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Plaid Cymru to finish as largest party as Senedd poll predicts First Minister could lose seat
The First Minister is on course to lose her seat at the next Senedd election, according to a new opinion poll that suggests a dramatic reshaping of Welsh politics.
The ITV Cymru Wales survey, conducted by YouGov in partnership with Cardiff University, indicates that Eluned Morgan’s Welsh Labour party could fail to win any seats in four constituencies – including her own in Ceredigion Penfro.
With just over six weeks until polling day, the MRP model projects Plaid Cymru will emerge as the largest party, despite a fall in vote share to 33%. The party is forecast to win 43 seats in the expanded Senedd, leaving leader Rhun ap Iorwerth six short of an overall majority.
Reform UK is predicted to finish second, narrowing the gap on Plaid after increasing its vote share to 27%. That would translate into 30 seats, marking a significant breakthrough for the party in Wales.
Labour is projected to come third on 13%, equating to just 12 seats. While this represents a modest improvement in vote share, the party would suffer heavy losses under the new electoral system.
The poll also suggests a strong performance for the Greens, who on 12% could secure 10 seats, while the Conservatives are forecast to collapse to just one seat on 7% support. The Liberal Democrats, polling at 5%, are projected to win no seats.
Dr Jac Larner, of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, said the findings pointed to a two-horse race.
“This poll points to a narrowing in the race for largest party between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK,” he said, adding that the contest to form the next government was “firmly between these two parties”.
He said Plaid remained in the strongest position, with more potential coalition options if it falls short of a majority, while Reform would face “far greater constraints” despite its projected gains.
The poll also indicates a competitive battle for third place between Labour and the Greens, with the latter maintaining strong support that appears to be coming from a different pool of voters than Plaid.
Volatility
ITV Cymru Wales political editor Adrian Masters said the figures highlighted continuing volatility in Welsh politics.
“A radically different Senedd is on its way, with a large number of new members and every sign that there will be a change of government,” he said.
The findings are based on a survey of nearly 3,000 adults in Wales conducted between March 9 and 18.
A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said: "Yet another poll confirms that this May’s Senedd election is very much a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK with Plaid Cymru in pole position to offer Wales the new leadership we need and to stop Reform UK.
"Wales now faces a stark choice between two futures.
"On one side, a Plaid Cymru government, led by Rhun ap Iorwerth, standing up for Wales and building a fairer, more ambitious nation: cutting NHS waiting lists, supporting families with the cost of living through free childcare, and creating good, well-paid jobs in a stronger economy.
"On the other, a billionaire backed Reform party full of ex-Tories more interested in getting Nigel Farage into Number 10. They would drag our politics backwards, privatise our NHS, and divide our communities.
"We are within touching distance of forming the next government but we cannot take anything for granted. Every vote will decide the future of Wales. There is real momentum behind Plaid Cymru, but momentum alone won’t deliver change. If you want to stop Reform and choose hope, ambition, and a government that puts Wales first, then that change can only come by voting Plaid Cymru on May 7.”
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