Labour MS blames unpopular government policies and tactical voting for his party's thrashing in Caerphilly

Emily Price

A Labour Senedd Member has blamed unpopular government policies and tactical voting as the reason his party came a distant third in the Caerphilly by-election.

Swansea East MS Mike Hedges made the comments in analysis he penned in an online article for the Labour Hub.

His party was thrashed in the recent by-election in Caerphilly where the former Labour stronghold was won by Plaid Cymru's Lindsay Whittle with 47.38 per cent of the vote.

In second place was Reform UK’s Llŷr Powell on 35.9 per cent, while Welsh Labour’s Richard Tunnicliffe came a very distant third with just 11 per cent of the vote.

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'Unpopular'

Hedges pointed to a number of unpopular Welsh and UK government policies, such as Wales' 20mph speed limit and Keir Starmer's decision to cut winter fuel allowance, as reasons for Labour's humiliating defeat.

In an article for Labour Hub, Hedges wrote: "The Westminster government became very unpopular very quickly. The decision to cut the winter fuel allowance for everyone who was not on pension credits was very unpopular and wrong.

"The right decision has now been made with a cap on income to receive it and not providing it to people living abroad - but a lot of damage had already been done.

"A failed attempt at changing benefits followed and that further weakened support."

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'Derision'

The Senedd backbencher described Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer as "massively unpopular to the stage that people are not listening to him".

He wrote: "The mention of his name provokes derision including from Labour supporters."

Hedges also suggested that some of the Welsh Government's controversial policies had had put off voters in Caerphilly.

The Labour backbencher wrote: "The Welsh Government has made unpopular decisions too and whilst the 20mph default speed limit is generally supported on estate and outside terraced housing it is very unpopular on B roads which are seen as roads joining communities.

"The proposal to expand the Senedd and bring in a different voting system is unpopular with the electorate too - there is a belief that we have enough Senedd members and moving to a complicated voting system only makes it worse."

The Senedd by-election for the key Senedd seat in Caerphilly was triggered following the sudden death of Labour MS Hefin David.

Plaid Cymru's by-election win was Labour's first parliamentary defeat in the constituency for over 100 years.

Defeat

Polling had suggested that Reform's Llŷr Powell would win the seat in Labour’s electoral heartland and join his party's only Senedd Member, Laura Anne Jones, in the Senedd.

Although Reform came second - Powell still gained a hefty 12,113 votes while Labour candidate Richard Tunnicliffe gained only 3,713 votes.

Hedges blamed tactical voting for the massive drop off in Labour support.

He wrote: "Reform has dominated council by elections in the South Wales Valleys since the general election and was expected by them to win Caerphilly comfortably.

"The Labour vote collapsed, a Camlas sponsored poll by Survation in the run up to the by-election suggested that the election was between Plaid Cymru and Reform and Labour were in a distant third place.

"This fed the 'vote Plaid Cymru to stop Reform' strapline being promoted by Plaid Cymru and led to a catastrophic drop in the Labour vote.

"This is a classic example of tactical voting, also of producing a self-fulfilling prophecy."

He added: "Labour voters identified as late as the second week of October, when knocked up on polling day apologised and said 'sorry, but I want to stop Reform, so I am voting Plaid Cymru'."

Historic

In Hedges opinion column, he also pointed to Labour-run Caerphilly Council as part of the reason for Plaid Cymru's historic win.

Days after Labour launched its campaign, the leader of Caerphilly Council, Sean Morgan, dramatically resigned and announced he would back Plaid Cymru's candidate.

Morgan claimed there had been a "fix" for Labour's candidate selection because his deputy leader was unable to stand.

It came following the Labour council's controversial plans to close libraries in the constituency in response to a £29m budget gap.

The proposals were paused in August following a pubic backlash and a legal challenge.

Writing for Labour Hub, Hedges said: "Caerphilly has locally been an unpopular Labour run Council. The library closure programme is both unpopular and unlikely to save substantial sums of money.

"There is a substantial Plaid Cymru group on Caerphilly Council which gave the Plaid Cymru campaign a good start.

"The campaign started badly with the council deputy leader being kept off the shortlist of candidates for the by-election.

"This was followed by the council leader resigning from the Labour party and supporting Plaid Cymru."

Wrapping up his opinion column, Hedges said it's "not the first time" Labour has lost in the South Wales Valleys.

He wrote: "The largest voting block is now the stop reform block who Plaid Cymru successfully won over at the Caerphilly by election.

"Just remember it is just one by-election and there are over six months to the Senedd election."