News
Row breaks out over Welsh Secretary's cost of independence claims
Emily Price
A row has broken out over claims the Secretary of State for Wales made about the cost of Welsh independence during a Labour Party conference speech last month.
Jo Stevens claimed that Plaid Cymru’s vision of an independent Wales would cost £21 billion a year.
She warned that independence could drag the country back into austerity with working-age adults paying more than £11,000 extra each year in tax to retain the current level of public services.
The figures she quoted were obtained from perviously unpublished analysis by the UK Government.
Plaid Cymru disputed the figures and accused the Welsh Secretary of "peddling dodgy numbers".
[mid-content-banner]
Current system
House of Commons Library analysis commissioned by Plaid's Westminster leader, Liz Saville Roberts, concluded that Labour's figures describe Wales’ fiscal position within the current UK system - not what the country's finances would look like after independence.
Ms Saville Robert's says the fresh details confirm that there is no data source to support the Welsh Secretary's claim that Welsh independence would cost £21 billion a year.
Asked by Ms Saville Roberts whether Ms Stevens' figures show what Wales’ public finances would look like in year one of independence, the House of Commons Library service said: "While estimates of Wales’ fiscal deficit within the current constitutional settlement offer a starting point for discussing the challenges for an independent Wales’s public finances, they don’t show what the situation would be in year one of an independent Wales."
The independent analysis concluded that the ONS data on which Ms Stevens’ claim is based is rather a "backward-looking estimate of Wales’ fiscal deficit within the UK".
It added: "The public finances of an independent Wales on day one would differ from those outlined in the ONS’s data, due to the policy positions of an independent Welsh Government and the terms of any UK-Wales separation treaty."
[lower-mid-content-banner]
'Dodgy numbers'
The analysis also concluded that the Welsh Secretary's claims ignore the fact that "an independent government would be able to borrow to fund a deficit", as is the case for all sovereign countries.
Ms Saville Roberts said: "The Secretary of State has been caught red-handed peddling dodgy numbers in a panic to distract from her own failures.
"Independent House of Commons Library analysis has exposed her lazy attack for what it is - a distortion of official statistics, not a serious assessment of Wales’s future.
"The House of Commons Library has now confirmed that this so-called ‘£21 billion cost’ is nothing more than a misuse of ONS data.
"The figures describe Wales’s fiscal position within the current UK system, not what our finances would look like after independence.
"Wales’s fiscal deficit is the direct result of Labour and Tory policies that have held back our economy for decades.
"Jo Stevens is only exposing her own party’s failure to grow the Welsh economy within the UK – it says nothing about what an independent Wales could achieve.
"While Labour is mudslinging out of desperation, Plaid Cymru is busy working on bold policies to improve people’s living standards as we approach the crucial Senedd election in May."
Disputed
Nation.Cymru contacted Jo Stevens' office and asked for details of how the UK Government came to its £21 billion a year figure.
Shortly after our question - the UK Government's analysis was published online.
A Wales Office spokesperson said: "The Wales Office findings are based entirely on the most recent official national statistics.
"They are also akin to annually-produced Scottish Government analysis of expenditure and revenue.
"The official ONS data and the Wales Office analysis of it is published in full online and available for members of the public to read."
Plaid Cymru says it stands by its analysis despite the publication of the UK Government stats.
'Labour control'
Liz Saville Roberts added: "We do not dispute that the Wales Office’s figures are based on the most recent official national statistics under the status quo.
"What they do not show is what the fiscal position of an independent Wales would be, which has been confirmed by impartial House of Commons Library research, which says that the public finances of an independent Wales on day one would differ from those outlined in the ONS’s data.
"The Wales Office’s figures simply show the current fiscal situation of Wales under Labour control in both Westminster and Cardiff Bay.
"Plaid Cymru is not proposing a referendum in the first term. Our focus is on strengthening the Welsh economy so that the people of Wales can be confident that independence is not only achievable but offers a stronger, fairer future for our nation."
A Labour Party source claimed Plaid Cymru wasn't being "honest".
They said: "Plaid are running scared from scrutiny of their disastrous plan for independence and talk about borrowing in a way that makes Liz Truss look like a model of fiscal responsibility.
"Labour believes in being transparent and have published this UK Government analysis in full. However, Plaid refuse to be honest about the cost of their independence plan and what it would mean for Wales.
"If they seriously plan to borrow £21.5b each and every year people deserve to know. If not, they need to say what taxes they will raise, or which public services they will cut to fund Independence."
Support our Nation today
For the price of a cup of coffee a month you can help us create an independent, not-for-profit, national news service for the people of Wales, by the people of Wales.
Get more trusted Welsh news
Choose Nation.Cymru as a preferred source in Google News to see more of our journalism.