Populist parties are on the rise across Europe; but how will this impact on the Senedd Elections next year?

Populist parties are on the rise across Europe; but how will this impact on the Welsh Senedd Elections next year?

Several European countries, including Italy, the Netherlands, and Portugal, have recently seen a shift to right-wing politics. Most recently, in Germany’s snap parliamentary elections, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) emerged as the leading party, while Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) came second, doubling their vote share to 21%, with one in five Germans voting for them.

Current polling suggests that Reform UK will make significant gains in next year's Senedd elections in Wales, potentially running neck and neck with Labour. But is this surge due to the appeal of populist parties? And what lessons can be drawn from recent elections on the continent?

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AfD

In a special episode of the Welsh language current affairs programme, Y Byd ar Bedwar, presenter Siôn Jenkins travels to Germany ahead of the election to explore the appeal of the right-wing AfD in its former East Germany strongholds.

The AfD is officially suspected of right-wing extremism by German authorities, and parts of the party have been under government surveillance.

Stefan Möller has been a member of the AfD since its founding in 2013 and currently serves as one of the party's spokespeople in Thuringia. In the September 2024 state parliament election, the party achieved a historic milestone, securing nearly a third of the vote. Möller believes the AfD's success cannot be attributed to any single factor.

“In asylum politics, in climate politics, in energy politics, in the Russia Ukraine war, in all of these, the AfD has taken a position that the other parties aren’t willing to contend with. So we really are offering an alternative. We’ve taken a strict stance on these political issues for many years, even in the face of immense pressure, and voters appreciate that.”

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Eurosceptic party

The AfD started as a Eurosceptic party but has since introduced several key policies that appeal to some German voters. These include economic changes like ditching the euro and bringing back the Deutschmark, as well as foreign policy shifts such as leaving NATO. However, their most impactful policy is stricter immigration controls, including rejecting asylum applications and pushing for the deportation of foreign nationals.

Over the past year, a series of terrorist attacks have occurred in several cities across Germany, including Magdeburg, where a crowd of hundreds was struck by a car. Migrants are responsible for the majority of these attacks, which has fueled support for the AfD.

When asked if the party was capitalising on people's concerns, Stefan Möller admitted that it was part of his role as a politician.

“When people are afraid of something, when there’s something they fear, as a politician, that’s my business. It’s on me to see how I can quell whatever it might be, if indeed I need to quell it, and whether I need to clear things up, but of course it’s my job to take on the worries and afflictions of the people. I’m not elected for any other reason.”

Despite the AfD doubling its vote share, it has been shut out of power in Germany, with all other parties refusing to work with them, creating what is known as a "firewall."

How long this will last remains uncertain, but the question now is: will we see something similar in Wales during next year's Senedd elections with the rise of Reform?

Welsh councillors

Last week Reform doubled the number of their Welsh councillors; and the latest opinion poll for next year's Senedd election suggests that the party will win 23% of the vote - the same figure as the Labour Party.

Llŷr Powell, Communications Officer for Wales stresses Reform aren't looking to AfD for inspiration when it comes to policy ideas - but admits he’s keeping an eye on their tactics.

“Some of the things they say I don’t agree with, but that’s up to the people of Germany… Of course we look over there to see how they work, what is the message they’re putting out in the election, how much money they’ve put into online or the traditional leaflets and things like that. That is something we’re looking at, but policy suggestions and things like that - no.”

Similar to the AfD, one of Reform UK's core policies is immigration. As outlined in their 2024 manifesto, their immigration policy includes measures such as freezing non-essential immigration and rejecting illegal immigrants by returning those who arrive illegally, such as by crossing the English Channel, back to France.

Whether Reform UK's policies will gain traction remains to be seen. The next Senedd election is set for 7 May 2026.

Y Byd ar Bedwar is available to watch on S4C Clic and BBC iPlayer. English subtitles are available.