'What is the point in this party?' Analysis reveals tension at heart of Welsh Labour

Welsh Labour is facing questions over its identity ahead of the Senedd election in May, according to a POLITICO analysis.

The political news site published the feature, written by political editor Dan Bloom and Westminster Insider podcast host Sascha O'Sullivan, on Friday (March 13).

"In the old coalfields of south Wales, Britain’s center-left establishment faces being crushed by a nationalist left and populist right," the tagline reads. "POLITICO went to find out why."

The article begins: "Eluned Morgan, the Welsh first minister...declared: 'Wales is ready for a new chapter.' Many voters agree. The problem for Morgan is: few think she’ll be the one to write it."

After outlining recent polling, which suggests Plaid Cymru could form a minority government with Welsh Labour support, with Reform UK close behind, the article goes on to anonymously quote Welsh Labour MPs and insiders.

"[A Plaid win] would raise the simple question, said a senior Welsh Labour official granted anonymity to speak frankly: 'What is the point in this party?’"

Another told POLITICO: "We will have to start again. We rebuild. We figure out, what does Welsh Labour mean in 2026? What do we stand for?"

Of particular focus was Welsh Labour's dramatic loss in the Caerphilly by-election in October 2025. Compared to Plaid Cymru's winning 15,961 votes and Reform UK's 12,113, Labour took just 3,713.

The by-election was treated as a litmus test for political sentiment in Wales ahead of the Senedd election, and Labour's loss showed that "there were a lot of problems," according to a POLITICO source.

They added: "Eluned wasn’t happy with Welsh Labour or the way the campaign was running. She did a lot of lobbying and got the Welsh executive to basically give her complete power over the campaign.”

The writers also highlight the various ways the relationship between Welsh Labour and the current UK Labour government has been presented by the party, from “two Labour governments at both ends of the M4”, to the “red Welsh way”, and now "'trying to find our identity again,' said the MP quoted above."

During her interview with the writers, First Minister Eluned Morgan discussed Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

The article reads: "She has also hitched herself to Starmer for now — unlike Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, who has called for the PM to go. As we sat down, Morgan professed surprise at news that Sarwar called several Cabinet ministers beforehand.

"'Did he! Shit, well, he didn’t call me,” she said."

POLITICO reported that Labour MPs had urged Eluned Morgan to target Reform UK more than Plaid Cymru, though one MP admitted the party had been “quite naive in thinking that the progressives would back us.”

Also examined is the new voting system brought in for this Senedd election, which will "hoover up many resources" for parties "trying to win the sixth seat in each super-constituency".

The article continues: "And the scale means activists have a weaker connection to the candidates they campaign for — compounded in Labour by many Senedd members stepping down. Just six people turned up to one recent Labour door-knocking session in a heartland seat."

Describing Welsh Labour's policies as a "nuts-and-bolts offer of new railway stations, a £2 bus fare cap and same-day mental health care," the writers conclude that while Plaid Cymru's leader Rhun ap Iorwerth will have a celebratory Aperol Spritz if his party wins...

"[Eluned Morgan] would like a cup of tea — milk, no sugar. Perhaps survival would be sweet enough."

The full POLITICO feature, 'Britain’s Labour Party stares into the abyss in its Welsh heartland', is available to read here.