Fact check: The Conservative Party manifesto

Full Fact via Election Check 24

The Conservative manifesto published on Tuesday included a package of welfare reforms the party claimed “will save taxpayers £12 billion a year”.

But the Institute for Fiscal Studies has challenged that figure, saying: “The policies that have been spelt out are not up to the challenge of saving £12 billion a year.

Some have already been announced and included in the official fiscal forecasts; others are unlikely to deliver sizeable savings on the timescale that the Conservatives claim.”

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Small boats

The manifesto also claimed that last year small boat arrivals to the UK “fell by a third”.

That’s true when comparing 2023 with 2022, but more recent provisional figures show that so far this year small boat arrivals are up 48% compared with the same period last year.

And on debt, the manifesto claimed “debt as a share of GDP is forecast to start falling next year”.

Office for Budget Responsibility figures show that this is true of overall debt, which is forecast to begin falling as a percentage of GDP in 2025/26.

But the same can’t be said for underlying debt, which is what the government’s fiscal target to get debt falling as a percentage of GDP within five years is based on.

Under this measure, debt is only forecast to begin falling as a percentage of GDP in 2028/29.

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