mirror. the trouble is most of them dont know they are doing it some do but that is deliberate. There is a driving instructor on YouTube who has a video relating to this Ive used it for a good while now and it works and is less stressful it is well worth looking out for it

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Mawkernewek

I assume there are signs when entering a 20 mph and repeater signs within the zone?

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Richard 1

It is.

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Adrian

No, it isn't. You're confusing opinion with fact.

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John Ellis

'There are already fewer accidents and the ones that occur are less serious – this means fewer dead people and fewer people suffering life changing injuries.' I was initially sceptical as to the desirability of this innovation - not least because it seemed to me bound to to make things more difficult for people - such as district nurses, domiciliary care staff and bus drivers, for example - whose daily work requires them to stick to a tight timetable. But the hard statistics around the reduction in the number and seriousness of road accidents on urban roads have shifted my view.

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Adrian

So let's ban cars altogether and reduce all that to zero - see any down sides? Life is about balancing risk with the ability to operate a society.

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Tony Jones

Indeed. That's why 20mph (30kph on the continent) seems sensible and nobody is talking about 15mph. These limits in residential areas happen all over the world, in order to reduce the number of deaths. Grumbling about it as a minor annoyance is one thing - being completely opposed seems callous.

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Sean Thompson

Reductio ad absurdum is a very poor - and usually dishonest - debating technique. In this case, assessing the evidence of the result of changing the balance of risk to pedestrians, cyclists, car drivers and their passengers against the inconvenience to drivers clearly and demonstrably shows that the safety of all road users has been significantly improved at the cost of insignificant additional inconvenience to drivers. Where's your problem with that?

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John Ellis

You rather disappoint me: usually your posts strike me as rational and reasonably arguable even when I disagree with the perspective which you offer. What went wrong this time?!

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Richard 1

Recently I was driven by a relative who hates the limit but I was very impressed by the effectiveness of the gizmo in her car that sounds a warning when she exceeded 20 (it's a matter of an on-board camera that reads the signs). The warnings were obviously more obnoxious than having to slow down. Hooray for technology.

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Blinedig

I understand that all new cars from July have automatic speed limiters switched on. Anyone who overrides them is at risk of invalidating their insurance.

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Jeff

Speed limiters have been touted for years. EU had a program to role them out using Galileo some years ago, wonder if it has morphed. This the EU wide one but not applying to UK? I expect all the CPU's have had the capability for years.

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In reply to Jeff

Blinedig

They apply to the UK too I understand. All new cars from last July. Override the system at risk of invalidating your insurance.

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In reply to Blinedig

Jeff

I thought UK was exempt. Either way, it was a sort of gonna happen anyway. I expect the UK to fall in line at some point. Welcome to the world of truckers. https://www.which.co.uk/news/article/new-car-speed-limiter-laws-takes-effect-next-month-what-you-need-to-know-aGhzM8o8XXcf

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Les Cargot

I still get idiots tailgating me when I’m sticking to 20 mph. Is it because they disagree with me abiding by the law?

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Adrian

You'd have to ask the idiots.

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Les Cargot

Well, seeing as my comment was addressed to you, Adrian, if the cap fits etc.

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hdavies15

Carry a pick axe handle in your vehicle. Pull up sharpish, wave the handle and ask politely " you were trying to attract my attention, pal". Be ready to use the handle cos some of them are looking for trouble.

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Les Cargot

Violence is never the answer, front and rear on board cameras are a much better option. Tailgating is an offence and in some cases can be treated as dangerous driving. Send the evidence to your local constabulary via Operation Snap. Just make sure you’re not recording yourself addressing the situation with a pick axe handle.

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Fanny Hill

An eighty years young Mamgu wielding a pick axe handle doesn’t paint an altogether pretty picture.

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In reply to Fanny Hill

hdavies15

That would generate a wave of support for the 80 year old Mamgu ! A well timed shot at the right knee of the offender will make pressing the accelerator a painful experience for a while !

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Gwern Gwynfil

Bore da Adrian, I absolutely respect people’s right to disagree and welcome any informed opinions with cogent, sustainable and data driven arguments. And that’s the crux. The data from other countries where this change had been implemented was already overwhelming. Lo and behold, data from Wales since the change backs this up completely. This was entirely predictable and the arguments and reasoning which led to the change originally have simply been reinforced. Why then have Welsh politicians and Welsh leaders rowed back on something they got right and they should be celebrating? It’s bad politics, it’s poor leadership, it speaks to an entire nation’s lack of self confidence. We all deserve better - even if you disagree with this particular law.

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Jeff

Doesn't help when the welsh cons constantly attack it in a way to encourage dissent. Rather than sit back and say "lets see the benefits then we make a choice", the cons decided that they "don't care about lives and injuries, we will harm you all for our ideological hate" and ART "I am not racist but" D is out front tubthumping, it is all he does, bashing that tub. He is not the political thinker he thinks he is. I am all for it. I was on the fence and waited to see how it would affect me. It doesn't affect me. When you read on a motoring forum how to game the petition, you know its not to be trusted.

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Fanny Hill

Don’t mention anything trans, You’ll set Adrian off on one.Poor dab.

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Shân Morgain

Happy to see this issue aired and argued, thank you Gwern Gwynfil. But I should like the name of the research behind the key claim ‘There are already fewer accidents and the ones that occur are less serious – this means fewer dead people and fewer people suffering life changing injuries.’ Named research would strengthen the case a great deal. Similarly if a poll shows 70% opposition by the public, please tell us which poll by whom.

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Gwern Gwynfil

Diolch Shân, the link to the YouGov poll is embedded in the article (just click on ‘poll’ in the first line and it will take you there). For stats - the Stats Wales site is improving consistently (but can still be laborious to work through and is currently being updated to a new format as well!). Unless you are a data head, (in which case dive in to the site and have fun!), I’d recommend finding trusted number crunchers to do the work for you. Beware those who deliberately misinterpret stats through selective use of data points and those whose numeracy is frankly not up to effective and accurate interpretation of the numbers!

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Shân Morgain

I support this law in principle. Anything that reduces unnecessary deaths and major injuries gets my vote. But in practice this law gets me highly nervous in case I miss a sign and break it. Driving has become unpleasantly anxious. So I now don't go out unless absolutely necessary. A bonus win for pollution levels I suppose but an added load to growing agoraphobia as I get older. It's complicated. :)

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Mark

The word "poll" (3rd word in the article) links to the poll. The research showing a drop in accidents was published on nation.cymru recently: https://nation.cymru/news/new-data-confirms-positive-impact-of-20mph-speed-limit/ I get your concern about going over the limit. You could try just sticking to 20mph everywhere that is built up (has street lamps or pavements). Or get a sat nav that will tell you the soeedy limit as you drive. Good luck!

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Jeff

I can understand that. My in car sat nav costs a fair bit of loot to upgrade so the speed display is stuck at 30 where it should be 20. Ford can get lost, I am not paying for that upgrade. To this end my main gripe is lack of repeaters. I know that lamp post distance etc. etc. and all that but when a new regime comes in like this the signage is very important. There are still area's where 30 is the norm on the same lamppost distance.

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Y Cymro

The 20 mph default speed limit was , and still is, a good law poorly implemented by Welsh Labour. And it makes me bloody angry all those that listened to the likes of Conservative clown Andrew RT Davies and other cretins who were led like sheep as they were with their monumental self harm with Brexit attacking signs that itself could have caused accidents moronic. Big things were made of the poll by those who were hostile. And because of Andrew RT Davies including I might add, Iain Duncan Smith whose BBC interview condoned damage done to ULEZ cameras which was shared on X (Twitter) by the Welsh Conservatives that no doubt led to damage to road signs throughout Wakes costing thousands to replacing but if this the 20 mph default is returned to the 30 mph. Will be another act of self harm. Yesterday I was told by a family member who lives in Swansea that a child was hit by a car driving erratically and that there was an Air Ambulance Wales flying above the city en route to Morrison Hospital. My memory then flashed back to the early 1980s when on two separate occasions my sisters nearly died having both been hit by speeding cars. Why are we in Wales so damn stupid sometimes, I ask myself? We get angry over Europe with Brexit , enough to leave causing untold harm to our economy, Senedd democracy, human rights & state funding , but do nothing when the Tory government steals power from our Senedd, robs us of billions in HS2 consequential and interfered questioning Senedd competency and even repelled Welsh Law. Normal countries and its people would be outraged?

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Cyrano Jones

I share your support for data-driven policy. But the (un)popularity of a policy is also data. Assuredly there were opponents of 20mph, especially early on, who were ignorant or misinformed. But that opposition should have started to fade as people experienced what 20 is like in practice – as the WG's experts apparently assured them it would. There's no sign of that yet. Even 59% of Labour voters are now against it, and I don't suppose many of them are hanging on the words of ARTD. Maybe people in practice are finding 20mph a bigger nuisance than the modelling led you to expect? In my rural part of Wales, it's true to say there are "relatively" few roads that are now 20 and really shouldn't be. But they tend to be the roads that are most used (A and B roads through villages). At what point do you start to allow popular opposition into your data?

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Mark

This is an existential question about democracy. Should governments make decisions that people support, or decisions that support the people (validated by data)? Seeing the populist thinking of recent times, I'm inclined to go with the former. Governments didn't get this much stick before. Social media and misinformation has made the population believe they should have a say on every single matter - no government can operate effectively this way, nothing would get done. Vote for your party of choice then trust they will try and improve things for you. (I know you're just asking the question rhetorically, it's a good discussion point).

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Garry Jones

​17% fewer road traffic collisions reported to police in 2024 Q1, compared to 2023 Q1, correlating with fewer fatalities and serious injuries. it follows from the YouGov poll result showing 72% against the new speed limit, that some drivers and households who continue to oppose the limit may have already benefitted seriously from 20 is Plenty. We and they may never know who they are, whether drivers, or other road users. 

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CapM

Insurance policies are the clincher. If they are less expensive due to less incidents due to more 20mph limits then the only question for those against the 20mph limits is - Do you really want to scrap the default 20mph limit and so pay more for your vehicle insurance and increase the chances of losing your no claim bonus?

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Nicola

As a former community speedwatch volunteer living on a now 20mph road, I and several members of the community want it changed back to 30mph. Several CSW volunteers resigned as they wanted no part in getting letters sent to people for doing 26mph and above. It’s a rural road and nobody was sticking to 30, let alone 20! At least we’d have a speedwatch if the road was put back to normal. And please do not remain under the illusion that this was ever about safety. It was about climate. Go and read Future Wales 2040 and the Transport Strategy 2021. By the way, hardly anyone in our area is driving at 20 and all is well.

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CapM

"And please do not remain under the illusion that this was ever about safety. It was about climate. " Thanks for the reminder that safety isn't the only good reason for the 20mph limit.

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Adrian

What good reason? The 'impending climate catastrophe' has absolutely no grounding in evidence. It's not even proven that CO2 is part of the problem. Net Zero is an idiotic pipe dream signed up to by dim wit politicians.

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In reply to Adrian

Drew Anderson

Consider this: One of the most fundamental principles of maths and science is that you cannot unbalance an equation. In the same vein, you can't alter the proportions in a recipe and expect the same result. It follows, you simply cannot alter the composition of the atmosphere and claim it has no effect whatsoever. What those effects are isn't the point here, but the climate will be affected in some way; fact. So, having established that changing the composition of the atmosphere, by adding CO2, must have an effect, that raises the question; does that cause cooling or heating? The fact that the 10 warmest years, since detailed records began, were the last 10 years should give you a hint. --- ICE engines are most efficient at 56mph. The further away, in either direction, the less efficient they are. Your argument that this "is about climate" doesn't stack.

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In reply to Adrian

Karl

How about the Nitorgen dioxide that is at high levels on my street. It's not all CO2 and its not all net zero that you clearly oppose. It's about breathable air for all. Not nasty air full of particles for our lungs to deal with.

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Llyn

Nicola, please can you provide a link to the 20mph literature produced by the Welsh Government that says or indicates that the 20mph was for climate change? Also, please can you name the road that you and neighbours were speedwatching on that does not require a 20mph and anyone to receive a notice for driving at 26mph to 30mph, but apparently becomes so dangerous at 30mph it requires speedwatch teams? I assume because of danger to human life?

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Adrian

As usual, someone in favour of generalised 20mph speed limits claims a slam-dunk victory by citing the benefits, and completely ignores one half of the debate. Almost every engagement in life & society involves balancing risk with reward, otherwise we wouldn’t get out of bed for fear of falling down the stairs. The actual consideration with this matter is what level of risk are we prepared to accept in order to allow people to drive motor vehicles. The author clearly accepts this premise: people still get killed when there’s a 20mph limit. If all we cared about was minimising casualties we’d just ban cars altogether - and society would hardly function at all. There are known downsides to reducing speed limits: diminishing returns on speed reduction, increased disregard of motor law in general, increased journey times, increased road rage & ‘tailgating’, decreased engine efficiency, and higher emissions: the author mentions none of this. Some people believe the risk/reward equation is best served at 30mph, others at 20mph: both accept that there will be accidents and deaths, so let’s be clear, neither holds the moral high ground. As far as the government’s ‘consultations’ are concerned, we should all know by now that such displays are meaningless: our dear leaders habitually decide the outcome and then go on to manufacture the supporting evidence: that’s why 450,000 people complained about the policy after the fact. By all means analyse this issue, but can we please analyse all of it, not half of it?

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Gwern Gwynfil

Your comment is a misrepresentation if the article. Which is really about the cowardice of our political leadership and the appalling misinformation peddled by the political opposition. You are right that the wider issue is not black and white (few things are) but the use of a default 20mph zoning approach for residential areas is sensible for lots of reasons 1. On balance 20mph has shown itself (in multiple international studies in developed economies with similar infrastructure) to be the sweet spot on speed (30kph in metric countries) 2. By introducing a default system with guidance for exemption to 30mph, you actually save local councils a shedload of money as they will have fewer roads upon which to assess and consult - this is more pragmatic and efficient than running through the process endlessly for many more roads in a reduction from 30mph on a case by case basis scenario As to your known downsides: 1. diminishing returns on speed reduction - yes, and 20mph/30kph is acknowledged as the sweet spot 2. increased disregard of motor law in general - I am not sure that people driving badly and breaking the law is the justification you think it is. New drivers won’t do this, good drivers won’t do this, those who do should be punished by the law 3. increased journey times - the vast majority of individual journeys are short, it may add seconds to the journey time, it probably won’t have any impact in and at high traffic areas and times - in fact, some early analysis suggests that smoothing out traffic flow in urban areas is can be beneficial to journeys 4. increased road rage & ‘tailgating’ - see point 2 - drive well and don’t be an arsehole 5. decreased engine efficiency and higher emissions - this is possible (EVs, modern automatics won’t have an issue) but those who adjust their driving style can ameliorate this and even increase efficiency

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Adrian

Gwern: In my view we now live in a world where the political selection pool is utterly dismal. On a broad point, I don't believe that any Senedd politician has the scruples, spine, or even intelligence to be making important decisions, so we at least partly agree on your 'cowardice' point. Firstly 'acknowledged as the sweet-spot' is not an argument, it cites subjective opinion: we know that at least 400,000 people disagree. My assertion of reduced compliance with this law, and laws in general, is not based on 'what I think it is', it's as evidence-based as any of your more grounded arguments. Increased journey times - again, there are studies on this so 'probably won't have any impact' is a lazy argument. 'Drive well and don't be an A****e' may sound beautifully Utopian but it's not grounded in reality: research shows that if people start flouting small rules, they tend to start flouting the bigger ones. As far as EVs are concerned, again, it's not all beer & skittles I'm afraid. For example An Ev's carbon footprint at the point of manufacture is considerably higher than that of an ICE vehicle: they need to cover around 60,000 miles (on average) before they reach parity. If the intention is to reduce vehicle use, that will extend the time it takes to reach this point. Look - I'm not disagreeing with you, and maybe 20mph will work out OK but I believe in impartial balanced analysis. The best way to test the strength of an argument is usually to make a case for the opposing one. In the words of John Stuart Mill 'He who knows only his own side of the case knows little of that'. .

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In reply to Adrian

Llyn

Hi Adrian, please could you name the Welsh MPs and other MPs that you currently believe have the "scruples, spine...intelligence" to make "important decisions".

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Jeff

My MPGometer, uncalibrated of course, has shown nothing in the way of change and I use 20's every day. Before the change came in, a long stretch near me, I did a check at 30. Did the same at 20 when it was enacted and no change. I then averaged out the overall long run using the 30, 40, 50 and 60 in that drive and checked that several miles worth and no change. Un scientific but it is the only meter I have. Driving these every day, I still fill up around the same time for the same milage overall for a tank. It was interesting. (knowing this was coming in I got a bit checking over it as I was on the fence).

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Karl

So your arguement is I should have risked forced uopn me, because you don't like safety

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